Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Here's the newest CMC freezing rain and sleet maps. Grids in southern WI calling for 0.1-0.2" of ice currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Euro no longer taking the low through central Iowa. Instead, it takes the low through eastern Iowa, although it's between hour 48 and 72. Chalk one up for the GFS/CMC team!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Chalk one up for the GFS/CMC team!? Didnt the ggem.and gfs show a chicago snowstorm not that long ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 12z Euro has the low around WI Dells at hr 72, west of the GFS/GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Didnt the ggem.and gfs show a chicago snowstorm not that long ago? Correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Didnt the ggem.and gfs show a chicago snowstorm not that long ago? GGEM did at one point. 6-12" on one run from the 24th I believe. GFS was never really big on snowfall amounts. 3-5" band for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 GGEM did at one point. 6-12" on one run from the 24th I believe. GFS was never really big on snowfall amounts. 3-5" band for the most part. Right but it also had a track way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Right but it also had a track way south. I think the farthest south track was with the CMC and it took the low across Cairo, IL to just north of Evansville and up through western IN. That was only one run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 12z Euro has the low around WI Dells at hr 72, west of the GFS/GEM Just curious... Where was it at 84 on the 0z... Asked another way, how big of a shift east is the 12z relative to 0z? Based on tropical tidbits it looks like it may be a tick west as compared to 12z yesterday. I feel like we are riding the line up here in MSP, especially for me in the far west metro. Although even the GFS tries to throw us a couple inches back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I think the farthest south track was with the CMC and it took the low across Cairo, IL to just north of Evansville and up through western IN. That was only one run though. A couple GFS runs took the low between Cleveland and Toledo. The problem was it was being too stingy with the cold sector precip, which is why its progged snowfall amounts were so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I think the euro people should cancel the next planned upgrade. The king has returned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Just curious... Where was it at 84 on the 0z... Asked another way, how big of a shift east is the 12z relative to 0z? Based on tropical tidbits it looks like it may be a tick west as compared to 12z yesterday. I feel like we are riding the line up here in MSP, especially for me in the far west metro. Although even the GFS tries to throw us a couple inches back this way. I'm using my phone at the moment so I can't access the good data. But using the Wunderground 12z Euro map it appears there is a bullseye of heavy snow around MSP and E/C MN. Swath of 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Just curious... Where was it at 84 on the 0z... Asked another way, how big of a shift east is the 12z relative to 0z? Based on tropical tidbits it looks like it may be a tick west as compared to 12z yesterday. I feel like we are riding the line up here in MSP, especially for me in the far west metro. Although even the GFS tries to throw us a couple inches back this way. Nah, you're fine in the Twin Cities. EURO snowfall map over-layed onto GE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Looks like the 12z ECMWF got a tad colder at the surface across the region compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Nah, you're fine in the Twin Cities. EURO snowfall map over-layed onto GE. euro12z_mnwi.png Yeah really? They are gold up there. Euro has the hot hand with this and that is what i am gonna ride with this event till the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 12z guidance continues to show some impressive wind potential Monday north of the low. The 4km NAM shows a broad area of 20-30kts sustained winds across the corn belt. Winds up at 900mb are in the 55-65kt range. The GFS even shows a pocket of 70kts at 850mb over northern IL at 18z Monday. With bands of heavy precip moving through I'm thinking there could be some mixing down of some of that higher momentum stuff. Maybe we can even get some gravity wave action for some further enhancement. At the least it's looking like a period of advisory level winds to be sure. Wouldn't rule out the need for a warning, especially along Lake Michigan. With freezing rain/winter weather advisories in place by that time it may make for some messy headlines. I guess we'll see. These are from the 12z 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 12z guidance continues to show some impressive wind potential Monday north of the low. The 4km NAM shows a broad area of 20-30kts sustained winds across the corn belt. Winds up at 900mb are in the 55-65kt range. The GFS even shows a pocket of 70kts at 850mb over northern IL at 18z Monday. With bands of heavy precip moving through I'm thinking there could be some mixing down of some of that higher momentum stuff. Maybe we can even get some gravity wave action for some further enhancement. At the least it's looking like a period of advisory level winds to be sure. Wouldn't rule out the need for a warning, especially along Lake Michigan. With freezing rain/winter weather advisories in place by that time it may make for some messy headlines. I guess we'll see. These are from the 12z 4km NAM. There's that low level cold/stable layer to contend with though, so I'm not sure how deep mixing will be. That being said, the NAM has winds as low as 950 mb in the 40-45 kt range, and that's with its weaker solution. GFS is more like 45-55 kts at 950 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Was looking at SREF plumes, areas away from the city, north of I-88 and inland from the lake stay below freezing most if not all day Monday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Unfortunately, it's looking like a bust for my neck of the woods in Toronto. Just not enough cold air and too much moderation from Lake Ontario. Ottawa and Montreal look to really cash in, though, especially on Tuesday. Really? You should look at the models again. All ideals give yyz a decent snow before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Nah, you're fine in the Twin Cities. EURO snowfall map over-layed onto GE. euro12z_mnwi.png I'm using my phone at the moment so I can't access the good data. But using the Wunderground 12z Euro map it appears there is a bullseye of heavy snow around MSP and E/C MN. Swath of 12". Thanks for the intel. I know it is outside of this forum but damn that map convinces me that NW IA and Souix Falls have found and activated their snow magnets this year. They have been reeling it in all fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Nah, you're fine in the Twin Cities. EURO snowfall map over-layed onto GE. euro12z_mnwi.png I'm down with that - just arrived in Bloomington for the week. On the drive up today, the ground was dusted starting around 40 miles north of the Dells. Looks like about 3 or 4" here on the southwest side. Nice to see ponds and lakes iced and covered as well - as close as Eau Claire things were still open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Thanks for the intel. I know it is outside of this forum but damn that map convinces me that NW IA and Souix Falls have found and activated their snow magnets this year. They have been reeling it in all fall. I may have to make a trip and steal it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 18z NAM places low right where the 12z EURO showed it. In other words, sleet storm for me, as the NAM shows. I would rather prefer sleet than freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 I don't think the NAM has a clue still. It's jumping the SLP all over the place in OK, and AR. It has the heaviest snow well west of where the EURO has it. Maybe it will get a clue by the 6z runs. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015122618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=069 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Think I looked at like every possible 12z model lol...anyway, subject to change but my first guess for here would be sleet changing to freezing rain changing to rain with ice amounts perhaps in the 0.15-0.25" range. Always have to keep in mind marine and urban effects around here...as far as marine, winds look to be almost due east or just a bit north of due east which means that there would be little marine influence at my location with most of the marine effects farther up the shore in IL/WI. As has been mentioned numerous times, winds should magnify the impact of whatever ice occurs, but that amount of ice shouldn't be too damaging. Would get more concerned if amounts go over a quarter inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Major Flooding starting in parts of St Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 LOT afternoon disco 314 PM...FORECAST FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REMAINS FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND LAKE SHORE FLOODING POTENTIAL. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARKLATEX SUNDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHWEST IL OR NORTHEAST IA MONDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY CONVERGING ON THIS TRACK THOUGH SPEED OF THE LOW HAS SLOWED JUST A BIT...WHICH WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE MID 30S SUNDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO NEAR FREEZING FROM THE CHICAGO LAKEFRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD OF MAINLY SLEET...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW...BEFORE CHANGING TO MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY... TRANSITIONING PRECIP OVER TO JUST RAIN AND HAVE SPED UP THIS CHANGE OVER TO RAIN JUST A BIT IN THE GRIDS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH QPF WILL BE FALLING WHILE TEMPS ARE STILL AT OR BELOW FREEZING AND CAN THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS KEEP ENOUGH COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN UNDER THE FALLING PRECIP TO KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. ITS GOING TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THE WARMER AIR SPREADING NORTH ALONG WITH WARMER RAIN FALLING VS THE COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN. IN ADDITION...TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AND SOME DISTANCE INLAND...MAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE MAINTAINED ICE AMOUNTS MAINLY IN THE 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH RANGE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL AND NORTHWEST IL. WITH THESE AMOUNTS...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW LONG PRECIP CAN REMAIN FREEZING RAIN...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PART OF THE NORTHERN CWA. AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA AS THE EVENT NEARS. AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL. TOTAL QPF FOR THIS EVENT FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...THUS THIS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISES ON ALREADY HIGH/ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN WITH VERY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. CURRENTLY HAVE WIND GUSTS 40-45 MPH MONDAY BUT ITS POSSIBLE WINDS GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IL AND ALONG THE LAKE FRONT. NO HEADLINES FOR THESE WINDS YET EITHER... BUT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE CWA...THUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING. THESE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PILE UP THE WAVES ALONG THE IL LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE AND ITS POSSIBLE WAVES MAY REACH 14 TO 18 FEET... ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NORTHERLY ISLAND AND WILL BE ISSUING A LAKE SHORE FLOOD WATCH FOR COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES IN IL FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Latest MPX graphic. Looks like they're favoring a blend between the EURO and GFS/CMC for snow band placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 MPX isn't very good at updating their graphics. That was from this morning. Their morning disco focuses on the Euro. Winter Storm Watches posted for MN and WI. Currently 6-10" in the point for this storm. This after 3-4" this morning. Reeling winter in, finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 MPX isn't very good at updating their graphics. That was from this morning. Their morning disco focuses on the Euro. Winter Storm Watches posted for MN and WI. Currently 6-10" in the point for this storm. This after 3-4" this morning. Reeling winter in, finally. Congrats on the 3-4"! ARX is on top of their graphics. DLL better get his shovel out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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