November 2015 Discussion

[Powerball]

Indiana, yes, Michigan naso much.

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Meh, both of those were extremely anomalous events. Certainly not the norm.

 

Areas in the western part of the subforum benefits from being SW of the Great Lakes (thus not having to contend with the stabilizing effects from the cool waters) and also being relatively closer to the affects of the Chinook winds.

[Geos]

Clouds are starting to brighten here, but they're are pretty solid deck still. Going to under perform today I think.

[Stebo]

Meh, both of those were extremely anomalous events. Certainly not the norm.

 

Areas in the western part of the subforum benefits from being SW of the Great Lakes (thus not having to contend with the stabilizing effects from the cool waters) and also being relatively closer to the affects of the Chinook winds.

We average a decent late October to mid November severe/tornado event every few years, it isn't as rare as you are making it out to be.

[snowlover2]

Great way to end November with tOSU putting a thumping on that school up north!!

[cyclone77]

Could be a pretty fun game to watch tonight in Denver.  Looks like it should start snowing there and snow most of the game.  Looks like a few inches could fall during the game.  Should be a really good game as well.

 

Quite a different scene around here compared to this time last weekend when we had 6"+ snow on the ground still.  It looks more like November again instead of December.  

 

Shot this barn earlier.  Thought it looked pretty cool there tucked inside the willow trees.

[Geos]

Very nice picture Cyclone^

 

Today was colder than predicted. Had some sun, but it was obscured most of the day by high clouds. High 38°, low 22°

[weatherbo]

Could be a pretty fun game to watch tonight in Denver.  Looks like it should start snowing there and snow most of the game.  Looks like a few inches could fall during the game.  Should be a really good game as well.

 

Quite a different scene around here compared to this time last weekend when we had 6"+ snow on the ground still.  It looks more like November again instead of December.  

 

Shot this barn earlier.  Thought it looked pretty cool there tucked inside the willow trees.

Nice pic cyclone!

 

Can't sprinkle sugar on a turd and call it sweet.

Awful start to the Winter... finishing the month as of now +6 degrees and 21" below on snow.

Meteorological fall of 2015 (Sep-Nov) will be the second least snowy for NWS Marquette (7.9") and the snowiest for Chicago O-Hare (11.2") over the past 50 years. Putting the two stats together, 2015 will mark the first time on record that Chicago has had more snow than NWS Marquette this late in the season. Last year at this time, NWS Marquette was ahead of Chicago by 53.3".

 

A few inches early this week but nothing looking good for at least the first 10 days of the month.

 

 

[slow poke]

Nice pic cyclone!

 

Can't sprinkle sugar on a turd and call it sweet.

Awful start to the Winter... finishing the month as of now +6 degrees and 21" below on snow.

Meteorological fall of 2015 (Sep-Nov) will be the second least snowy for NWS Marquette (7.9") and the snowiest for Chicago O-Hare (11.2") over the past 50 years. Putting the two stats together, 2015 will mark the first time on record that Chicago has had more snow than NWS Marquette this late in the season. Last year at this time, NWS Marquette was ahead of Chicago by 53.3".

 

A few inches early this week but nothing looking good for at least the first 10 days of the month.

 

 

Sure is for northern lower MI again this year. Crazy to think that the 12" of snow that we receved already at home down state is more then most if not all the reporting stations in northern lower so far. Wonder how long it will be before they pass us up though. I hope before Christmas or there's going to be a bunch of small bussiness type places up there hurting that really depend on the snow.

[weatherbo]

Sure is for northern lower MI again this year. Crazy to think that the 12" of snow that we receved already at home down state is more then most if not all the reporting stations in northern lower so far. Wonder how long it will be before they pass us up though. I hope before Christmas or there's going to be a bunch of small bussiness type places up there hurting that really depend on the snow.

Exactly.  Those small businesses ARE the economy up here and already feeling it.  It's been dead since leaf peepers left the first of October.  Normally there's snow machine traffic starting by now.

[josh_4184]

Exactly.  Those small businesses ARE the economy up here and already feeling it.  It's been dead since leaf peepers left the first of October.  Normally there's snow machine traffic starting by now.

This winter is goign to be ugly for probably every especially in the LES belts. Somehow we have received 7.9 ytd but in .5" increments    Wonder how long southern lakes will stay ahead as well Im guessingt until end of the month which would have to be some sort of record. 

 

[slow poke]

This winter is goign to be ugly for probably every especially in the LES belts. Somehow we have received 7.9 ytd but in .5" increments    Wonder how long southern lakes will stay ahead as well Im guessingt until end of the month which would have to be some sort of record. 

 

I hope not long. We were up in your area Friday Josh. Did some "black" Friday shopping in Gaylord, pretty crazy how that town keeps growing on the West side like it is. I wonder if it will end up hurting the downtown business eventually.

[josh_4184]

I hope not long. We were up in your area Friday Josh. Did some "black" Friday shopping in Gaylord, pretty crazy how that town keeps growing on the West side like it is. I wonder if it will end up hurting the downtown business eventually.

I was in kalamazoo for the holiday weekend havent been over there in a long time, place is still growing like crazy. Gaylord is also growing as well surprisingly, not real fast but is headed in the right direction especially west of town as you said on M32. Only downside is that alot of the growth is happning so far from the highway. After Traverse City Gaylord is the only thing around here which isnt saying much. Although being in K-zoo for a week reminded me how much both my wife and I prefer the quiet small towns in Northern Mich 

[Chicago Storm]

Going to finish as the 4th snowiest November and Fall on record for Chicago...

 

Snowiest Novembers:

1. 14.8" - 1940

2. 14.5" - 1895

3. 14.3" - 1951

4. 11.2" - 2015

5. 10.8" - 1975

6. 7.6" - 1953

7. 7.5" - 1893

8. 7.1" - 1978

9. 7.0" - 1950

10. 6.8" - 1891

 

Snowiest Met Falls:

1. 14.8" - 1940

2. 14.5" - 1895

3. 14.3" - 1951

4. 11.2" - 2015

5. 10.8" - 1975

6. 10.2" - 1989

7. 7.6" - 1953

8. 7.5" - 1893

9. 7.1" - 1978

10. 7.0" - 1950

[Hoosier]

 

Going to finish as the 4th snowiest November and Fall on record for Chicago...

 

Snowiest Novembers:

1. 14.8" - 1940

2. 14.5" - 1895

3. 14.3" - 1951

4. 11.2" - 2015

5. 10.8" - 1975

6. 7.6" - 1953

7. 7.5" - 1893

8. 7.1" - 1978

9. 7.0" - 1950

10. 6.8" - 1891

 

 

 

All of those other Novembers had multiple snows.  2015 is the only one that was a one and done. 

[Jonger]

Exactly.  Those small businesses ARE the economy up here and already feeling it.  It's been dead since leaf peepers left the first of October.  Normally there's snow machine traffic starting by now.

 

It's really hit or miss on December 1st. The average day groomers hit the trails in the Keweenaw is around Dec 5th to the 10th.

 

The latest "First Grooming" recorded by John Dee since 1999 was December 26th for the 2001-2002 winter. Even that winter ended up with 252 Inches.

 

http://johndee.com/firsts&lasts.htm

 

Last 3 big el ninos in Houghton:

 

1997-1998: 130.8

1982-1983: 165.4

1957-1958: 130.2 Worst Ever

 

Not cool.

[nzucker]

I hope not long. We were up in your area Friday Josh. Did some "black" Friday shopping in Gaylord, pretty crazy how that town keeps growing on the West side like it is. I wonder if it will end up hurting the downtown business eventually.

Strong Ninos are usually not that great in the lake effect areas since there is a lack of strong arctic air crossing the Lakes. I remember 09-10 being pretty mediocre up there as well.

How much did Marquette get in 97-98 and 82-83 compared to the long term average?

[nzucker]

OK so 97-98 was 2nd least snowiest. What is the lowest year?

It's really hard to get a -EPO pattern that produces strong arctic air in a strong El Nino where the North PAC low is enhanced.

[Jonger]

OK so 97-98 was 2nd least snowiest. What is the lowest year?

It's really hard to get a -EPO pattern that produces strong arctic air in a strong El Nino where the North PAC low is enhanced.

 

I just updated it... worst 3 are the 3 biggest el nino years.

 

Odds of this winter not being good in LES country -- pretty high.

[nzucker]

I just updated it... worst 3 are the 3 biggest el nino years.

Odds of this winter not being good in LES country -- pretty high.

Interestingly, 57-58 was a near record winter in NYC's northern suburbs with 80" here in Dobbs Ferry, the 3rd snowiest since records began in 1947. February and March were both extremely snowy after a forgettable Dec/Jan.

However, the snow was mostly because of a -NAO, which overwhelmed a poor Pacific. The PAC pattern made 57-58 a fairly warm winter nationally.

December is probably the most important month in LES locales. The reason for the low snow totals in strong Ninos is probably because December tends to be extremely warm in strong Ninos. Dec 1982 finished +10.4F in NYC, for example. Dec 1957 was also mild.

Strong Ninos are not kind to the northern tier.

[weatherbo]

It's really hit or miss on December 1st. The average day groomers hit the trails in the Keweenaw is around Dec 5th to the 10th.

 

The latest "First Grooming" recorded by John Dee since 1999 was December 26th for the 2001-2002 winter. Even that winter ended up with 252 Inches.

 

http://johndee.com/firsts&lasts.htm

 

Last 3 big el ninos in Houghton:

 

1997-1998: 130.8

1982-1983: 165.4

1957-1958: 130.2 Worst Ever

 

Not cool.

And I think MQT even had 183" in 97-98 which is a lot of snow but for an area that relies on depth, you need at least normal to slightly above to keep a good pack.  And that's not likely, but there will always be some good stretches of winter, even in El Nino years. In fact, the last two winters that occurred during a very strong El Nino still managed to produce a snowpack of at least 30+" at MQT, even if only for a short period.

[Jonger]

And I think MQT even had 183" in 97-98 which is a lot of snow but for an area that relies on depth, you need at least normal to slightly above to keep a good pack.  And that's not likely, but there will always be some good stretches of winter, even in El Nino years. In fact, the last two winters that occurred during a very strong El Nino still managed to produce a snowpack of at least 30+" at MQT, even if only for a short period.

 

I'm just going to keep an eye on the long range models and look for a hint to change, it will come eventually, but this upcoming month is looking rough.

[nzucker]

How did the area do in 72-73? That was a stronger Nino than 57-58 but had a more -PNA which may have given the Lakes more systems.

[cyclone77]

Picked up 0.45" of cold rain so far today.  0.49" total for the storm.  Pushing 7" total precip for the month.

 

Some lightning strikes showing up just to the west and southwest with some weak convection.  The active November wants to go out with a bang.

[Stebo]

How did the area do in 72-73? That was a stronger Nino than 57-58 but had a more -PNA which may have given the Lakes more systems.

45" for Detroit including 7.1" that came in November.

[michsnowfreak]

How did the area do in 72-73? That was a stronger Nino than 57-58 but had a more -PNA which may have given the Lakes more systems.

At Detroit...1972-73 had 45.0" which is slightly above normal. Actually 1957-58 is the worst of the strong ninos with only 18.0" (9th least snowy winter on record). The worst nino of all is the mod 1965-66 nino (15.4", 5th least snowy winter on record). Interestingly both of those winters had decent stretches of continuous cold and light snowcover in mid-late winter, just no good storms at all.

With a notable tendency for snowier winters lately, & 6.2" already in the books as we close November, I highly doubt a repeat of 57-58/65-66 snow-wise is of any worries. Normal is around 42", though much higher over the last decade.

[cyclone77]

Will finish with 0.55" rain for the day, and 0.59" for the 2-day storm total.  

 

Been a very wet month, with precip totals up near 7".  The weather station shows 6.21" total for the month, but it only includes a small portion of what equivalently fell with the 8.5" snowstorm on the 21st.  Had a 56mph gust on the 11th (which was probably more like 60-65mph if the anemometer was at 10m instead of 2m).  Two 2"+ heavy soakers, and even some extreme cold (for Nov standards) on the 22nd when we dipped to 5 above.  

 

Kind of sad to see the month go lol.

 

[Hoosier]

November 2015, compared to the CFS

 

 

temps

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

precip

 

 

 

[Stebo]

I'd give the temps an A and the precip a B. Too dry for the plains and had the wettest parts too far east.

[Hoosier]

I'd give the temps an A and the precip a B. Too dry for the plains and had the wettest parts too far east.

 

 

That's why I mainly focus on temps.  Precip can be easily altered based on how 1 or 2 storms track. 

[Jonger]

Extreme ENSO years are probably the best verification rate for human and computer forecasts. It's the neutral years that give everyone fits, like 2011-2012. That winter behaved almost exactly like a strong el nino, without having one. At least to an ENSO newb it appeared that way.