packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Let's check back in a few days and see which verifies. You would think some sort of blend but if the newly updated GEFS completely folds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Let's check back in a few days and see which verifies. You would think some sort of blend but if the newly updated GEFS completely folds... I would be HIGHLY surprised if we see something like the GEFS shows. Euro ensembles have been quite consistent for several days and trended better while the GEFS has been more volatile. Also CMC ensembles are close to euro solution with cold 850 anomalies over the central and eastern US. GEFS will probably start trending towards the Euro ensembles the next few days, we've seen how much the OP GFS "upgrade" actually helped lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I would be HIGHLY surprised if we see something like the GEFS shows. Euro ensembles have been quite consistent for several days and trended better while the GEFS has been more volatile. Also CMC ensembles are close to euro solution with cold 850 anomalies over the central and eastern US. GEFS will probably start trending towards the Euro ensembles the next few days, we've seen how much the OP GFS "upgrade" actually helped lol. Better watch out...that sort of optimism and "alternate positive thinking" won't be tolerated here. Totally kidding. But all joking aside, the EURO is still the king...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Better watch out...that sort of optimism and "alternate positive thinking" won't be tolerated here. Totally kidding. But all joking aside, the EURO is still the king...right? Haha until proven otherwise, yes Betting against the Euro is never a wise move, it is called the king for a reason and several on here have mentioned how well it performs in El Niño winters. I'm not sure how true that is or if there is data to back that up, however when comparing runs over the past 10 days with how they verified the Euro significantly outperformed the GFS, especially the 6-10 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Haha until proven otherwise, yes Betting against the Euro is never a wise move, it is called the king for a reason and several on here have mentioned how well it performs in El Niño winters. I'm not sure how true that is or if there is data to back that up, however when comparing runs over the past 10 days with how they verified the Euro significantly outperformed the GFS, especially the 6-10 day range. I thought the Euro has been known to hold energy back in the SW. It performs better in the El Nino years still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Biggest thing we see as it relates to SE winter storms is that the GFS tends to poorly handle southern stream waves, so the problem just comes to light more during El Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I thought the Euro has been known to hold energy back in the SW. It performs better in the El Nino years still?I have no idea if it does I'm El Niño years or not, I've read it on here by a few knowledgeable posters but I'm not sure what it's based off of. Maybe someone who knows can offer some insight? Regardless it has higher verification scores than the GFS and during patterns of volatility, where the GFS has sometimes dropped under .75 in its score at the 5 day range, the Euro is much more accurate. Since we are entering a pattern of volatility and pattern change is taking place I wouldn't put much stock in the GFS for now. Here is a chart from wxbell showing how the GFS has struggled at times of volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I have no idea if it does I'm El Niño years or not, I've read it on here by a few knowledgeable posters but I'm not sure what it's based off of. Maybe someone who knows can offer some insight? Regardless it has higher verification scores than the GFS and during patterns of volatility, where the GFS has sometimes dropped under .75 in its score at the 5 day range, the Euro is much more accurate. Since we are entering a pattern of volatility and pattern change is taking place I wouldn't put much stock in the GFS for now. Here is a chart from wxbell showing how the GFS has struggled at times of volatility. image.png A big reason the GFS seems to do better during La Niña years is likely because the lack of southern stream activity in La Niñas plays into the GFS bias of squashing southern stream waves with an overdominant northern stream which is another hallmark of a La Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 A big reason the GFS seems to do better during La Niña years is likely because the lack of southern stream activity in La Niñas plays into the GFS bias of squashing southern stream waves with an overdominant northern stream which is another hallmark of a La Niñ This may be more properly in the banter section, but since we are having a bit of a "disco" (I learned to use that term recently!) about the merits of the relative performance of models, I will risk the moderator's wrath. My layman's impression of Numerical Weather Prediction is that models are just giant systems of differential equations which are numerically solved into the future using atmospheric data from the present. So when there are known biases in the solutions, I my naive wonder is why they can't just track down the offending parameter or term in the differential equation and fix it so that the bias disappears. I presume that it is a lot more difficult than I make it seem, but I would love to understand why. In a related question, is there an active dialog between the mathematicians/physicists/mets/computer scientists who make the models and the rank and file of the meteorologists that use them? Do the forecasters send feedback at the computer geeks when things go wrong? I have a humorous image in my head the "modelmakers" being a robed priesthood inhabiting the dark catacombs of a secrete subterranean catacombs where incense is burned and oracles dance in front of a giant monolith with numberless blinking lights where weather data is feed in and MOS are spat out, with no one knowing exactly how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 FWIW the 00z GEFS took a step towards the Euro ensembles, much cooler D11-15 while Euro ensembles hold serve. Looks better and better for the cold to move in January 10-11 as the indices tank the next week or so. Good trends indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Wow at latest Euro ensembles. Looks like a classic Miller A track from the MSLP anomaly maps for tonight, no need to get into details but shows a lot of potential. With the blocking forecast in Canada that certainly would help keep this suppressed. Also we have January 4-7th BN at 850 level, the 8-9th slightly AN and then 10th through end of run BN. Much colder trend as a few days ago the whole first week of January looked AN, now only a few days and slightly AN at that. Starting January 1st through the end of the run I only see 3 days of slightly AN anomalies at 850. Certainly a colder trend and a good sign Here is a 500mb map (hour 264) for our storm, looks like January 10-15th timeframe will indeed be fun! Also MSLP anomaly showing classic Miller A track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I also went through the Ensemble mean and counted 22 members showing some snow for at least part of NC, the mean now has almost the whole state at 1.5" (2" for the mountains) and it looks like they're picking up on our January 10-15th storm much better. A few members are also showing accumulating snow the 5-7th range, maybe from the vort dropping down? What I'd like to see now is even more members jump on board, 35-40, with a decent snow event as we get inside the 240 hour range. To have 22 members showing accumulating snow for some or all of NC this far out is pretty unusual. Still a long ways to go and it's a big jump for one run so take this fwiw. Keep an eye on the trends, we want to see more members jump on board and to see the models hold onto the blocking to prevent a cutter. If we don't have enough blocking to the north it's game over for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Hail to the king, baby! What a gorgeous setup +PNA/-AO/-NAO, nice trough placement...SOMEONE'S cashing in if we get that look. Maybe a lot of someones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Hail to the king, baby! What a gorgeous setup +PNA/-AO/-NAO, nice trough placement...SOMEONE'S cashing in if we get that look. Maybe a lot of someones. This has my eye in the near term, nice shift south on tonight's Euro and 06z GFS is shifting west and south some towards the Euro. These vorts can spin a quick LP up near or off the coast if they go neutral or negative tilt. It's close but not quite there on the Euro, some ensemble members go crazy with this vort though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I also went through the Ensemble mean and counted 22 members showing some snow for at least part of NC, the mean now has almost the whole state at 1.5" (2" for the mountains) and it looks like they're picking up on our January 10-15th storm much better. A few members are also showing accumulating snow the 5-7th range, maybe from the vort dropping down? What I'd like to see now is even more members jump on board, 35-40, with a decent snow event as we get inside the 240 hour range. To have 22 members showing accumulating snow for some or all of NC this far out is pretty unusual. Still a long ways to go and it's a big jump for one run so take this fwiw. Keep an eye on the trends, we want to see more members jump on board and to see the models hold onto the blocking to prevent a cutter. If we don't have enough blocking to the north it's game over for us. I have to agree that when I pulled up KAVL's Euro metgrams this morning that I was surprised to see that type of agreement. That being said, I can remember numerous times last year at this time frame where the agreement was even better for snowfall, but it just didnt come to fruition. This is a great indicator to watch though like you said snowlover and I weight the EPS heavily when putting together my forecast. Good signal though at this point in time. Thanks for taking the time to put that post together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Whaaaaat? RAH long range discussion: LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE CONUSNEXT WEEK...A PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A DISORGANIZED AMALGAMATIONOF WAVES UNDERGOING A VARIETY OF CONSTRUCTIVE/DESTRUCTIVEINTERACTIONS. AS SUCH...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND THE FORECAST WILL BE STEERED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 6z GFS also has a storm signal around the 1/11 range. Maybe, finally a legitimate threat to keep an eye on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Best thing about the Euro ENS is that the flip happens right around hour 240 instead of way out in lala land. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I have to agree that when I pulled up KAVL's Euro metgrams this morning that I was surprised to see that type of agreement. That being said, I can remember numerous times last year at this time frame where the agreement was even better for snowfall, but it just didnt come to fruition. This is a great indicator to watch though like you said snowlover and I weight the EPS heavily when putting together my forecast. Good signal though at this point in time. Thanks for taking the time to put that post together.Normally I would be skeptical but we are in an unusually strong Nino this go round which favors us much more this year. If the Euro ENS is correct the ducks will truly be on the pond. We haven't seen this kind of setup since 09/10 and you guys in the mountains cleaned up those years. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Don't sleep on next Tues, euro op has slp off coast and ENS has some support. Op actually shows a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Euro op also shows a TS/cane in Caribbean in day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Going forward, I believe we will have a relaxation as Crain has been suggesting in the 3rd week of January but it will likely be fairly brief and not a torch at all, more a return to normal after the cold period coming up. I still think February will be BN with an active SJ (probably into March as well) and we will have several things to at least track. Whether that means big snowstorms is impossible to say as we know that timing is so critical down here and gets more so as you go further and further South. BTW, VERY nice to see Burger posting more as he does a fabulous job on play by play of interesting winter systems. For the folks in the mountains (especially NC) and Southern Virginia, perhaps Northern NC as well, I think they will end up doing very well in snowfall for this mid-late winter based on Nino climo and the apparent developing pattern.Also to the earlier question about the EURO, it does indeed tend to hold back energy in the SW in it's early depictions (5-10 day periods) but tends to catch on as it gets closer to the actual time and becomes pretty accurate within 3-4 days. The GFS as mentioned does a horrible job figuring out the energy of systems during El Nino's as mentioned earlier and I would mostly discard it until very late in any systems progression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Well if last nights runs didn't get you excited better check your pulse. Euro and EPS looking better, now also seeing hints of potential on all operationals. Even 6z GFS with a perfect tract for a low at 264, a little warm verbatim but just starting to hint at what is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Last night's euro run also shows why you cannot trust just one run of a model run. Big changes around hour 120 and 144. That's impressive as that's not in LA LA land. Shows you how crazy this pattern change really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Don't sleep on next Tues, euro op has slp off coast and ENS has some support. Op actually shows a dusting. yea just getting inside 120hrs now, we have cashed in before with these looks as the models caught on a few days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Normally I would be skeptical but we are in an unusually strong Nino this go round which favors us much more this year. If the Euro ENS is correct the ducks will truly be on the pond. We haven't seen this kind of setup since 09/10 and you guys in the mountains cleaned up those years. Sent from my LG-H811 I have my fingers crossed man. Looking at the Euro ENS one would think that either the GFS or Euro will show a SE snowstorm over the next few runs. I really like where we sit up here in the mountains and like you mentioned, we cash in with these type Nino's. People up here are getting used to the warmth up here and this pattern change is going to shock the system. I have been licking my chops looking at the teleconnections, just waiting for an OP run to show a good snow hit for WNC before delving deep into the data with bufkit ect. I like what I see though. Hope things are good for you across the pond man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Normally I would be skeptical but we are in an unusually strong Nino this go round which favors us much more this year. If the Euro ENS is correct the ducks will truly be on the pond. We haven't seen this kind of setup since 09/10 and you guys in the mountains cleaned up those years. Sent from my LG-H811 There's our winter catchphrase from Burger! :loon: :loon: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 There's our winter catchphrase from Burger! :loon: :loon: Well someone had to do it I suppose. Might as well be me. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 yea just getting inside 120hrs now, we have cashed in before with these looks as the models caught on a few days out Now all we need is consistency and for other models to begin catching on, then someone can start the thread if all that happens. It's amazing how much of a difference there was in one run at only 132 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Now all we need is consistency and for other models to begin catching on, then someone can start the thread if all that happens. It's amazing how much of a difference there was in one run at only 132 hours out. Look at the day 5 changes from yesterdays 12z run to this mornings 0z run. Still not a great look but interesting...I haven't looked at the Op GFS yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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