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Met Winter Banter

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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NittanyWx

NittanyWx

Posted
Posted

On Dec 22 - people were arguing phase 8 pos enso / 11 - 15 euro 850 anomalies / L/R Canadian ensembles argued for + 3 to +5 and ugly .

 

All I said was that period ( which becomes the 1st - 6th ) , we would be BN .

 

Now -1 at KNYC no longer qualifies . 

 

Got it 

 

No, you really do not get it.  At all.  Which is your biggest problem right now and why I'm guessing you're getting combative again.

 

When other people offer legitimate insights into what is happening and post facts to back them up, you try and turn it around on them and twist words into something they do not mean.  A normal person learns, a rational person tries to take what is being said and digests it instead of throwing a fit and acting like they had the right idea all along.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

A quick note...

 

Previously, I expected a colder pattern to lock in around mid-month +/- a few days following a variable period of alternating warm and cold anomalies for the first half of January. Given the MJO and forecast SOI (really corroborating one another), I now expect to be wrong about the cold locking in. Instead, it appears that warmth and cold will continue to alternate for the time being. This won't be a December 2015-style disaster, but it won't be a gem like late January 1966 either.

 

The GFS ensembles and ECMWF ensembles (which, at first glance, seem to try to break down the AO- by 240 hours) point toward a growing risk of a period of more sustained warmth as the month nears an end. That outcome would also be consistent with an MJO in Phases 2 or 3 during strong El Niño events during the 1/15-2/15 timeframe. Ironically, February 2-15, 1998 featured an AO-/PNA+, yet wound up warmer than normal during MJO Phases 2 and 3. 

 

These points only cover the remainder of January and refer largely to temperature anomalies. I still think February could be blocky with opportunities for snow and cold. However, I believe that idea is more uncertain than typical for El Niño and blocking climatology.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Not sure if it has been mentioned and even tho I dont like op guidance at this range, the CMC and Navgem from 12z are both threatening looking and the JMA is an absolute bomb for Jan 22-23! This is far from etched in stone wrt any forecast during that period. Turbulent times ahead.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

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NittanyWx

NittanyWx

Posted
Posted

These points only cover the remainder of January and refer largely to temperature anomalies. I still think February could be blocky with opportunities for snow and cold. However, I believe that idea is more uncertain than typical for El Niño and blocking climatology.

 

Good post Don.

 

I think we're largely deviating from "typical" ENSO climatology this year due to the sub-seasonal points you've referenced above (ENSO modulated MJO having a significant impact on mid and high latitude tele-connections).  I'd also throw one more piece in there for December...to me, the reason that was so warm was not only the IO forcing with an ENSO background state, but a large scale stratospheric influence to it as well.  Rare to see such a strong PV, and I think that's why (to date) the stratospheric component to this PV has remained robust amid wave 1 and wave 2 activity.

 

Signing off for now.  Have a good weekend all.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Not sure if it has been mentioned and even tho I dont like op guidance at this range, the CMC and Navgem from 12z are both threatening looking and the JMA is an absolute bomb for Jan 22-23! This is far from etched in stone wrt any forecast during that period. Turbulent times ahead.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

Pouring heavy snow in this panel along the entire coast except extreme SE Cape Cod and Nantucket Island.

 

P1_GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

Good post Don.

 

I think we're largely deviating from "typical" ENSO climatology this year due to the sub-seasonal points you've referenced above (ENSO modulated MJO having a significant impact on mid and high latitude tele-connections).  I'd also throw one more piece in there for December...to me, the reason that was so warm was not only the IO forcing with an ENSO background state, but a large scale stratospheric influence to it as well.  Rare to see such a strong PV, and I think that's why (to date) the stratospheric component to this PV has remained robust amid wave 1 and wave 2 activity.

 

Signing off for now.  Have a good weekend all.

Thanks NittanyWx.

 

It's an amazing winter regardless how it turns out (of course, I'd prefer more cold and snow). Great point about the PV. I suspect it's contribution to the overall outcome has been large.

 

IMO, one of the great things about every winter is a chance to go back to try to learn something from what happened. I suspect when it comes to "lessons," this winter will be more "generous" than usual.

 

Have a great holiday weekend, as well.

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CiBill

CiBill

Posted
Posted

Whoa, things looked to have gotten bad since I last posted. Looks like the huge pattern change didn't quite play out as was expected. I cautioned folks around here to not jump ship too quickly, but hey, there's still some more time for a more favorable change in the pattern (that actually produces snow, that is.)

 

But what shocked me the most on here is how desperate people are for some snow. I remember that there was a time looking past 8 days on any model was frowned upon, or laughed at. And don't even get me started with the JMA. But now people are treating the 10 day GFS like it's some sort of a prophecy, and the JMA has become some kind of messiah.

 

Are people so desperate for snow, that they're actually jumping on anything that shows a little snow? We should try to be a bit more calm. I mean, It will snow (+1 inch I'm sure) before winter ends, I can assure you that. Just be glad you don't have it like severe weather enthusiasts, who can go years without a rumble of thunder.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Whoa, things looked to have gotten bad since I last posted. Looks like the huge pattern change didn't quite play out as was expected. I cautioned folks around here to not jump ship too quickly, but hey, there's still some more time for a more favorable change in the pattern (that actually produces snow, that is.)

But what shocked me the most on here is how desperate people are for some snow. I remember that there was a time looking past 8 days on any model was frowned upon, or laughed at. And don't even get me started with the JMA. But now people are treating the 10 day GFS like it's some sort of a prophecy, and the JMA has become some kind of messiah.

Are people so desperate for snow, that they're actually jumping on anything that shows a little snow? We should try to be a bit more calm. I mean, It will snow (+1 inch I'm sure) before winter ends, I can assure you that. Just be glad you don't have it like severe weather enthusiasts, who can go years without a rumble of thunder.

We are now within 6 maybe 7 days. Still LR but when most ops and ensembles are screaming big east coast hit for someone, it shouldnt just be tossed. I realize u r very anti-cold and anti-snow but the threat for Jan 22-23 looks real. Plenty of support. So ur notion that things are getting worse seems like a troll-job to me.
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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

We are now within 6 maybe 7 days. Still LR but when most ops and ensembles are screaming big east coast hit for someone, it shouldnt just be tossed. I realize u r very anti-cold and anti-snow but the threat for Jan 22-23 looks real. Plenty of support. So ur notion that things are getting worse seems like a troll-job to me.

At this point, given the AO-/PNA+ pattern I believe there is potential. But it's far too soon to have much confidence, though the continuing support among some ensemble members and periodically some of the operational guidance is encouraging. Hopefully, in coming runs, the GFS will return to some of its earlier solutions and the ECMWF will begin to trend toward a threat.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

At this point, given the AO-/PNA+ pattern I believe there is potential. But it's far too soon to have much confidence, though the continuing support among some ensemble members and periodically some of the operational guidance is encouraging. Hopefully, in coming runs, the GFS will return to some of its earlier solutions and the ECMWF will begin to trend toward a threat.

Well said Don and pretty much echoes my thoughts attm.
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CiBill

CiBill

Posted
Posted

We are now within 6 maybe 7 days. Still LR but when most ops and ensembles are screaming big east coast hit for someone, it shouldnt just be tossed. I realize u r very anti-cold and anti-snow but the threat for Jan 22-23 looks real. Plenty of support. So ur notion that things are getting worse seems like a troll-job to me.

Right, I'm trolling once a month.

 

Do you even read your own posts? You're accusing me of trolling, and being anti cold/snow based off of my previous posts where I was simply warning others to be cautious of a pattern change? I like snow, but I don't like snow weenies who needlessly get people's hopes up and down, and attack others like you're doing right now. Stop focusing on how the low could "shift a bit and give us a MECS" and focus more on the actual, probable outcome based on evidence from both sides, not just the evidence that points to the most snow.

 

There's a reason why Don and Nittany are one of my favorite posters around here. They aren't afraid to admit they're wrong whey they are, and make intelligent, impartial forecasts based on probability and evidence, rather than single analogs from an obscures year in the 20th century that dumped 80 inches all across the Northeast.

 

Look, don't take this as an attack, but rather something for you to consider and keep in mind. I don't want anyone to get angry because of my post.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Right, I'm trolling once a month.

Do you even read your own posts? You're accusing me of trolling, and being anti cold/snow based off of my previous posts where I was simply warning others to be cautious of a pattern change? I like snow, but I don't like snow weenies who needlessly get people's hopes up and down, and attack others like you're doing right now. Stop focusing on how the low could "shift a bit and give us a MECS" and focus more on the actual, probable outcome based on evidence from both sides, not just the evidence that points to the most snow.

There's a reason why Don and Nittany are one of my favorite posters around here. They aren't afraid to admit they're wrong whey they are, and make intelligent, impartial forecasts based on probability and evidence, rather than single analogs from an obscures year in the 20th century that dumped 80 inches all across the Northeast.

Look, don't take this as an attack, but rather something for you to consider and keep in mind. I don't want anyone to get angry because of my post.

Not angry in the least with your post. I thought I was doing a decent job the past few days pointing out a potential Archambeault event while still strongly cautioning folks to temper their expectations. These pattern breakdowns, as you noted is coming and I support your assumption, can often lead to an East Coast storm as the nao rises from the dead. So while longer term we may get a break (Jan 25-Feb 3ish), I read your post as doom and gloom with absolutely no snow threats on the horizon at all, which is clearly not the case. The potential is there for someone along the EC to get popped late next week. All options still on the table at this point and while yes, it may fizzle to nothing, the potential is there.
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CiBill

CiBill

Posted
Posted

Not angry in the least with your post. I thought I was doing a decent job the past few days pointing out a potential Archambeault event while still strongly cautioning folks to temper their expectations. These pattern breakdowns, as you noted is coming and I support your assumption, can often lead to an East Coast storm as the nao rises from the dead. So while longer term we may get a break (Jan 25-Feb 3ish), I read your post as doom and gloom with absolutely no snow threats on the horizon at all, which is clearly not the case. The potential is there for someone along the EC to get popped late next week. All options still on the table at this point and while yes, it may fizzle to nothing, the potential is there.

Agreed. Just posted because of all the people jumping on every possible threat.

 

You know, I'm a fan of snow, but I'm also a pretty big fan of severe weather. And I can tell you this; I wouldn't give any severe threat (even if it's part of a pattern producing 3000 Joules with 60 kt shear and lapse rates in the 7s every day for a week) much thought until pretty much the day before. Now, I know that the two are not very comparable because of how localized convection is, but still, with the all the desperation around here, it seems like snow is almost approaching severe thunderstorm status, at least for us in the city.

 

Many people here don't take day +5 severe threats, even in a perfect pattern, very seriously, and I think that same mindset is quite warranted now given the kind of winter we're in (regardless of pattern potential).

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