josh_4184 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 GFS has 850 temps -25 to -30 would be epic LES after decent synoptic event, to bad its 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 If that storm ejects slower that you guys are eyeing, then we could be talking about a blizzard in a week. Bye, bye +AO if the ridge builds over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 0z GGEM has the main low and an upper level low(I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Thread the needle event of the GGEM. 850mb level is plenty cold, it's the shallow boundary layer being an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Euro has not one, but two potentials of severe weather for the region, one on the 23rd and another on 26th. I would say both have pretty high ceilings too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Probably going to need to start a thread for this soon, perhaps on the main board, since multiple sub-forums may be involved. The 00z Euro run was almost certainly showing a significant and widespread severe weather event on the 23rd into Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Probably going to need to start a thread for this soon, perhaps on the main board, since multiple sub-forums may be involved. The 00z Euro run was almost certainly showing a significant and widespread severe weather event on the 23rd into Christmas Eve. NAM, too. But it's the hour 84 NAM... while it's very impressive, I don't put much stock into it at this point. Dr. Forbes has a TORCON of 4 for Wednesday... mostly around the mid-Mississippi valley. NWS Birmingham has a really alarming AFD NOW ON TO THE POSSIBLE HIGH IMPACT PART OF THE FORECAST...MODELS ARE IN SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY...AND IT IS NOT GOOD NEWS. SEVERAL HISTORIC COOL-SEASON SEVERE WEATHER ANALOGS ARE SHOWING UP BASED ON THE FORECAST UPPER-AIR PATTERN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH MORE VORTICITY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR TO OUR NORTHWEST AND SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE FALLS FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS INTO OUR AREA...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ACROSS A LARGE AREA. THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...BUT IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAT COASTAL CONVECTION WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR IN POLEWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION. ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT RAIN DEPARTS TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING UNUSUALLY RICH GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE INLAND FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF THIS OCCURS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME RIPE FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS... PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF OUR AREA... SHOW ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEARLY TEXTBOOK WIND SHEAR PROFILES. IF THIS OCCURS... SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH GULF COAST CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY...AND IT MAY MAKE OR BREAK THIS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Boy I can't wait to see what the 00z GFS eventually does with the system after Christmas. Looks like it could be entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Boy I can't wait to see what the 00z GFS eventually does with the system after Christmas. Looks like it could be entertaining. Lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Lots of rain. Texas panhandle gets destroyed with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Nice to see those lower heights over the pole disappear by New Years. That high north of Scandinavia is crazy strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Are you asking if we'd have a frostless April after a Morch? I think it would be impossible to have that happen. Eventually there would be a cold snap at some point maybe even in May. That's what I thought, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Nice to see those lower heights over the pole disappear by New Years. That high north of Scandinavia is crazy strong. Yes it is strong, but it isn't as focused into the north pole like previous runs, previous runs move it more over the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Nice to see those lower heights over the pole disappear by New Years. That high north of Scandinavia is crazy strong. The slow process of a change perhaps. Many in the NE forum think so (talking the trusted ones, not the weenies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The slow process of a change perhaps. Many in the NE forum think so (talking the trusted ones, not the weenies). The Scandinavian ridge is a known precursor to PV weakening, so it is important that it come to fruition as previously modeled. Powerful/deep GOA low further west/near the dateline by D10 on the EC as well. That is also a recognized precursor. Together, they could do some damage to the PV. I'm not holding my breath...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 wash, rinse, repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's never ending. This might be a complete dumpster fire from start to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 wash, rinse, repeat The 12z GEM even more impressive with a 23mb drop in 24hrs Sunday into Monday. Both models deliver the goods to the MSP area. With this type of pattern you'd think it's only a matter of time before the MSP peeps get maylayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's never ending. This might be a complete dumpster fire from start to finish. Yep, for the most part the GFS is a disaster. Getting into Jan now and it's abysmal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Yep, for the most part the GFS is a disaster. Getting into Jan now and it's abysmal. Might tag along with a Rocky Mountain group in Feb and forget the midwest this winter if it keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Yep, for the most part the GFS is a disaster. Getting into Jan now and it's abysmal. At least run-to-run, the GFS has been indicating normal to slightly above normal temperatures in the eastern third of the country post-truncation. You can get snow with above normal temperatures-- it's just a bit harder to. I'm not saying January is going to be great, but it doesn't look as terrible as December-- which isn't saying much. The Euro isn't quite on board, but there's a fair amount of cold air to be had out west. The Texas panhandle looks to majorly cash in on the Christmas system, so the cold air is there. We just need to stay patient and let the PV run its course. It's a driving meteorological feature-- it won't be overnight. But it'll happen eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 At least run-to-run, the GFS has been indicating normal to slightly above normal temperatures in the eastern third of the country post-truncation. You can get snow with above normal temperatures-- it's just a bit harder to. I'm not saying January is going to be great, but it doesn't look as terrible as December-- which isn't saying much. The Euro isn't quite on board, but there's a fair amount of cold air to be had out west. The Texas panhandle looks to majorly cash in on the Christmas system, so the cold air is there. We just need to stay patient and let the PV run its course. It's a driving meteorological feature-- it won't be overnight. But it'll happen eventually. The GFS shunts everything to the FAR northeast and leaves the midwest in a SW flow. It's 2011-2012 on steroids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The new Euro shows a potential light snow event Christmas Eve from parts of MO/IA through northern IL into central-lower MO. The GFS has this as well, although it craps out sooner and dries up near the MS river. Would probably be more mood flakes than anything, but given the fact that it would happen on xmas eve would be pretty cool. Especially after the recent warmth. The Euro has been showing this little wave in previous runs, but this is the most robust it's been with it so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This is the first time in seemingly forever both the gfs and gem ENSEMBLES are showing colder than normal temps in the long range. Just get me out of this torch pattern and I'll take my chances, whatever side of normal temps are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The 12Z GFS has a lack of snow so large it hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's never ending. This might be a complete dumpster fire from start to finish.Check out the ensemble means when you check out the OP runs. It's clearly a better pattern going forward. Going to the UP in late Feb, hoping for lots of snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 When your only hope is the truncated GFS, there isn't hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The new Euro shows a potential light snow event Christmas Eve from parts of MO/IA through northern IL into central-lower MO. The GFS has this as well, although it craps out sooner and dries up near the MS river. Would probably be more mood flakes than anything, but given the fact that it would happen on xmas eve would be pretty cool. Especially after the recent warmth. The Euro has been showing this little wave in previous runs, but this is the most robust it's been with it so far. It's too warm for snow verbatim with surface temps in the 40s for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 When your only hope is the truncated GFS, there isn't hope.When your only hope is the OP gfs than you are in big trouble, regardless of pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 It's too warm for snow verbatim with surface temps in the 40s for much of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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