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Chicago Storm

December 25-29th Storm Disco

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This thread will be for the non-severe wx related aspects...Rain/flooding potential and snow potential for areas of MN/WI/MI.

 

Looks like a lead wave ejects out on the 25/26th, before the main system head east.

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Some low level cold air on the GFS suggesting the front end of the precipitation shield is a mix.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_25.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_26.png

 

Snow pretty far west. Front end snow in WI likely overdone, imo.

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_31.png

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There is a lot of model and cycle consensus for heavy rainfall over a large portion of the eastern CONUS. American, Canadian, and Euro ensembles all look pretty much the same.

 

TuXbnPx.png

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The GOM continues to remain fairly untouched, and thus very deep moisture is readily available for any system that can tap into it.  This will continue to offer heavy precip potential with any system of consequence going forward.  Don't really see the GOM getting scoured out for the foreseeable future.  So maybe that will benefit some of us snow lovers as we head into January...

 

With that being said, it looks like this system will be yet another one that will be all loaded up with deep moisture, and ready to dump tons of rain in the favored regions relative to the storm track.  Heavy snow is looking pretty likely over the Plains with this, and hopefully that extends northeast through the MSP/UP of MI region for our northwestern/northern sub peeps.  

 

Look at the current dewpoint readings down south.  Mid 70s all over the northern Gulf.  That's very tropical indeed.  

x6jyv9.jpg

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Lake MI is up 2" since Nov 18th, 3" higher than this time last year, and 11" above its long term average.

 

 

the rise has been insane, they had to close one of the dog beaches by my apartment because it literally vanished under rising water

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the rise has been insane, they had to close one of the dog beaches by my apartment because it literally vanished under rising water

 

Same issues with Superior.  The city of Marquette has to close Lakeshore drive every time there's a northeast blow.  And with no ice along the shore this year, I'm thinking the right storm could do  a lot of damage.... there as well.

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What a broad area of 2"+ over the next 10 days on the GEFS map above.  I saw that ILN was already briefly mentioning flooding potential in their afternoon AFD yesterday.  There looks to be potential for heavy (flooding?) rainfall for just about anyone between the Mississippi & the Apps...rather prolonged event, as well.

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the rise has been insane, they had to close one of the dog beaches by my apartment because it literally vanished under rising water

Quite amazing since just a few years ago it seems there was talk about the lake levels being significantly low.

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Surface high starts out in a pretty good position but then moves east.

 

The most significant difference is that it does a better job of picking up and damning the low-level cold air ahead of the storm.  

 

Even aloft, there's better northern/southern stream interaction, which helps to push the baroclinic zone further SE. 

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Wow, Now that is impressive.

 

Significant front end ice threat on this run for northern IL.  6 days out though and the high pressure is weaker on other models. 

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Sig ice is essentially impossible imby, especially with warm wet surfaces

 

 

Yeah, it actually shows the lakeshore areas a tad above freezing.  Would be a different story inland.

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Good thing is, this is occurring over a multi day period, and should limit the flood potential, however 3-6" of rain in December is incredible to say the least, and should not be down played.

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Good thing is, this is occurring over a multi day period, and should limit the flood potential, however 3-6" of rain in December is incredible to say the least, and should not be down played.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see LSX/ILX issue a Flood Watch closer to the event

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00z GFS might baby step toward something more wintry for more folks.

 

It does.

 

Cold air able to hang on longer and allow for a good front end thumping from Iowa to Michigan

 

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00z GFS might baby step toward something more wintry for more folks.

 

And it did. 

 

Some fairly big baby steps in fact for WI and Central MI folks (nice front-end thumping)/

 

And a course a prolonged threat for sleet/freezing rain in Southern Michigan and Northern Illinois. 

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It does.

 

Cold air able to hang on longer and allow for a good front end thumping from Iowa to Michigan

 

attachicon.gifgfs snow.png

 

850mb to 700mb temps are a little too warm for that to be all snow.

 

But the trend is definitely in the right direction. 

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An impressive amount of low-level cold air is shown on the GFS.

 

For DTW, it has surface temps falling into the mid-upper 20s on Monday an dewpoints falling into the lower 20s...

 

2meter.png

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