packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Just to throw this out, I had 16 inches of snow Jan 27/28 of 1998. One of my favorite snowstorms of all time. It only takes one to make it a memorable winter. So, I agree with you. Even a horrible pattern kept us near normal, so what looks like good signs should stand a chance to produce something. I would take a 98 right now in a heartbeat, we had a few inches atleast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I would take a 98 right now in a heartbeat, we had a few inches atleast. Let's revisit this post in about 3 months. No hype, no spin, no agenda. We can let the weather speak for itself. We have had a 97-98 December. I seriously doubt(based on mounting evidence)that we have anything close to a 97-98 winter the rest of the way. Your post implies we you will get zero snow this year. I find that highly unlikely, but I guess the weather will speak for itself. 2001-02 was a torch winter, but I had one week of cold with a 7" snow. That was nice, but the rest of the winter absolutely sucked. I am of the opinion that we are in a MUCH better place right now than 97-98 or 01-02. Time will tell, but it appears the ducks a lining up now better than they ever were in either of those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Let's revisit this post in about 3 months. No hype, no spin, no agenda. We can let the weather speak for itself. We have had a 97-98 December. I seriously doubt(based on mounting evidence)that we have anything close to a 97-98 winter the rest of the way. Your post implies we you will get zero snow this year. I find that highly unlikely, but I guess the weather will speak for itself. 2001-02 was a torch winter, but I had one week of cold with a 7" snow. That was nice, but the rest of the winter absolutely sucked. I am of the opinion that we are in a MUCH better place right now than 97-98 or 01-02. Time will tell, but it appears the ducks a lining up now better than they ever were in either of those winters. Fair enough...my call for RDU was 5" for this winter which is a couple inches more than 98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Let's revisit this post in about 3 months. No hype, no spin, no agenda. We can let the weather speak for itself. We have had a 97-98 December. I seriously doubt(based on mounting evidence)that we have anything close to a 97-98 winter the rest of the way. Your post implies we you will get zero snow this year. I find that highly unlikely, but I guess the weather will speak for itself. 2001-02 was a torch winter, but I had one week of cold with a 7" snow. That was nice, but the rest of the winter absolutely sucked. I am of the opinion that we are in a MUCH better place right now than 97-98 or 01-02. Time will tell, but it appears the ducks a lining up now better than they ever were in either of those winters. I agree with all your points. the indices look great as modeled. But its the ridge, the pig ridge, that has kept my enthusiasm at bay. If you live MA/SE having that much pork in your diet can cause problems in an otherwise healthy pattern. Its the heart disease of winter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Don S just made a great post about looking at what the indices are doing and not all about model watching. Was a great post this morning about not getting pulled into one direction or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Good write-up by Don in the General discussion board. It looks like the AO will be key to how January ends up. He is currently thinking the second half of January will be much better for eastern cold. The latest indices output continue to show the AO tank negative. The PNA continues to stay positive and even the NAO now looks to be heading negative (at least through averages of runs). http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 So, we're down again? Just out of curiosity, re: the trough in the SW, is there any reason that, given the changes in the atmosphere that are underway (tropical convection, stratospheric PV weakening, blocking developing, etc.), it should remain as a stable element all winter long? Besides the persistence argument (which you could use for the AO or the GOA low or the (take your pick)), is there any reason to expect that feature to remain? I know the models show it repeating, but it seems to be an artifact of the STJ, which we want. Waves are troughs, not ridges, so I would tend to expect troughs to move into the SW consistently, as long as we have an active STJ, which is presumably what we want. The waves would then move across the southern tier, as blocking gets established. It's not like we're stuck with a massive pig ridge off the SE coast for the rest of the winter. If you look at the guidance, you'll see high pressure systems, one after the other dropping into the central US. We should like that also. There's no bitter cold air invasions showing up consistently yet, but it's hard not to like the evolution that "appears" to be underway right now. We also know that model solutions will vary during a pattern change. The northern hemispheric circulation is changing. That's a good thing. Let's see where things shake out. At this point, I don't see any reason to view January in a negative light. And with that, here are your daily index progs: And remember the MJO that looked like it was going to remain in the unfavorable phases and then go into the COD? Hopefully, the models will catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 We don't have that showing on any model, yet, it looks like we are going to need a real deal SSWE for a true -NAO because right now all I see is a return to record warmth in the east with a cold west/NW. The artic has completely reshuffled and yet we are still looking at fairly significant warmth in the east through mid month. The eps keeps pushing back and muting the cold after the 12th. All we know is a +PNA/-EPO/-AO combo, a stout combo at that, can't flip us to sustained cold. Still have hopes for end of Jan into Feb. And yes, EPS agrees with below. Nothing but a transient cold shot or two through atleast the 20th. This isn't 58, looks nothing like 58 (2nd pic below). Complete opposite...should start to raise a red flag. There is a 50/50 shot we don't shake the cold west/NW and warm east all winter....ask 1998 how blocking worked out that winter, LOL. Agreed. Models stubbornly continue to show the cold stuck out west, no matter how negative the AO goes and how much blocking shows up. I don't think any blocking will matter until we get the core of the cold and the lower heights to push to the east. That's not shown to happen for a least a couple weeks unfortunately. Strange. You would think with nice ridging in the PNA region the lower heights would push east. What's holding it back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Don S just made a great post about looking at what the indices are doing and not all about model watching. Was a great post this morning about not getting pulled into one direction or the other. Agree 100% although I haven't seen the post, it's the first thing I look at before heading to individual model runs. If I don't see any changes in the indices, I don't even bother loading actual model runs. Worked great for this pattern change and saves time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I love how people on here live and die by the model runs especially the GFS op.. Yesterday we had an epic winter incoming and today winter is over. In pattern changes you typically have a great deal of model volatility; I've seen it happen every winter and it's common. If you follow the GFS op you'll go crazy because it changes so much. Look at the overall broad picture portrayed by the ensembles. The EPS begin lowering heights at hour 288, we are now within the 300 hour mark. Sure they aren't as deep as modeled yesterday but models change and won't keep showing the same look or intensity each day. The overall signals are there, the pattern change is in motion right now and January 10th and beyond look to turn much colder as the indices tank. What if the models flip back cold again today? Is it winter uncancel? A little patience will be rewarded instead of day to day flipping with model op runs that are having a hard time with figuring out the changes occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Agree 100% although I haven't seen the post, it's the first thing I look at before heading to individual model runs. If I don't see any changes in the indices, I don't even bother loading actual model runs. Worked great for this pattern change and saves time.I do the same exact thing Jon. I go and look at the indices and here recently iv not really looked at the models much at all because I know we are on a volatile setup with the whole pattern shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I love how people on here live and die by the model runs especially the GFS op.. Yesterday we had an epic winter incoming and today winter is over. In pattern changes you typically have a great deal of model volatility; I've seen it happen every winter and it's common. If you follow the GFS op you'll go crazy because it changes so much. Look at the overall broad picture portrayed by the ensembles. The EPS begin lowering heights at hour 288, we are now within the 300 hour mark. Sure they aren't as deep as modeled yesterday but models change and won't keep showing the same look or intensity each day. The overall signals are there, the pattern change is in motion right now and January 10th and beyond look to turn much colder as the indices tank. What if the models flip back cold again today? Is it winter uncancel? A little patience will be rewarded instead of day to day flipping with model op runs that are having a hard time with figuring out the changes occurring.Same thing happens every op run when there is a winter storm threat! Every run of every model, it gets bi- polar ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Same thing happens every op run when there is a winter storm threat! Every run of every model, it gets bi- polar ! But that is fun times waiting for the next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Same thing happens every op run when there is a winter storm threat! Every run of every model, it gets bi- polar ! Yep I've been here quite awhile and it never ceases to amaze me how it happens every year before the pattern change, and with many of the same posters. I understand as some have pointed out the need for caution in that they think the 500mb pattern has staying power and we will torch all of January too. I don't foresee that happening and what we see on the ensembles is them struggling with the pattern change. Every year since I've followed models I have noticed one thing; models typically get extremely volatile as we approach a major pattern change. This includes not only the OP runs of major models but also their ensemble counterparts get quite unstable. The short term indices like AO and NAO are trending favorable during the first week of January, the cold and snow will follow. I would love to see a complete flip of the Euro and GFS ensembles today at 12z, many would go right back to "buy the snow shovel" statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Same thing happens every op run when there is a winter storm threat! Every run of every model, it gets bi- polar ! I'm not sure where this is coming from. I think the discussion is whether or not we can get cold and snow with lower heights stuck out west; which I think is a good discussion. The models including ensembles have been consistently lower heights in the west/above normal temps in the east the next two weeks for days now, all the while the AO is going negative. I don't think there's a snap judgement been made about one op model run. I don't even look at op runs at this point. Yesterday the LOONG range Euro Ens showed the low heights finally making it east but that was in the 15 day range I think. I don't know what they say today...I don't have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I do the same exact thing Jon. I go and look at the indices and here recently iv not really looked at the models much at all because I know we are on a volitile setup with the whole pattern shifting. Volatile indeed. If you look at the runs, even the ensembles and take each one verbatim, you'll get disappointed somewhere. The pattern is changing for the better. I truly think even at 500mb, the models don't have it figured out yet for the pattern change. I know we hear this all the time, but it takes a while for teleconnections to translate into something tangible. I expect to see drastic changes pretty soon on each run, for example from 00z EPS to 12z EPS it can go from an elongated trough from east to west to a deep trough over the SE. It happens often during pattern changes, so it wouldn't surprise me given the teleconnections. What will surprise me is staying in a warm pattern with the current indices being what they are. This isn't a 97-98 or a 57-58 repeat, it's all alone. A SSWE will help, but I don't think that's what gets us winter wx in the SE this month. SSWE will likely set the stage for a killer February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Volatile indeed. If you look at the runs, even the ensembles and take each one verbatim, you'll get disappointed somewhere. The pattern is changing for the better. I truly think even at 500mb, the models don't have it figured out yet for the pattern change. I know we hear this all the time, but it takes a while for teleconnections to translate into something tangible. I expect to see drastic changes pretty soon on each run, for example from 00z EPS to 12z EPS it can go from an elongated trough from east to west to a deep trough over the SE. It happens often during pattern changes, so it wouldn't surprise me given the teleconnections. What will surprise me is staying in a warm pattern with the current indices being what they are. This isn't a 97-98 or a 57-58 repeat, it's all alone. A SSWE will help, but I don't think that's what gets us winter wx in the SE this month. SSWE will likely set the stage for a killer February. 100% agree with everything in this post. Except to clarify, if a SSWE (major) occurs later in January then it could be unrelenting in January with this STJ being modeled. Not ready to slam dunk a SSWE just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Look at the ridge in the Caribbean...when's that going away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I'm not sure where this is coming from. I think the discussion is whether or not we can get cold and snow with lower heights stuck out west; which I think is a good discussion. The models including ensembles have been consistently lower heights in the west/above normal temps in the east the next two weeks for days now, all the while the AO is going negative. I don't think there's a snap judgement been made about one op model run. I don't even look at op runs at this point. Yesterday the LOONG range Euro Ens showed the low heights finally making it east but that was in the 15 day range I think. I don't know what they say today...I don't have access. Currently they have it making its way by hour 288, which is January 10-11th I believe. They only do so when the 500mb low kicks out of the SW and that is the key imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Look at the ridge in the Caribbean...when's that going away... Well it was not even there during that period on the 00z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Look at the ridge in the Caribbean...when's that going away... Probably the next set of model runs On a serious note though, the GEFS has been much warmer with the extended range versus the Euro and Canadian. I would put more confidence in the Euro ensemble output especially since the GEFS was just recently upgraded and we don't really know how well they perform over the course of a winter and with pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Well it was not even there during that period on the 00z GEFS HUH? I posted the latest day 11-15 GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 HUH? I posted the latest day 11-15 GEFS.[/quoteMy point was you asking when it's gonna move out like it's been there for days and days on the GEFS . Just shows even the ensembles will go back and forth Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 HUH? I posted the latest day 11-15 GEFS.[/quoteMy point was you asking when it's gonna move out like it's been there for days and days on the GEFS . Just shows even the ensembles will go back and forth Sent from my iPhone Agreed, anything past day 12 is highly volatile right now, I think everyone can agree on that. It could be a transient cool shot mid Jan or it could be something that settles in. I don't know, nobody knows, but my guess is that it's transient and we have to wait until end of Jan into Feb. As a reference these are the 5-10 and 10-15 2m temps on the newest EPS parallel, old EPS agrees too. We know the first half of Jan will be AN, yeah we have a few cool days in first week of Jan but we will return to the 60F's for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 What's the chance this storm could shift NW at day 5: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_120_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20151230+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Volatile indeed. If you look at the runs, even the ensembles and take each one verbatim, you'll get disappointed somewhere. The pattern is changing for the better. I truly think even at 500mb, the models don't have it figured out yet for the pattern change. I know we hear this all the time, but it takes a while for teleconnections to translate into something tangible. I expect to see drastic changes pretty soon on each run, for example from 00z EPS to 12z EPS it can go from an elongated trough from east to west to a deep trough over the SE. It happens often during pattern changes, so it wouldn't surprise me given the teleconnections. What will surprise me is staying in a warm pattern with the current indices being what they are. This isn't a 97-98 or a 57-58 repeat, it's all alone. A SSWE will help, but I don't think that's what gets us winter wx in the SE this month. SSWE will likely set the stage for a killer February.Could not agree with you more. Also to take in is that this is a huge shift in the whole northern hemisphere pattern starting with the pna, then the ao, then maybe the epo, then hopefully the nao. I mean all the indices are completely changing around virtually. That is going to cause some huge swings in the models from run to run. That's a lot to take in for the models. As you said that's why it's so important to look at the indices instead of the models right know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 gfs is cold for next week. not sure why everyone is acting like jan will be a december redux. highs in the 30s and 40s, yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Look at the ridge in the Caribbean...when's that going away... The map referenced is very strange. It would be very unusual if everything depicted on it verifies. Not saying that just because it shows higher heights in the SE, but because it has higher than normal heights in the SE US, Alaska and Greenland. To my naked and untrained eye, this is no monster ridge in the SE and there is still evidence of a STJ. I would not predict an ice box SE based on this, but neither would I broad brush a warm forecast either. Last thing to note is that it is one set of US ensembles. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 GFS looks like it's starting to catch on at 240...lots of cold air funneling into Canada, with warmer air starting to hit the west coast and that PNA+ starting to setup. It'll be interesting to see how the LR looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The good news is, 12z GFS brings the goods just past 300 hours. The bad news is 12z GFS brings the goods just past 300 hours. PNA+ with highs dropping out of Canada and pieces of energy floating through California. Hopefully, we can get this sort of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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