Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Looks like it matches to me. Each shade is in increments of 0.2, so yes, when you count the layers/shades, the darkest area is "only" -1.0C You are correct, CR. Thanks! So I counted six contours on the map. 6 contours on the legend equals 1.5. I think what has happened is that he has labeled the shaded areas and not the boundaries. Not that it really makes much difference. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 12z GEFS is suppressed vs the 12z OP Sent from my iPhone Right where we want it right now!Don't worry about temps, models are underestimating the strength of the wedge I'm not gonna be all in until I see the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Thanks! So I counted six contours on the map. 6 contours on the legend equals 1.5. I think what has happened is that he has labeled the shaded areas and not the boundaries. Not that it really makes much difference. Haha!just roll with this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Thanks! So I counted six contours on the map. 6 contours on the legend equals 1.5. I think what has happened is that he has labeled the shaded areas and not the boundaries. Not that it really makes much difference. Haha! Ah, I see! You are correct again good sir. Gonna torch anyway so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Thank you! Doesn't look as crazy as I thought it was gonna look, but still looks nice.. It also seems there will be multiple storm threats throughout the 45-day period. Yeah it's much higher in areas further north in the CAD regions like RDU, GSO, etc. The main idea though isn't the actual amounts as the potential for multiple storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Ah, I see! You are correct again good sir. Gonna torch anyway so... Haha I hope not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 just roll with this! Looks really great for Franklin, NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 The numbers on his map don't look like they match up with the legend. The best I can tell on his map, the darkest area looks to be -1.0 C. But that particular color looks more associated with the -2.0 on the legend. I can run a level 2 diagnostic on my multiphasic spectral micrometer, but that will take a while. Can someone else validate for me? Looks like it matches to me. Each shade is in increments of 0.2, so yes, when you count the layers/shades, the darkest area is "only" -1.0C You are correct, CR. If we average -2F to -3F over next 3 months that will be really good, assuming you believe in his numbers. A little surprising how warm he has southern cali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Here you go! First one is the high res Euro ensembles and second is the extended range Euro ensembles. Just looking at RDU....para-weeklies say we have a chances for now the next 45 days. Based on the 5h maps thats what it shows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Lol the 12z GGEM takes our storm into the Midwest ...... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Yeah it's much higher in areas further north in the CAD regions like RDU, GSO, etc. The main idea though isn't the actual amounts as the potential for multiple storm threats. True.. And as far as I know, modeled snow totals are usually very inaccurate until they're within 36-72 hours, so we shouldn't get caught up in any now haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Before the ice/snow of 73, Dec 31st 1972 & Jan 1st 1973 was 70F in my back yard. By Jan. 8th, there was snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Lol the 12z GGEM takes our storm into the Midwest ...... Sent from my iPhone Which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Looks really great for Franklin, NC!looks good for Raleigh too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Before the ice/snow of 73, Dec 31st 1972 & Jan 1st 1973 was 70F in my back yard. By Jan. 8th, there was snow. The fact you remember that 43 years later shows how rare it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Lol the 12z GGEM takes our storm into the Midwest ...... Sent from my iPhone And that is what will probably end up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 HM says it best for what we need to force this south, although I don't think he really cares if we get hit but I don't think he wants an Apps/OhV runner. Need Greenland/HB ridging/block further south/east. #westNAOplease Today's 12z GFS shows us how a STJ wave has to be forced if EPO block breaks off more east, forcing 50/50 low&west based -NAO. Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 All these years of being blanked in that department and now we FINALLY again have the possibilty of seeing a -NAO...and now we need it to specifically be a WEST-BASED -NAO lmao. Even finally getting a -NAO still isn't good enough. Now we need an even more specific type of oscillation. :lmao: I love living in the SE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Wow at the Euro out past 200 Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Big PV dropping into the Midwest with energy rolling east. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Euro seems close to a CAD event January 8-9th, signal is there and shows some weak CAD. Another storm moving east past 200 hours like Burger mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 LR Euro looks fantastic. Big PV coming down with energy rolling east. I think it holds on to the energy too long so not sure I buy the timing of the moisture but the overall setup is what we want. Sent from my LG-H811 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 LR Euro looks fantastic. Big PV coming down with energy rolling east. I think it holds on to the energy too long so not sure I buy the timing of the moisture but the overall setup is what we want. Sent from my LG-H811 Yeah it's a little too warm but too far out to look at details, they're not too important at the 240 hour range. Main takeaway I see is a classic Miller A track with cold air in the center of the nation and HP trying to build in. The players are on the field, now we just need the right timing and track, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Yeah it's a little too warm but too far out to look at details, they're not too important at the 240 hour range. Main takeaway I see is a classic Miller A track with cold air in the center of the nation and HP trying to build in. The players are on the field, now we just need the right timing and track, as always.I'm more interested what would happen after. EPS should be fun. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Look at all this energy hour 234.. I'm not good with phasing and how that works, but would the 3 pieces setup here be possible for a triple phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 12z CMC ENS...cold bias but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Living in central NC for over 30 years now, I take anything beyond 2 days out with a grain of salt.. so much can, and will change, by then. But it is fun to look and speculate, I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Look at all this energy hour 234.. I'm not good with phasing and how that works, but would the 3 pieces setup here be possible for a triple phase? Potentially but not sure it qualifies as an official triple phaser though. But the PV phasing with SS, PAC energy over ridge...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Potentially but not sure it qualifies as an official triple phaser though. But the PV phasing with SS, PAC energy over ridge...lol. Okay thanks! It doesn't look like they would meet up but I was wondering if it would classify if the 3 pieces of energy did meet up. Thanks for the help, I'm still learning how to interpret the 500mb vort maps and phasing interactions. One thing is for sure, long range models are advertising some extreme cold for the January 10-15th period. Euro has widespread -30F to -40F anomalies BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 One good trend is the Euro builds more ridging over the Great Lakes compared with its prior run. We need to continue to see this trend, part of what warms us up is a LP that forms over the Great Lakes bringing light snow. This same low is pulling some warm air in front of it keeping the SE a little too warm. Get rid of this low and have a HP build in there instead and you'll have a classic Miller A with a good cold air source. 00z run from last night, stronger LP and less ridging. Good trend from 00z to 12z today. 12z Euro, weaker LP in Great Lakes with strong ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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