Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 EURO ensembles - all 50. CMC ensemble members seem to be closer together with one another; SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Don't make me whip out the FIM... I'm not even sure where you look at the FIM. If you go to Weatherbell.com, the FIM is still stuck on December 2nd run of the FIM, so I'm not sure what's happening there. All I'm saying is that the global models and ensembles (other than the Japanese) are more reliable than some sort of hybrid (Downscaled GFS with NAM Extensions... DGNX or perhaps DGEX/Eta). Actually it would be nice to have better availability of the UKMET information. The UKMET cracked down on data availability at some point about a year ago. The UKMET is a decently accurate model. I wonder if it is even better than 25km resolution these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I'm not even sure where you look at the FIM. If you go to Weatherbell.com, the FIM is still stuck on December 2nd run of the FIM, so I'm not sure what's happening there. All I'm saying is that the global models and ensembles (other than the Japanese) are more reliable than some sort of hybrid (Downscaled GFS with NAM Extensions... DGNX or perhaps DGEX/Eta). Actually it would be nice to have better availability of the UKMET information. The UKMET cracked down on data availability at some point about a year ago. The UKMET is a decently accurate model. I wonder if it is even better than 25km resolution these days. The UKMET was actually running laps around the other models last season (especially for GHD 2015). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Can see the effect of the warmer lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Still pretty mild, not quite as mild during the November snowstorm where there was a couple pockets of 50-52° against the MI shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Still pretty mild, not quite as mild during the November snowstorm where there was a couple pockets of 50-52° against the MI shoreline. Tradeoff is that onshore flow should be stronger this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Definitely^ 0z GFS has the low further south in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Definitely^ 0z GFS has the low further south in TX. It also sped things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Farther south yet... Colder around NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Farther south yet... Colder around NE IL. And a bit weaker. But still a nice hit (of snow & wind) for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 And a bit weaker. But still a nice hit (of snow & wind) for many. Not bad for southern MI, central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Think Home Depot will have some ark building supplies on a Post-Christmas sale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 This feels like the old days when the 84 hr NAM was looking to go north and then the GFS doesn't follow suit...you hold out hope for the GFS solution to verify and then it creeps north on subsequent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 This feels like the old days when the 84 hr NAM was looking to go north and then the GFS doesn't follow suit...you hold out hope for the GFS solution to verify and then it creeps north on subsequent runs. Good thing that hasn't happened since 2007-2008 (with exception to GHD 2011). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Good thing that hasn't happened since 2007-2008 (with exception to GHD 2011). This storm has a little GHD in it in terms of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 00z GGEM seems reasonably similar to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 This feels like the old days when the 84 hr NAM was looking to go north and then the GFS doesn't follow suit...you hold out hope for the GFS solution to verify and then it creeps north on subsequent runs. I remember those days.Heard the CMC is pretty big with quite a bit of snow. Yeah I would say so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 I remember those days. Heard the CMC is pretty big with quite a bit of snow. Yeah I would say so. post-76-0-50487800-1451017690.jpg It'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 0Z GFS and CMC would be a disaster, ice then snow with wind would be a recipe for disaster here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 UKMET 992 mb over Quincy, IL at 96 hours...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 UKMET 992 mb over Quincy, IL at 96 hours...yikes. So we'e basically in 2 camps now with this thing. Has the EE rule expired? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 So we'e basically in 2 camps now with this thing. Has the EE rule expired? I'm thinking the Euro will shift SE again tonight, but if not, it would be like most decent systems in the last couple years, continued model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 You know the models are having a difficult time when one model has a particular location getting rain or freezing rain, and another model has a whiff to the southeast with snow. The UK being fairly far northwest is sort of interesting. The Euro has been one of the further northwest solutions at times, and the NAM also looks to be leaning in that direction. Interesting battle of the models shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Epic, epic sleet storm on the 00z GGEM for parts of northern IN/OH...some areas get near 2" qpf as sleet, and if you go with a 3:1 ratio for that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Epic, epic sleet storm on the 00z GGEM for parts of northern IN/OH...some areas get near 2" qpf as sleet, and if you go with a 3:1 ratio for that... That would be pretty cool to experience, but would probably end up being a bit jealous of the pure snow areas once their pics start getting posted lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Widespread area of 1"-3" QPF on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That would be pretty cool to experience, but would probably end up being a bit jealous of the pure snow areas once their pics start getting posted lol. With brisk 925 mb winds... Hell of a run, but way too many model differences at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 UKMET. Marine influence in a very limited area on the CMC. Got a feeling the Euro split the difference between its 12s run and this CMC run with a little more snow to the west in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 With brisk 925 mb winds... Untitled.png Hell of a run, but way too many model differences at this point. While still solid winds, those don't mix to the surface as well as they did on the previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Epic, epic sleet storm on the 00z GGEM for parts of northern IN/OH...some areas get near 2" qpf as sleet, and if you go with a 3:1 ratio for that... I'm very skeptical at this point...there's a good shot of cold over Canada and the low level cold will try to seep south...so a good shot of wintry precip seems like a good bet somewhere...I'm just skeptical being so close to the southern edge right now. But with that said I'd really love if something like the GGEM panned out. I've never seen more than about an inch of sleet at once and the idea seems kind of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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