HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Boston last year on this date only had 4". So put that in your pipe. Just relax will ya, maybe read more and post less. Reading as in go to COMET and take a few lessons. Did it even have that much? I know Dec was 0.7" last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I must say the 18Z gefs are signaling torch ahead. No biggie to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Granted I haven't given it my top priority to analyze as rum punch flows through my veins, but it doesn't look that hideous. The 11-15 that is. You don't want a Death Star, but if I knew it would be active, I wouldn't be too worried. Of course, it's very difficult to say how active.Its the period after that where we revert back to more Dec like pattern .. Just cooler version. See texts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Its the period after that where we revert back to more Dec like pattern .. Just cooler version. See texts I saw them. I don't care about bone cold. I care more about qpf in the cold season. It definitely relaxes quite a bit afterwards which has been mentioned for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 This thread rocks tonight, I havent laughed out loud in awhile! DIT going up against the big guns! Im not too worried just yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I saw them. I don't care about bone cold. I care more about qpf in the cold season. It definitely relaxes quite a bit afterwards which has been mentioned for a week.yep and temps are fine,where this torch talk stems from is odd to say the least. Ryan saw EPO relax and immediately posted torch, could be trolling but its really odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 My money is on mid month fwiw, Ginxy is isually on the right track about these things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I must say the 18Z gefs are signaling torch ahead. No biggie to me. Very stormy on gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 BOS at 0.7"? Pure stats argue for a below normal year - maybe even much below if we don't cash in on something in the next few weeks. Just saying, pure stats also argued for below normal snowfall last winter too. They can cut both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 yep and temps are fine,where this torch talk stems from is odd to say the least. Ryan saw EPO relax and immediately posted torch, could be trolling but its really odd. Well we are talking two different things. It could get ugly after, but weeklies aren't terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Btw 58 had a massive SSW in late Jan that we aren't getting this year. BIG difference I'd much rather are a SSW, but w do not need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The plan all along was for everyone to have conceded the first half of winter, now here we are, 2 weeks into met winter, and folks are jumping because we haven't piled up snow and do not look to in the immediate future. Crazy hobby we have. You seem surprisingly fine to punt all of December and January. I don't think you can hold it against some folks if that isn't their ideal winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Just saying, pure stats also argued for below normal snowfall last winter too. They can cut both ways. Yea, stats are a tool like anything else. Obviously they favor a dud, so we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 You seem surprisingly fine to punt all of December and January. I don't think you can hold it against some folks if that isn't their ideal winter though. My point was more that people fell for that carrot that modeling dangled......not that everyone should love punting most of met winter. There was always a decent shot that January would not produce much of anything, and I tried to convey that in my outlook by not expecting much until at least the third week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 You seem surprisingly fine to punt all of December and January. I don't think you can hold it against some folks if that isn't their ideal winter though. I think we all would have his patience if we experienced what he experienced last winter. He and the BOS folks are free rolling for like the next couple winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I saw them. I don't care about bone cold. I care more about qpf in the cold season. It definitely relaxes quite a bit afterwards which has been mentioned for a week. Yeah I'm also not a big fan of the huge cold, I sort of like where we are. Normal temps or even above with some messy systems possible, we'll take our chances. I just know that December torch isn't coming back so there will be snow chances even in above normal patterns (as long as it's only +3 and not +10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I think we all would have his patience if we experienced what he experienced last winter. He and the BOS folks are free rolling for like the next couple winters. True, but it would also be idiotic of me to melt weeks before I had even outlooked much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Maybe it goes to $hit and I, along with some others crash and burn. Possible, but its far to early to entertain that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 My point was more that people fell for that carrot that modeling dangled......not that everyone should love punting most of met winter. There was always a decent shot that January would not produce much of anything, and I tried to convey that in my outlook by not expecting much until at least the third week of January. Ah I misinterpreted it a bit then. My bad. I just saw the NBD and thought you were saying it's no big deal to punt until February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Ah I misinterpreted it a bit then. My bad. I just saw the NBD and thought you were saying it's no big deal to punt until February. I mean NBD relative to the game plan.....if we hit mid Feb still starting at the long range, then I'll sweat. Don't expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 True, but it would also be idiotic of me to melt weeks before I had even outlooked much of anything. Of course. Stick to your guns, not hating at all. I'm still patient but I don't want to rely on an epic Feb to do the trick. So I'm hoping we get something in this great pattern that's been advertised before it possibly relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 True, but it would also be idiotic of me to melt weeks before I had even outlooked much of anything. Yeah good point, haha. Can't make a forecast and then melt when things go according to plan even if as a snow weenie it's not what you want. Fair point and explains why you seem so confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I thought euro ensembles looked fine. What is with the arctic cold fetish in here? I'm with scooter...give me an active pattern and -1 to +1 is fine. The cold fetishes will have their chance anyway in the D8-12 time range with a potential storm threat in there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I can get really abrasive at times, flaw of mine.....but believe me, I see why people are worried. Completely understandable. I think its early, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Maybe it goes to $hit and I, along with some others crash and burn. Possible, but its far to early to entertain that. Well that's the thing in forecasting. The goal is if you are going to be wrong, only be wrong once. Why change now to have your original forecast verify in the end? Then you would be wrong twice essentially. Unless you are sure that things have changed, you are right it's silly to punt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I thought euro ensembles looked fine. What is with the arctic cold fetish in here? I'm with scooter...give me an active pattern and -1 to +1 is fine. The cold fetishes will have their chance anyway in the D8-12 time range with a potential storm threat in there too. And I'm saying this as someone who needs a little more cold than most on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Well that's the thing in forecasting. The goal is if you are going to be wrong, only be wrong once. Why change now to have your original forecast verify in the end? Then you would be wrong twice essentially. Unless you are sure that things have changed, you are right it's silly to punt now. Good post. Read my mind. Believe me, I won't stick to my guns just to be stubborn.....the moment that I think my thoughts are in trouble, I'll blog it, post it.....everyone will know. I'm not there yet....not that everyone is waiting in my every breath, but you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I thought euro ensembles looked fine. What is with the arctic cold fetish in here? I'm with scooter...give me an active pattern and -1 to +1 is fine. The cold fetishes will have their chance anyway in the D8-12 time range with a potential storm threat in there too. That's my kind of winter, im not a pack guy. So I'll take my chances with marginal events as long as it keeps coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 I thought euro ensembles looked fine. What is with the arctic cold fetish in here? I'm with scooter...give me an active pattern and -1 to +1 is fine. The cold fetishes will have their chance anyway in the D8-12 time range with a potential storm threat in there too. Sometimes I feel like I am on an island by myself but then in comes Scooter and Will on a 60 foot yacht loaded with babes and beers to rescue me. I just dont get the angst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Should go back and read 2 weeks prior to all hell breaking loose last year. Bet dime to dollar the comments would be almost identical from the same unnamed posters. Many of the doubters, fencers you could copy and past right into this thread and not tell the difference.....just sayin..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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