Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Pretty impressive coupled jet on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah that's impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Yeah that's impressive. Which is why I have trouble buying how dry the GFS is. Granted, the 00z run was wetter than the 12z run. If anything, an argument can be made that the models are underdoing cold sector QPF. You have a wide open Gulf / Atlantic, that nice coupled jet structure, significant STJ interaction and a closed off low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Its hard to believe this will come so far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 New disco from LOT. MOST SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF CONCERN IS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ASTHE EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.THIS WILL PROVIDE A STEADY FEED OF COLD AND DRY AIR DRIVEN BYGUSTY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO DEEP CLOSED LOWAND ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTH FROM THEARKLATEX. THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP WITH COLD DRY AIR IN PLACE...ATLEAST AS IT APPEARS FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...INDICATES A HIGHLIKELIHOOD OF STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS PRECIPITATION LIFTSNORTH INTO THE AREA.THERE WAS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN LOW PRESSURE TRACK AND MODELTHERMAL FIELDS IN THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THEGFS AND GEM WITH A COLDER AND MAINLY SNOWY SOLUTION FOR MUCH OFTHE CWA. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE ECMWF WITH A VERYSTRONG SURGE OF WARMTH ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN PARTIAL OR FULLMELTING OF ICE CRYSTALS ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. IN THISSOLUTION...MAIN THREAT WOULD BE ICING...POTENTIALLYSIGNIFICANT...UNTIL A POSSIBLE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW/SLEET.CONSIDERING THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND ALSO IN THE INDIVIDUALGEFS ENSEMBLES RE. STORM TRACK IN ADDITION TO BIG DIFFERENCES INTHERMAL FIELDS...INDICATED A COMBINATION OF ALL PRECIPITATIONTYPES IN THE GRIDS MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. DID SHOW A CHANGEBACK TO SNOW AND SLEET NORTHWEST 2/3 MONDAY NIGHT.THERE IS JUST TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT TO HAVE MORE OF ADETERMINISTIC FORECAST...AND STORM TRACK PLUS EVOLUTION OFFEATURES ALOFT WILL BE INTEGRAL IN DETERMINING PREDOMINANTPRECIPITATION TYPES. WITH THAT BEING SAID...CONCERN IS GROWING INA POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 New disco from LOT. That's the afternoon one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That's the afternoon one. My bad, still thought I was reading the 6pm update. Well it's up there for anyone to read then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Epic, epic sleet storm on the 00z GGEM for parts of northern IN/OH...some areas get near 2" qpf as sleet, and if you go with a 3:1 ratio for that... I hate to b ring up the nightmare, but how much sleet did you have on GHD 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I hate to b ring up the nightmare, but how much sleet did you have on GHD 1? 4" give or take. It was windy and blowing/drifting around. Never seen anything like it...it was like walking in quicksand initially before it became a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 EURO at 72 hour, very similar to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 00z Euro 997 mb near Springfield, IL at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Heck of a 850 mb thermal gradient on the 00z ECMWF at 96 hours...near 10C at South Bend and 0C just a bit northwest of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Heck of a 850 mb thermal gradient on the 00z ECMWF at 96 hours...near 10C at South Bend and 0C just a bit northwest of Chicago. Definitely an improvement compared to the 00z run last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Is the euro further SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Heck of a 850 mb thermal gradient on the 00z ECMWF at 96 hours...near 10C at South Bend and 0C just a bit northwest of Chicago. That's a bone chilling rain up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Is the euro further SE? ir appears so. But still a ways NW of the GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Weird difference in the 850 mb temps between that and this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 EURO apparently shows quite a bit of ice across Southern MI and Northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 EURO apparently shows quite a bit of ice across Southern MI and Northern IL. Precip starts a lot sooner on this run vs. last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Weird difference in the 850 mb temps between that and this: USA_TMP_850mb_096.gif It's like the COD maps smoothed everything out and simplified it. (lower resolution) Here's the 120 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Euro says get your generators ready northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 EURO apparently shows quite a bit of ice across Southern MI and Northern IL. I'd say some for here, Northern IL gets crushed though. The key is this run is a bit south of the 12z run so we are working in the right direction. One thing the Euro is doing that I don't quite agree with is warming us quickly while we are moistening, with the colder drier air advecting in from the east and northeast, we won't warm as quickly as the Euro shows, not to mention the Euro doesn't even get us too warm at 850 this run, max temp is only 4c for the city and most of the suburbs max at 2c. We won't rise to 40 like the Euro is showing overnight Monday night with that temp profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Its all yours bud I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Anyone willing to divulge the Euro Snow/Ice Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Nam still sucks bad. Lets pray the gfs gets better or holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 So we'e basically in 2 camps now with this thing. Has the EE rule expired? Apparently not. The 06z made a significant move toward the Euro/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I remember those days. Heard the CMC is pretty big with quite a bit of snow. Yeah I would say so. post-76-0-50487800-1451017690.jpg Now Hillsdalewx will be going all PatrickSumner on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I hate to b ring up the nightmare, but how much sleet did you have on GHD 1? Had ~6" here. In over 50 years I've never seen that much sleet fall and drift like it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The 12z NAM is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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