Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Looking at hourly GGEM precip type maps, a lot of sleet and some rain for Chicago with the main storm. Significant freezing rain just south of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 00z GEM would be a sleet storm for the ages for this area. Heavy sleet for 12hrs+ verbatim. Would possibly give the GHD11 LAF sleet storm a run for it's money lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Same here Cyclone. GGEM precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Same here Cyclone. GGEM precip maps. 0zCMC62.png 0zCMC66.png 0zCMC69.png 0zCMC72.png GFS has slightly less ice for us. CMC throws more at us. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 00z GEM would be a sleet storm for the ages for this area. Heavy sleet for 12hrs+ verbatim. Would possibly give the GHD11 LAF sleet storm a run for it's money lol. I pray for your soul if that happens. I still wake up with nightmares from that storm. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 FWIW, I was poking around on the CIPS site using various domains and came across 12/3/1990. Anyone remember that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 FWIW, I was poking around on the CIPS site using various domains and came across 12/3/1990. Anyone remember that storm? And Alek will like this...Meigs Field had several hours of gusts over 50 mph with a peak gust of 69 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 And Alek will like this...Meigs Field had several hours of gusts over 50 mph with a peak gust of 69 mph. If the south trend continues, that system's insane cousin could come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 If the south trend continues, that system's insane cousin could come to fruition. What south trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 So it's the EURO/NAM team vs. the GFS/CMC team. Who will cave first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 New Euro takes the surface low up into central Iowa. Model shenanigans continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 NAM seems like it's having some issues with the strength of the surface low. Non-NAM models about 8-10 mb deeper at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 What south trend?I don't see one. We seem to have two camps, Euro (and Nam) vs the GFS.Edit: Geos with the ninja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 UK Met is kind of in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 For 95% of us it's looking like it's going to come down to how much cold air holds before the WAA overtakes and changes it to rain. Snow is looking pretty meager for all but the far northwest portion of the sub. My gut feeling for here is we see a period of heavy sleet before switching over to all rain, and then dry slot/drizzle fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The main differences I'm seeing between last night's runs with the further SE track and tonight's runs with the further NW track is that the models trended deeper with with the primary shortwave (closed off low) and slightly weaker with the lead shortwave. A deeper closed low of course allows for more rapid cyclonegenesis/stacking (ala the NAM) to occur. Meanwhile, tomorrow's lead wave just being slightly stronger would help to push the baroclinic zone and the CAA from the arctic high seep further south before the primary shortwave ejects. So it wouldn't take much to get back to the colder / SE solution we had before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Nice of you to share your thoughts Powerball. I always knew the baroclinic zone location was one of the key deciding factors. If the CMC pulls it off, then Hawkeye up into southern WI cash in big time. If though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The main differences I'm seeing between last night's runs with the further SE track and tonight's runs with the further NW track is that the models trended deeper with with the primary shortwave (closed off low) and slightly weaker with the lead shortwave. A deeper closed low of course allows for more rapid cyclonegenesis/stacking (ala the NAM) to occur. Meanwhile, tomorrow's lead wave just being slightly stronger would help to push the baroclinic zone and the CAA from the arctic high seep further south before the primary shortwave ejects. So it wouldn't take much to get back to the colder / SE solution we had before. That's a fair point that a lot of local met's brought up, we will probably have a better idea during the 12 and 18Z Runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 For 95% of us it's looking like it's going to come down to how much cold air holds before the WAA overtakes and changes it to rain. Snow is looking pretty meager for all but the far northwest portion of the sub. My gut feeling for here is we see a period of heavy sleet before switching over to all rain, and then dry slot/drizzle fest. I think this is the reasonable call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 So it's the EURO/NAM team vs. the GFS/CMC team. Who will cave first? Haven't the Canadian and the American models already begun the trend toward the European Model ? To me, pretty typical of an El Niño year to see this occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Anyone know where the axis of heavy rain sets up on euro? American models are pretty much in agreement with where heaviest axis sets up and the GEM to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Nice of you to share your thoughts Powerball. I always knew the baroclinic zone location was one of the key deciding factors. If the CMC pulls it off, then Hawkeye up into southern WI cash in big time. If though... That would be terrible for Hawkeye since he mentioned he wasn't craving any snowfall at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Anyone know where the axis of heavy rain sets up on euro? American models are pretty much in agreement with where heaviest axis sets up and the GEM to some degree Heaviest axis runs from around STL, to just north of IND to TOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Haven't the Canadian and the American models already begun the trend toward the European Model ? To me, pretty typical of an El Niño year to see this occur. Well as far as today goes the GFS and CMC really haven't moved much. There's a clear separation between those two and the EURO/NAM camp. CMC last night was more south and it really clocked N IL, SE WI, and S MI with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 That would be terrible for Hawkeye since he mentioned he wasn't craving any snowfall at all. Yeah I caught that from him. Pivotal Weather map had him down for 17". Regarding Powerball's thoughts, I have seen last minute shifts due to baroclinic zones settling further south before. I think we all have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 For 95% of us it's looking like it's going to come down to how much cold air holds before the WAA overtakes and changes it to rain. Snow is looking pretty meager for all but the far northwest portion of the sub. My gut feeling for here is we see a period of heavy sleet before switching over to all rain, and then dry slot/drizzle fest. Any thoughts on ice (if not your backyard then in general)? With marginal temps and potentially heavy precip, I think leaning conservative makes sense at this point...like generally a band of a quarter inch or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 26, 2015 Author Share Posted December 26, 2015 Looking like a nice rain event around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 CMC freezing rain accumulation. And Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Any thoughts on ice (if not your backyard then in general)? With marginal temps and potentially heavy precip, I think leaning conservative makes sense at this point...like generally a band of a quarter inch or lower. With the way the models are bouncing around it's definitely gonna take another day or two to pin down the best glazing potential. A lot of the precip forecast displays from various models indicate more sleet than freezing rain in the transition areas, but those probably aren't the most accurate. The lack of snow cover over most of the region is a bit of a concern. Snow cover can help delay WAA to some extent at the surface, but we won't have that pretty much anywhere in the impact area. The only tool to maintain a subfreezing surface layer is the dry easterlies on the south side of that big high pressure. Whatever glazing we get will probably be significantly less than what we would have received if a substantial snow pack was in place region wide. I'm thinking for most of us it will be either sleet or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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