franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 If anything the 12z EPS looks a little colder/suppressed than 0z run for DT event.looks that way just looking at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 looks that way just looking at 500mbAnd the trough begins setting up at hour 216, with a colder trend past that also. GEFS has been trending towards the Euro ensembles also. This is for real people now we just need a few good Miller A storms between January 10-20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 looks that way just looking at 500mb Yep, core of cold was centered up in Ohio/KY and now it's classic southern plains to SE....#nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Another good eps run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Another good eps run. That Gulf low looks nice for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 If anything the 12z EPS looks a little colder/suppressed than 0z run for DT event.comparing to 0z it leaves more energy in the sw on this run. Probably an error and greater chance of a warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Nope not here to stir the pot. I see lots of great patterns on 300 hour panels. That is stating a fact. Show me the great indicies in the 5-10 day frame and I'll get a little excited. As for my normal comment. Here where I live we aren't going that far below normal. A normal high is around 50 I'll see some mid 40's. Big whoop, followed by some upper 50s and 60's back above normal. Who knows maybe we do get great teleconnextijns and some winter weather to go with it. Color me skeptical until it gets inside a reasonable range. You guys can call this stirring the pot. I call it looking at a map and giving an opinion. It happens every year. Unless you are full blown weenie you're stirring the pot or not here in good faith. Maybe just maybe there is something to what I'm saying. Take off the rose colored glasses and look a bit closer. We are still a long way away from where we need to be. December was a torch, Jan looks to start cool but pretty close to seasonal then back up for a few days. After that we are too far out to get excited. I remember the days where posting 300 hour maps to further a point was laughed at. Again, all I'm saying is let's see this -NAO/-AO/+PNA get a bit closer before getting excited. This has huge bust potential. Sure it could absolute happen but the rug could also get pulled pretty quick. I read someone saying that the blocking had staying power. We can't know that right now and it's that kind of ridiculous hyperbole that isn't welcome not my opinion that I'd like to see this get Ina. Reasonable range before buying in. Happy new year, you haters keep hating. There. Under 300 hours. Looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 comparing to 0z it leaves more energy in the sw on this run. Probably an error and greater chance of a warmer solution. Probably...interesting is that at day 10 the latest 12z EPS is stronger with the ridge over over Greenland/NW Canada and into HB somewhat. For this to be a winter event in NC south outside of the mountains I would want to see the blocking in HB get stronger. Agree with Grit probably a NW event, but it will hopefully get the east on the scoreboard. The AO is trending towards neutral on the EPS so that may in turn lead to a more NW solution down the road unless we can really get ridging stronger in to HB (-wNAO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looking more at the DT event with such a strong PNA/EPO combo which has favored MA to NE past couple of winters seems reasonable for that to continue. For SE to get better odds of snow go back to what Jon and I posted which showed the snowy strong nino years and setups for snowy events it shows a similar theme of strong blocking south of Greenland into HB. Latest Feb Cansips shows this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Probably...interesting is that at day 10 the latest 12z EPS is stronger with the ridge over over Greenland/NW Canada and into HB somewhat. For this to be a winter event in NC south outside of the mountains I would want to see the blocking in HB get stronger. Agree with Grit probably a NW event, but it will hopefully get the east on the scoreboard. The AO is trending towards neutral on the EPS so that may in turn lead to a more NW solution down the road unless we can really get ridging stronger in to HB (-wNAO).honestly it's probably a Rainer for us over here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 From what I'm seeing it looks like you guys have the best pattern for cold snow setting up in quite a few years. Might not happen as quickly as everyone wants but seeing the EPS push the 0c 850 line down to basically the FL panhandle 2 runs in a row is a big deal. The signal is really strong for the EPS when it shows such a departure from climo norms at long leads. You don't see that very often. Think about the torch. It looked really strong at long leads but ended up even warmer than we could have ever drawn up. Now we're seeing anomalies the other direction. That epo ridge is going to build and dump some impressive air masses and the pattern is prime to push them way further south than normal. Even if nothing good happens in the next 2 weeks, things are looking pretty good beyond that as well. Probably not a one hit wonder pattern. I know that's been in the back of all of our minds. Still could be the case but at least it's looking less likely as we move forward in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Amazing totals too bad it was not 40 degrees colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 From what I'm seeing it looks like you guys have the best pattern for cold snow setting up in quite a few years. Might not happen as quickly as everyone wants but seeing the EPS push the 0c 850 line down to basically the FL panhandle 2 runs in a row is a big deal. The signal is really strong for the EPS when it shows such a departure from climo norms at long leads. You don't see that very often. Think about the torch. It looked really strong at long leads but ended up even warmer than we could have ever drawn up. Now we're seeing anomalies the other direction. That epo ridge is going to build and dump some impressive air masses and the pattern is prime to push them way further south than normal. Even if nothing good happens in the next 2 weeks, things are looking pretty good beyond that as well. Probably not a one hit wonder pattern. I know that's been in the back of all of our minds. Still could be the case but at least it's looking less likely as we move forward in time. Thanks Bob....agreed, strong nino's, especially blocky/active ones are very good down here, usually. Be a shame to not take advantage of that as they are rare setups but we haven't been on the greatest streak as of late to say the least. It seems like past few winters and this winter (panhandle) have been hitting same people over and over once things start...so this first event is somewhat important, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Thanks Bob....agreed, strong nino's, especially blocky/active ones are very good. Be a shame to not take advantage of that as they are rare setups but we haven't been on the greatest streak as of late to say the least. It seems like past few winters and this winter (panhandle) have been hitting same people over and over once things start...so this first event is somewhat important, IMO. The luck ingredient that both our areas require is the trickiest variable. No matter how good it looks...a little bit of luck goes a long ways. I'm interested in the weeklies because the eps has been pretty stable last few days or so. Curious to how the fantasy pattern rolls forward deeper into fantasy time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knee deep to a grasshopper Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Amazing totals too bad it was not 40 degrees colder.. Look at the massive amounts in Waycross!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 From what I'm seeing it looks like you guys have the best pattern for cold snow setting up in quite a few years. Might not happen as quickly as everyone wants but seeing the EPS push the 0c 850 line down to basically the FL panhandle 2 runs in a row is a big deal. The signal is really strong for the EPS when it shows such a departure from climo norms at long leads. You don't see that very often. Think about the torch. It looked really strong at long leads but ended up even warmer than we could have ever drawn up. Now we're seeing anomalies the other direction. That epo ridge is going to build and dump some impressive air masses and the pattern is prime to push them way further south than normal. Even if nothing good happens in the next 2 weeks, things are looking pretty good beyond that as well. Probably not a one hit wonder pattern. I know that's been in the back of all of our minds. Still could be the case but at least it's looking less likely as we move forward in time. I agree. It's hard to see this pattern and not get excited if you're south of NY. Heck 18z is looking juice near 240 on GFS. Each run makes me less and less skeptical of something big happening in the 10th - 20th time frame of Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The luck ingredient that both our areas require is the trickiest variable. No matter how good it looks...a little bit of luck goes a long ways. I'm interested in the weeklies because the eps has been pretty stable last few days or so. Curious to how the fantasy pattern rolls forward deeper into fantasy time. Forgot about the weeklies, feels like Sat night, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Looking more at the DT event with such a strong PNA/EPO combo which has favored MA to NE past couple of winters seems reasonable for that to continue. For SE to get better odds of snow go back to what Jon and I posted which showed the snowy strong nino years and setups for snowy events it shows a similar theme of strong blocking south of Greenland into HB. Latest Feb Cansips shows this... Yep. No 1958 in the composite or did you leave it out for a reason? It was slightly AN (7.9" at RDU), also had a -AO/-NAO flip for J-F after a +AO/+NAO December. What's also interesting is the ++kara sea ridge in this composite, should look familiar to current and modeled 500mb patterns. Here's the Jan composite of all AN snowy Strong Ninos (n=8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Look at the massive amounts in Waycross!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yep. No 1958 in the composite or did you leave it out for a reason? It was slightly AN (7.9" at RDU), also had a -AO/-NAO flip for J-F after a +AO/+NAO December. What's also interesting is the ++kara sea ridge in this composite, should look familiar to current and modeled 500mb patterns. Here's the Jan composite of all AN snowy Strong Ninos (n=8) I stole the plot from one of your posts yesterday :-)I think we go to that pattern end of Jan into bulk of Feb. I think the PNA/EPO pattern holds until the 20th, we relax (seasonal) and then pattern you plotted above sticks for a few weeks...well that's my WAG but climo supports as you have shown and cansips agrees. It would be very disappointing and non-climo to not see atleast measurable snow sometime in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I stole the plot from one of your posts yesterday :-) I think we go to that pattern end of Jan into bulk of Feb. I think the PNA/EPO pattern holds until the 20th, we relax (seasonal) and then pattern you plotted above sticks for a few weeks...well that's my WAG but climo supports as you have shown and cansips agrees. Whoops! Caught my own mistake! I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I agree. It's hard to see this pattern and not get excited if you're south of NY. Heck 18z is looking juice near 240 on GFS. Each run makes me less and less skeptical of something big happening in the 10th - 20th time frame of Jan. 18z GFS has the Jan 14-15 storm and then another low rolls through with another storm. Good pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Euro weeklies so far: Jan 10-11: Deep trough over eastern US through Jan 14. ENS Mean has a Gulf low on 00z 1/11. Miller A on control and ensemble mean, pretty big signal for a storm in the Jan 10-15 five day period. Jan 13: -8C to -10C 850mb anomalies over SE Jan 18-21: Entire US is a trough. -AO, -PNA Jan 23: Above average 850's move in to the SE. Week 4 isn't going to be too great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Hopefully ATL can cash in with this storm, if it does indeed happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 18z GFS has the Jan 14-15 storm and then another low rolls through with another storm. Good pattern setting up. Yep that pattern is a winner. If it didn't truncate after 240 there would be a storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Euro weeklies so far: Jan 10-11: Deep trough over eastern US through Jan 14. ENS Mean has a Gulf low on 00z 1/11. Miller A on control and ensemble mean, pretty big signal for a storm in the Jan 10-15 five day period. Jan 13: -8C to -10C 850mb anomalies over SE Jan 18-21: Entire US is a trough. -AO, -PNA Jan 23: Above average 850's move in to the SE. Week 4 isn't going to be too great. Weeklies say return to Dec weather, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Euro weeklies so far: Jan 10-11: Deep trough over eastern US through Jan 14. ENS Mean has a Gulf low on 00z 1/11. Miller A on control and ensemble mean, pretty big signal for a storm in the Jan 10-15 five day period. Jan 13: -8C to -10C 850mb anomalies over SE Jan 18-21: Entire US is a trough. -AO, -PNA Jan 23: Above average 850's move in to the SE. Week 4 isn't going to be too great. Week 2, did you mean -AO, +PNA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Yep that pattern is a winner. If it didn't truncate after 240 there would be a storm for us. I asked this in the banter thread the other day, but nobody answered. I thought that there was no longer a truncation on the GFS after an upgrade last winter and all of the data and graphics are full resolution through the end of the run. Am I remembering that wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Week 2, did you mean -AO, +PNA? No. Weeklies have a ok pattern Dec 12-20 then back to Dec pattern from Dec 20th on -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I asked this in the banter thread the other day, but nobody answered. I thought that there was no longer a truncation on the GFS after an upgrade last winter and all of the data and graphics are full resolution through the end of the run. Am I remembering that wrong? I think you're correct.....it's still full resolution but it's obvious it loses something after 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.