Met Winter Banter

[IsentropicLift]

How much precipitation ?

Maybe around a tenth of an inch, slightly more on Long Island. I wouldn't completely give up on that threat but it's on life support.

[donsutherland1]

Announcement

Backing down on SSWE chances officially as of today. I will no longer mention it again this Winter, and probably any other. I think Dr. Cohen is a bright guy, and I do think LR forecasting from significantly benefit from examination of the trop and strat. This science just needs years of additional work before it can applicable. I realize other people have been telling me this. I apologize for being overly aggressive with those folks such as Nittany or Don. Warmy can gtfo, though. It doesn't take any skill or guts to go warm/snowless all the time.

There's no need to apologize to me. Scientific understanding of the stratosphere is still in need of much improvement. People can hold different views. Hopefully, over time discussions, follow-up, and research can lead to better understanding and better forecasts.

[winterwarlock]

Im at 49 and it will ho higher tomorrow will be 50s...wasnt a poster shouting about cold for this time period

[PB GFI]

Im at 49 and it will ho higher tomorrow will be 50s...wasnt a poster shouting about cold for this time period

 

yes the 12  - 21 will be below N . 2 days of AN probably  does not erase the period 

[NittanyWx]

yes the 12  - 21 will be below N . 2 days of AN probably  does not erase the period 

 

Depends on how you view the forward forecast, but right now energy space is mostly working with temps within a degree of normal for that 12-21 period at KLGA.  That's as a total period average and inclusive of the 2-3 day cold shot next week.

[mob1]

Im at 49 and it will ho higher tomorrow will be 50s...wasnt a poster shouting about cold for this time period

Just out of curiosity, where do you live? Your forecasts are always higher than ours. Anyways, today and tomorrow will be well above, it's extremely likely now that we will end January with about 2 or so above.

[PB GFI]

Depends on how you view the forward forecast, but right now energy space is mostly working with temps within a degree of normal for that 12-21 period at KLGA.  That's as a total period average and inclusive of the 2-3 day cold shot next week.

 

I am below 12 -21 . Will add it up when it`s done and see if I break B .

1- 6  7 - 11 were easy to see . This one backed up as we got closer as the vortex never pressed on the front side of the Sat storm .

I think the backside Sun - Wed will be cold and erase the A 

[NittanyWx]

Just out of curiosity, where do you live? Your forecasts are always higher than ours. Anyways, today and tomorrow will be well above, it's extremely likely now that we will end January with about 2 or so above.

 

I'm showing the following MTD anomalies as a heads up for where the starting point is:

 

KHPN: +2.86

KNYC: +1.93

KLGA:+2.93

KJFK: +2.32

KEWR: +2.14

[NittanyWx]

 

1- 6  7 - 11 were easy to see . 

Strongly disagree with that given the amount of debate that was happening in here and the market at the time.  Market action also supportive of the idea that there was minimal consensus.

[PB GFI]

Strongly disagree with that given the amount of debate that was happening in here and the market at the time.  Market action also supportive of the idea that there was minimal consensus.

 

 

My call was BN  for Jan 1- 6 and AN  for Jan 7 -11 . It was easy IMO as I argued ad nauseam  about both periods then ended up verifying .

 

I think the 12- 21 are BN and the 25- 5 are AN. 

 

Some argued about 1- 6 using  the GGEM 15 day if you remember and others the CFS .

I  bought the Euro and caught both periods .

 

We will see how these 2 workout . 

[NittanyWx]

My call was BN  for Jan 1- 6 and AN  for Jan 7 -11 . It was easy IMO as I argued ad nauseam  about both periods then ended up verifying .

 

I think the 12- 21 are BN and the 25- 5 are AN. 

 

Some argued about 1- 6 using  the GGEM 15 day if you remember and others the CFS .

I  bought the Euro and caught both periods .

 

We will see how these 2 workout . 

 

Time out...Jan 1-6 verification:

 

KHPN: -0.33

KLGA: -0.25

KNYC:  -1.08

KJFK: -.0.75

 

That averages out to -0.6.  That's normal in the weather world.  Jan 7-12, you called at +2, it finished at +7 to +8 in the region.  Let's be fair here...

[NittanyWx]

Anyway, looking forward now, it does appear that there is still a tropical component to this pattern in the form of the MJO.  The amplitude of this event does not appear to be matching the one that occurred in December (which makes sense, since it was one of the strongest MJO events I've ever seen and subsequently was a significant contributor to a major WWB at the dateline).  I would think that any forward forecast would need to account for this moving forward.

 

Not as easy in February with a smaller sample size overall both for this ENSO amplitude and with a coherent MJO signal as well.  

[PB GFI]

Time out...Jan 1-6 verification:

 

KHPN: -0.33

KLGA: -0.25

KNYC:  -1.08

KJFK: -.0.75

 

That averages out to -0.6.  That's normal in the weather world.  Jan 7-12, you called at +2, it finished at +7 to +8 in the region.  Let's be fair here...

 

 

I have always used KNYC .  I don`t use KISP or KBLM or KMMU etc . Was very specific . 

 

TIME OUT HERE IS RIGHT 

KNYC was - 1  .  At the time YOU said those 850 anomalies were plus 3 to  5 at the surface under sunny skies and bare ground 

 

7 - 11 was AN , now I `m wrong because I wasn`t warm enough as a storm cut to the lakes in the midst of the warm up   

[snowman19]

Anyway, looking forward now, it does appear that there is still a tropical component to this pattern in the form of the MJO. The amplitude of this event does not appear to be matching the one that occurred in December (which makes sense, since it was one of the strongest MJO events I've ever seen and subsequently was a significant contributor to a major WWB at the dateline). I would think that any forward forecast would need to account for this moving forward.

Not as easy in February with a smaller sample size overall both for this ENSO amplitude and with a coherent MJO signal as well.

MJO reemerges in the IO and forcing in that region strongly argues for warmth for the end of January and the beginning of February...

[NittanyWx]

I have always used KNYC .  I don`t use KISP or KBLM or KMMU etc . Was very specific . 

 

TIME OUT HERE IS RIGHT 

KNYC was - 1  .  At the time YOU said those 850 anomalies were plus 3 to  5 at the surface under sunny skies and bare ground 

 

7 - 11 was AN , now I `m wrong because I wasn`t warm enough .  

 

We had this argument two weeks ago, are you seriously trying to have this again?  You admitted were wrong then and you're wrong again now.  I don't want to have this argument again, so I'm just gonna quote what was said and be done with it.  Jesus man, give it a rest.

 

 

For what it's worth, think there's an opening for a couple of colder days right around New Years.  Pattern argues for a bit more volatility than we've seen.  That part of the discussion being had in here is correct

 

 

11-15 day would be your Jan 2-6 period.  Lo and behold, a two day cold front.  The NYC metropolitan area averaged -.6 degrees for the period, which is essentially normal.  You would know this, as any legitimate scale used by the market and vendor community doesn't even bother with contours in 5 day intervals that are less than 2 degrees in separation.  This applies to WSI, MDA and CWG.

 

 

The Kara Sea high is beyond impressive, it is absolutely ridiculous based on what I've seen historically.

Anyway, regarding this pattern the split flow nature of this in the 11-15 day would not be a cold signal on the east coast. This is one of those situations where the teleconnections look better, but the east still gets flooded with mild air.

Still think the playbook here is to follow the Nino filtered MJO analogs. They argue this cool shot is likely underforecast short term and consequently the GEFS would likely be too cold 11-15.

 

 

This would be the Jan 7-12 period, which just finished +7 to +8 in NYC proper.

 

That mid-month period looks like it's got the best potential (to me, anyway) right now, should this block be believed on modeling. 

 

Meanwhile, the undercut out west continues to support the idea of largely above normal temperatures locally for a good chunk of early Jan (absent a transient cool shot this weekend, though even that is rolling in warmer).  Also of note...So Cal likely to finally get soaked.

 

 

Enough man. Verification and forecasts have been posted.  It is what it is.

 

You said:

 

I read them and I disagree. You have D/L forcing which is forcing that NEG W near AK it is pulling the POS back way west into W Canada.

HP is forced to roll off the back side of that ridge and thru the lakes.

The source region is colder in nature and does not modify .

It's why you see the guidance say N at 2m days 11 thru 15 only get colder days 5 thru 10.

11 thru 15 trend toward N and not mild IMO.

 

 

Again, 11-15 day period.  Jan 7-12.  I'm done with this.

[NittanyWx]

Now, if you wanted clear information on what I was specifically talking about when it comes to +3 to +5 temperatures, I was referring to MJO phase 8.  Which was this post here:

 

 

 

 

Here's the problem with your MJO argument.  In ENSO filtered MJO events (those years where we have Jan ENSO 3.4 anomalies >1 degree above normal) both phase 8 and phase 1 are both positively correlated to above normal temps in the northeast.  So, if you're arguing more of a phase 8 look to it, you're actually arguing for more warmth in the northeast.  That's actually reflected pretty well in the Euro ENS today, which had a +3 to +5 anomaly painted over the northeast as a mean for the 11-15 day period.

 

 

Explaining ENSO filtered MJO analogs, what a model is showing, and why a model is showing a certain outcome is part of contributing to the board.  Which was the whole intent of my interactions here over the past few weeks.

 

You don't pay me for a view.  My employer does.  That's generally why I post general ideas on the state of the atmosphere, interesting information as it relates to the weather today, and broad ideas on a general pattern.  Generally I enjoy doing it.  But if you're gonna start throwing **** in my face when its 1) Not what I said and 2) Still flat our wrong, I'm gonna do a lot less of it in here.

 

Seriously, enough man.

[Parsley]

You don't pay me for a view. My employer does. That's generally why I post ideas and information and broad ideas on a general pattern. Generally I enjoy doing it. But if you're gonna start throwing **** in my face when its 1) Not what I said and 2) Still flat our wrong, I'm gonna do a lot less of it in here.

Seriously, enough man.

You've made excellent, educated, worthwhile posts here all winter. I think most levelheaded posters here appreciate it.

Keep up the good work.

[PB GFI]

My word the Canadian Ens is ugly at the end.  GEFS also a good bit warmer late 11-15 day as well vs. the 0z.

 

 

This is what we  1 st argued over . this was the 1 - 6 ( That`s how I came up w AN vs BN ) for the period   .  IDGAF what u saw a week later 

 

I argued week 1 Jan . 

Many were AN ( ugly ) does not mean N . 

1-6 KNYC  -1 

[FPizz]

You've made excellent, educated, worthwhile posts here all winter. I think most levelheaded posters here appreciate it.

Keep up the good work.

Exactly.  Nitt's posts are much appreciated.

[MJO812]

Euro ensembles ticked northwest with the low sunday night. Not enough though but going to keep am eye on it.

[UnionWeatherWx]

Euro ensembles ticked northwest with the low sunday night. Not enough though but going to keep am eye on it.

:weenie:

[Brian5671]

Agree. We need the mets here so let's not chase them away.

[Ericjcrash]

Since when is everyone so concerned with temperature departures?

[WaPo]

Since there's nothing else to talk about right now. 

[PB GFI]

On Dec 22 - people were arguing phase 8 pos enso / 11 - 15 euro 850 anomalies / L/R Canadian ensembles argued for + 3 to +5 and ugly .

 

All I said was that period ( which becomes the 1st - 6th ) , we would be BN .

 

Now -1 at KNYC no longer qualifies . 

 

Got it 

[IsentropicLift]

Since there's nothing else to talk about right now.

How about the sub 980mb low that will be south of LI around midnight?

[NittanyWx]

This is what we  1 st argued over . this was the 1 - 6 ( That`s how I came up w AN vs BN ) for the period   .  IDGAF what u saw a week later 

 

I argued week 1 Jan . 

Many were AN ( ugly ) does not mean N . 

1-6 KNYC  -1 

 

Cool.  Describing what the Canadian Ensemble and GFS ensemble were showing at the time is a forecast now.

[PB GFI]

Cool.  Describing what the Canadian Ensemble and GFS ensemble were showing at the time is a forecast now.

 

 

Dude , all I said was the period  from 10 days away would be BN , it was and you are telling me I was wrong . 

 

I didn`t come at you , you came at me .

[Ericjcrash]

How about the sub 980mb low that will be south of LI around midnight?

Yeah...I mean who cares if yesterday was -2 or -3? A bombing low that will directly impact all of us, much more exciting.

[Brian5671]

How about the sub 980mb low that will be south of LI around midnight?

no snow so no one cares. Christ if you dropped me back to earth from Mars on 1/16 and told me that I'd say we were in for a MECS