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Central PA - Winter 2015-16 Disco


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Just getting caught up but quick look maybe January 22, 2007 for measuring .1" or greater ?

 

Thought initially it was January 28, 1928 but .4" was recorded November 8, 1927 with nothing more than a trace until then!

  

Bringing up a post from Dec 9th, as CTP had shared a graphic that day show latest trace and 1 inch snowfall. The crappy 94/95 winter is well represented in that graphic as is the 06-07 winter. UNV didn't have an inch of snowfall until January 29th in 2007.

 

Then there's York's latest inch of snow, the 22nd of February in 1993...as in the 92/93 winter. I thought that stat was pretty wild.

Thanks guys!

Tonight feels so awesome.

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At work, but station by my house is reading 20. Still have a little bit of wind here in the valley, but areas that have decoupled are easily in the teens. I expect the temp to drop to low teens here tonight with biting wind chill when it gusts. Love it. I also like the look of the Euro Ensembles. The first wave looks a bit cooler today than the past runs, but still looks iffy all around with main bulk of precip as rain. The second wave has my attention as that could be some snow for inland areas. Ensemble members clustering along the Delmarva coast, so that is always nice to see and play with. The end of the run was spectacular if you want persistent cold. The H5 depiction shows a solid core of sub 540 heights right over Hudson Bay with 540dm all the way past MD into VA. Surface temps on the Euro were biting cold with GFS even more bullish on the cold. The southern stream will be open, so we will have room to play with any southern stream waves. The period that caught my attention the most was January 16 - 19th where a southern stream wave looks to slide across the southern tier of the US and progress up the coast. Ensemble shows a core of pressure falls off the east coast and drops steadily as it heads up into the Canadian Maritimes. The last couple days have been showing a solid pressure fall off the MA coast for that time period, so if you really want to keep your eyes open for anytime, that seems to be a legit target. Any time beforehand will be tricky as the cold pattern sets up for next week. There could be a nice little disturbance early next week after the dual wave setup passes, but that's of course pending on the exact outcome of the previous two disturbances. If it were to happen, looks like a nice cold smoke for CPA and into the highlands. And if anyone has family or friends near the Lakes, tell them to sharpen their shovels and gas up the blowers, because Lake Erie will be open for business after this weekend and it could be nuts for a while. 

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I saw 11 on home weather station (present to myself for xmas)  :santa:

 

Dare i say....it's COLD!  

 

Trying to stay "chill" w/ the weekend event, in hopes that it sets the table for next week. While it looked like a shot some days back, as the pattern is transitioning, likely a rainer for us.  That said, I applaud many of you red taggers (and weenies too) that targeted mid Jan several weeks back.  Looks on target for our first chances at something appreciable (like Millville said...lakes gonna really do some business on snow country downwind of them.)  Have a good day all.

 

Nut

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I've never been to Roundtop during Winter but I have ice skated down Blue Knob in Claysburg (and took out a pair of folks who didn't speak English and meine Deutsch ist nicht sehr gut) and if they're even remotely close, your kids will only be the middle pair of bowling balls in an alley full of broken pins.

Actually, I've been to Whitetail in Mercersburg (Valentine's Day 2003 before PDII) and they're sister resorts. Very nice trails and good bases. Roundtop is probably tip-top.

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I've never been to Roundtop during Winter but I have ice skated down Blue Knob in Claysburg (and took out a pair of folks who didn't speak English and meine Deutsch ist nicht sehr gut) and if they're even remotely close, your kids will only be the middle pair of bowling balls in an alley full of broken pins. Actually, I've been to Whitetail in Mercersburg (Valentine's Day 2003 before PDII) and they're sister resorts. Very nice trails and good bases. Roundtop is probably tip-top.

 

Blue Knob is usually where I go, I've been to Seven Springs and Tussey Mountain a few times. Blue Knob is great when there's abundant snow but yea lol.. it's pretty unforgiving when it's icy. Biggest regret was ending up with a high ankle sprain snowboarding up there on an icy night about a week before the Feb 2010 onslaught began. 

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Blue Knob is usually where I go, I've been to Seven Springs and Tussey Mountain a few times. Blue Knob is great when there's abundant snow but yea lol.. it's pretty unforgiving when it's icy. Biggest regret was ending up with a high ankle sprain snowboarding up there on an icy night about a week before the Feb 2010 onslaught began. 

took my son to get his upgraded snowboard (went from k2 to burton blundt).  if he were hitting the slopes tomorrow, I'd be throwing his name into the competition above...

 

Glad the ski resorts are going to get some usage....I'm sure they are/were sweatin it out a little.

 

Nut

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I've never been to Roundtop during Winter but I have ice skated down Blue Knob in Claysburg (and took out a pair of folks who didn't speak English and meine Deutsch ist nicht sehr gut) and if they're even remotely close, your kids will only be the middle pair of bowling balls in an alley full of broken pins. Actually, I've been to Whitetail in Mercersburg (Valentine's Day 2003 before PDII) and they're sister resorts. Very nice trails and good bases. Roundtop is probably tip-top.

My daughter has an advantage card and skis 4-5 times a winter. She's 14 and a quick learner. I have no worries about her.

 

My son is 16 and has zero fear. He's skied 4-5 times TOTAL and think's he's ready for double black diamonds. Every time he goes I'm afraid he's not coming back, lol. 

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My daughter has an advantage card and skis 4-5 times a winter. She's 14 and a quick learner. I have no worries about her.

 

My son is 16 and has zero fear. He's skied 4-5 times TOTAL and think's he's ready for double black diamonds. Every time he goes I'm afraid he's not coming back, lol. 

ah, to be young again  :sled:  :pimp:  :lmao:

 

Pretty chilly this morning in the village. My coldest so far at 9 degrees!

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Another ray of hope for us snow starved ones....

 

From Don S.

 

Extreme Blocking Forecast...

 

To date, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has averaged +0.973 during the 2015-16 meteorological winter. 76% of days have seen the AO positive and 59% of days have seen the AO at or above +1.000. On 8% of days, the AO has been +3.000 or above. Its highest value has been +4.503, which was reached on December 22, 2015. The AO has been negative on 24% of days and at -1.000 or below on 16% of days. Its lowest value so far is -2.299, which was reached on January 5, 2016.

 

However, the latest GFS ensembles are forecast the AO to plunge. There is strong agreement among the ensemble members that the AO will fall to -5.000 or below.

 

Such extreme values are uncommon. However, such extreme values have become somewhat more common since 2000.

 

Such extreme blocking would suggest troughing in eastern North America. More importantly, should such extreme blocking develop, it would provide a strong signal of a blocky February. In short, even as the most recent December proved to be an autumn, not winter month, an extreme AO-, should it develop, could offer the strongest signal so far that there will be plenty of opportunity for winter weather from mid-January onward. North America and Europe would both see such opportunities if past extreme January blocking cases are representative.

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