Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nudging the snow further east also. Low east all the way near Cyclone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Last 3 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Numerous Roads and Houses are flooded around here with no end in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If the east trend continues... wooh mama. Numerous Roads and Houses are flooded around here with no end in sight You okay right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 If the east trend continues... wooh mama. You okay right now? Yea im good where I'm at MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0707NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 947 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MO...SOUTHERN IL...SOUTHWEST IN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY VALID 270245Z - 270845Z SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS VERY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREA. DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO FOCUS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY OUT AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY MOIST AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY REGION AND INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE SLOWLY APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW IS CREATING A VERY DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE REGION WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING...AND THERE ARE ROBUST H25 RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS THAT ARE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AT LEAST A MODEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. AREA VWPS SHOW A 40 TO 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET SURGING NORTH INTO THE FRONT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUSTAIN THIS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. PWATS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES AND THIS IS 3 TO 4 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THEREFORE...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE CONVECTION TO FOSTER INTENSE RAINFALL RATES...WHICH WILL APPROACH 2 INCHES/HR LOCALLY. VERY HEAVY RAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IL...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH A VERY GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE CONVECTIVE AXIS THAT WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOUTHWEST IN. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS AN AXIS OF 2 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 08Z FROM SOUTHWEST MO NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IN AND GENERALLY RIGHT ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WHERE FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN SUCH ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT GIVEN WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND THE EXPECTATION OF CONVECTION TO TEND TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. ORRISON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'm going to presume that the EURO will trend east as the NAM trended east. Hopefully this puts me out of the siggy ice zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Interesting that the NAM doesn't have any real freezing rain in the local area now. Must be sleet to rain to snow then. Yeah I hope you're on a high spot Central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Been noticing this band on simulated reflectivity products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That band could contain some really gusty winds. Looks like the 4km NAM coming in a touch farther east than the 12km. NAM has a very brief period of rain here, everything else is frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Chicagoland/NW IN (away from immediate shore) looks very icy on the 00z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Chicagoland/NW IN (away from immediate shore) looks very icy on the 00z RGEM. RGEM has the most ice for pretty much ANYWHERE getting freezing rain in awhile, could be a real power outage causer from Illinois to Michigan. Edit: It also ticked about 15 miles to the Southeast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Chicagoland/NW IN (away from immediate shore) looks very icy on the 00z RGEM. Hard to get ice with heavy precip rates and warm surfaces especially with temps just under freezing I just don't see more than a tenth or two anywhere outside maybe cyclone77 town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Hard to get ice with heavy precip rates and warm surfaces especially with temps just under freezing I just don't see more than a tenth or two anywhere outside maybe cyclone77 town Reasons to be cautious and not take the maps verbatim, but I think the > 2 tenths area could be more widespread than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Chicagoland/NW IN (away from immediate shore) looks very icy on the 00z RGEM. Low was a bit further east. Cuts up towards Port Washington, WI. Keeps trending that way, there's going to be more real estate ending up with IP and ZR accumulations. 0Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Chicagoland/NW IN (away from immediate shore) looks very icy on the 00z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Latest model trends are indicating a significant thump of snow for the Golden Horseshoe (Toronto) and points eastward along the north shore of Lake Ontario. The 00z GFS dumps 6"+ of snow from Monday evening into early Tuesday morning before changing to ice pellets and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Hard to get ice with heavy precip rates and warm surfaces especially with temps just under freezing I just don't see more than a tenth or two anywhere outside maybe cyclone77 town Definitely not going to be a repeat of 12/26/08 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 There is definitely a southeast trend going on, still before the rain switchover places could get 0.2-0.3 ice, and with the wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zabbko Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 That band could contain some really gusty winds. PWwind0zNAM.png Looks like the 4km NAM coming in a touch farther east than the 12km. NAM has a very brief period of rain here, everything else is frozen. New to the forum, and relatively new to the area, so don't understand winters near the lakes yet. Why does this setup not cause LES to the west of the lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Regular CMC coming in hot, further southeast. I also don't get IWX's current Point and Click, literally no model supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 New to the forum, and relatively new to the area, so don't understand winters near the lakes yet. Why does this setup not cause LES to the west of the lakes? Welcome to the sub forum and the region! LES (in this case it would be called lake enhanced snowfall) doesn't happen in this setup because the air aloft is warmer than the ground temperature. If you would have been around here during the historic November snowstorm, areas near the lake picked additional snow with an onshore flow. In that setup, the temperature decreased with height all the way up the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The Kuchera snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Regular CMC coming in hot, further southeast. I also don't get IWX's current Point and Click, literally no model supports it. Might want to look again. GGEM is practically the same spot as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The Mississippi River at Chester, IL is now forecasted to crest at a record level of 49.8' eclipsing, albeit just barely, the flood of 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The Mississippi River at Chester, IL is now forecasted to crest at a record level of 49.8' eclipsing, albeit just barely, the flood of 1993. Wow, impressive stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zabbko Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Welcome to the sub forum and the region! LES (in this case it would be called lake enhanced snowfall) doesn't happen in this setup because the air aloft is warmer than the ground temperature. If you would have been around here during the historic November snowstorm, areas near the lake picked additional snow with an onshore flow. In that setup, the temperature decreased with height all the way up the column. I have much to learn... Thanks! Loving it here so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Latest model trends are indicating a significant thump of snow for the Golden Horseshoe (Toronto) and points eastward along the north shore of Lake Ontario. The 00z GFS dumps 6"+ of snow from Monday evening into early Tuesday morning before changing to ice pellets and rain.Yes I'm liking the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Hm... am I expecting all rain? Sleet and some ZR? Maybe even some flakes? Could probably put those options on a dartboard and throw a dart blindly and be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 4.43 at STL today as of 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Might want to look again. GGEM is practically the same spot as 12z. Lol classic. Maybe he's blind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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