cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 One saving grace for some of the hardest hit areas from northern IL eastward will be some warmer temps tomorrow evening. Euro shows temps rising to near 40 in many of the areas that were hit the hardest by icing. That could help out the crews as they head out to restore outages, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1214 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 UPDATE 1113 AM CST HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES YET TO THE HEADLINES FOR MONDAY. DO ANTICIPATE UPGRADING THE WATCHES TO WARNINGS AND ISSUING SOME SORT OF WINTER ADVISORY HEADLINE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH. WE HOPE TO HAVE UPDATED HEADLINES OUT BY ABOUT 2PM CST. THIS CONTINUES TO BE AN EXTREMELY CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING UNCERTAINTY. FORECAST IS VERY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS IN WHAT TYPE. CONSIDERING HOW STRONG THE EAST WINDS WILL BE...GUSTING TO 45-50 MPH...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ICE ACCRETION ON TREES AND POWERLINES TO CAUSE HUGE PROBLEMS. WINDS LOOK TO BE EVEN STRONGER ONTO THE ILLINOIS SHORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH OR SO. IN ADDITION TO LARGE BATTERING WAVES CAUSING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKESHORE FLOODING...THE WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR WIND DAMAGE THEMSELVES. DID A QUICK COMPARISON TO THE HALLOWEEN 2014 WIND AND LAKESHORE FLOODING EVENT...AND THE MINOR LIMITING FACTOR TOMORROW WILL BE SHORTER FETCH DUE TO EAST WIND DIRECTION ON MONDAY VS. THE DUE NORTH WINDS IN THE HALLOWEEN '14 EVENT. WILL STILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BE ISSUING A LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING TOMORROW FOR COOK AND LAKE IL. IN THE NEAR TERM...DESPITE LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS...THE LONG FETCH OF NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT HAS RESULTED IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SHRA. ABOUT AN HOUR AGO...THERE WERE EVEN A FEW 35 DBZ ECHOES IN THE ACTIVITY...WHICH HAVE COME DOWN SOME SINCE. HOWEVER...STARTING TO SEE AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE OF ECHOES AGAIN AS OF THIS WRITING. ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA WITH MUCH OF THE LIGHT RAIN STAYING SOUTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RC/IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Enjoy the ice storm guys Not even a flash freeze for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 EURO finally locking onto the NAM track. Hopefully it's just mostly sleet for me because I don't want a significant, let alone major, ice storm. We get it - you don't want ice or snow. That's fine - but you've mentioned it about 10 times. I think we should all move to Hawaii and enjoy the weather there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 We get it - you don't want ice or snow. That's fine - but you've mentioned it about 10 times. I think we should all move to Hawaii and enjoy the weather there. The snow is what I prefer. It's just the ice that I do not want. Hopefully it won't be too bad here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Cold air wraps around the low on the EURO pretty quickly... If the WRF ARW or NMM have got a handle on this then it doesn't get above freezing until 6pm Monday here. Large pool of really low dewpoints and temps in southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Not even a flash freeze for us. Well enjoy gusts to 60 and do extra posting to make up for all the regulars about to lose power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 DVN with a little update... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL1213 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015MAIN FORECAST FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE DETAILS OF PRECIPITATIONTYPE/TRENDS/AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUEDWINTER STORM WATCH WITH ADDITIONAL HEADLINES UNDER CONSIDERATIONFOR AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ONSIMILAR TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION ONSET NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTERMIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AFTER INITIAL LOOK...AMINCLINED TO THINK HEAVIEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A BIT FARTHERNORTH THAN CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH WOULD BULLSEYE AREAS NEAR THEINTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. COMBINATION OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW AND WINDSGUSTING TO 45 MPH MEANS DOWNED LIMBS AND POWER LINES ANDASSOCIATED POWER OUTAGES ARE STILL A BIG CONCERN. PRECIPITATIONINTENSITY MAY LEAD TO MORE ROAD SURFACE RUNOFF THAN ACTUAL ICEACCUMULATION AT TIMES...BUT PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT ICING ARE STILLEXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF FOR SNOWFALLACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR WORKS IN...WITH THE HIGHERTOTALS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Certainly seems reasonable based on the model trends. If rates stay lighter, could be catastrophic in areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Ugh this is looking bad IMBY, 12z NAM and GFS are both showing around 1/2" freezing rain 1/2" sleet and 1"+ total qpf with 40mph wind gusts... It Would be category 3 on that ice storm damage scale posted a bit ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Seriously though, no one is seeing 1/2 inch of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Seriously though, no one is seeing 1/2 inch of ice bump troll potential: 7 out of 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Geesh^ quite the duration of ice for here on that loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 bump troll potential: 7 out of 10 This setup would be so much more interesting without 3 major strikes against ice; heavy precip rates, heavy winds, super marginal surface temps after a month of record warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Certainly seems reasonable based on the model trends. If rates stay lighter, could be catastrophic in areas. Was just thinking if the east/northeast dry flow cuts back on the intensity of the precipitation, that could be a scenario - for awhile at least. Of course usually freezing rain does not fall when the atmosphere is struggling to saturate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 bump troll potential: 7 out of 10Never say never in meteorology, going to be an easy bust on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This setup would be so much more interesting without 3 major strikes against ice; heavy precip rates, heavy winds, super marginal surface temps after a month of record warmth. It'll be interesting to see if high winds have an impact on the ice buildup. Strongest winds look to lag the onset of precip a little. Since you mentioned the negatives, a couple positives are that we are in late December and have a very strong surface high to the north/east that only slowly retreats (LOT mentioned near-record low level easterly flow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This setup would be so much more interesting without 3 major strikes against ice; heavy precip rates, heavy winds, super marginal surface temps after a month of record warmth. I think the ice threat at ground level will be pretty marginal given the recent warmth/heavy rates/marginal temps. However, elevated objects such as trees/power lines/etc will have significant glazing where the heaviest freezing rain falls. Even with heavy rates the drops will split up and mist down on lower branches and glaze up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Maybe not as many skating rinks for parking lots....but trees will build it up fast imo...wherever that "sweet spot" sets up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Winter Storm Watch up for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I think the ice threat at ground level will be pretty marginal given the recent warmth/heavy rates/marginal temps. However, elevated objects such as trees/power lines/etc will have significant glazing where the heaviest freezing rain falls. Even with heavy rates the drops will split up and mist down on lower branches and glaze up. Ground level may not be bad but one thing to remember is that many areas will start as sleet. If a base of sleet gets put down, could make things slippery as it changes to zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The trees are definitely the most in danger of getting glazed over. And with all the wind events we've had in the last two months, some branches have probably been cracked and weakened already. I've lost more tree branches, then I have in any singular severe thunderstorm over the last 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 La Crosse sits in a good spot on clown maps...we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Down to a 30° dewpoint. Just had a light LES shower pass through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Ground level may not be bad but one thing to remember is that many areas will start as sleet. If a base of sleet gets put down, could make things slippery as it changes to zr. Good point. Yeah should develop a nice base of sleet before the primary freezing rain band moves north. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a good inch of sleet here before the glazing really gets going. La Crosse sits in a good spot on clown maps...we'll see... Man it's a tough forecast for La Crosse. Some models keep you all snow, while others give you a sleet fest before a relatively short period of snow to finish things off. Hopefully the 00z runs clear things up a bit for you guys in or near the main snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 18z NAM seems like it's nudging east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 18z NAM seems like it's nudging east. And it's a tick colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Pretty marginal tick east thru hr 33. Doesn't seem to make much difference...so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Entire 12z suite of tracks minus the EURO storm track. Good consensus right over the local area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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