DeltaT13 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well as usual with my predictions this winter (I have an admittedly poor record the last few months) we have a band that is fairly steady state right now pounding the western side of the county. Perhaps I will just predict the opposite of what I want the rest of the year. To address that other comment as to why we have a high average, it's a combination of the above comments. The long Lake Ontario season coupled with signicant enhancement during nor' Easters and backend 2-4 inch events behind storms are what bring us up to our respectable average. Just peruse our 24 snowfall records and you will see that we never cash in on anything long lasting and intense. The geography and physics just aren't there. That said, the nickels and dimes are still better than many locations in the fingerlakes and genesee valley that get screwed every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 24 hr precip from the 18z gfs for the synoptic storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 24 hr precip from the 18z gfs for the synoptic storm.. gfs_precip_24hr_syracuse_25.png Most NW placement of precip I've seen yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 24 hr precip from the 18z gfs for the synoptic storm.. gfs_precip_24hr_syracuse_25.png GFS ensembles. The spread is quite extreme still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Rochester nickles and dimes its way to 100" a year based on Ontario never freezing so it gets good enhancement in the comma head of deformation bands when synoptic systems hit. KBUF is actually averaging 100.4" since the year 2000 (15 year period) which may be over that of KROC. And as far as Syracuse averaging so much, it's because its well north of the city. Syracuse proper probably gets 20-30" less a year than the airport due to the favorable location for WNW LES events. Not to mention Rochester's airport is on the SW side of the city/County as well. Probably gets 20"+ less than the NE side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS ensembles. The spread is quite extreme still. I'll take P001 and P009 for $1000 Alex... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Wow, that band is intensifying while new bands develop to my west, pretty much as good as it gets for me. Absolutely pounding snow and it would seem that I've got at least an hour before much changes. These bands on the western end are probably robbing a lot of moisture from the eastern end too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not to mention Rochester's airport is on the SW side of the city/County as well. Probably gets 20"+ less now than the NE side... Yeah kbuf is located pretty far north as well. 5 miles south and yearly average would go up substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Awesome bands. Perrysburg will get 3'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 I'll take P001 and P009 for $1000 Alex... Will just say the synoptic pattern looks much better going forward. My entire seasonal is lake effect/enhanced so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Areas around Rochester getting persistent moderate snow for last couple hrs. Rates around 1/2"/hr. Western half of lake looks to be firing up. Expect uptick in rates until midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I left Fulton around 3:30 PM with about 13" new on the day, 19" storm total. Left just as the band moved south. Ride home to B'lo was an adventure...hit the band again right at the Rt. 34/104 intersection. Passed about 10 vehicles off the road to that point. White-out conditions started at Bethel. Made it about 3 miles from Cato at which point multiple cars stopped in front of me on a hill. Heard road was completely blocked just over the hill, so nowhere to go but back...drove back through the heart of the band to 104, then down to Rt. 38. So now I'm thinking I would drive back through it for a brief time and make it to the 90 in Weedsport no problem. Um, not so much. Entire way down Rt. 38 to Port Byron was intense snow rates, frequent white-outs, and never quite sure if i was on the road or about to dive into a ditch. I'm thinking, WTF, the band can't be that wide! Finally able to check the radar when I got to the 90 and saw that the band basically sunk south off the lake and followed me all the way to Weedsport. Ride down the 90 was in and out of heavy snow the whole way as well. All told a crazy 5 hour journey, but thankful to have made it home safely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 I left Fulton around 3:30 PM with about 13" new on the day, 19" storm total. Left just as the band moved south. Ride home to B'lo was an adventure...hit the band again right at the Rt. 34/104 intersection. Passed about 10 vehicles off the road to that point. White-out conditions started at Bethel. Made it about 3 miles from Cato at which point multiple cars stopped in front of me on a hill. Heard road was completely blocked just over the hill, so nowhere to go but back...drove back through the heart of the band to 104, then down to Rt. 38. So now I'm thinking I would drive back through it for a brief time and make it to the 90 in Weedsport no problem. Um, not so much. Entire way down Rt. 38 to Port Byron was intense snow rates, frequent white-outs, and never quite sure if i was on the road or about to dive into a ditch. I'm thinking, WTF, the band can't be that wide! Finally able to check the radar when I got to the 90 and saw that the band basically sunk south off the lake and followed me all the way to Weedsport. Ride down the 90 was in and out of heavy snow the whole way as well. All told a crazy 5 hour journey, but thankful to have made it home safely. Awesome! Do you have a cabin in Fulton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I left Fulton around 3:30 PM with about 13" new on the day, 19" storm total. Left just as the band moved south. Ride home to B'lo was an adventure...hit the band again right at the Rt. 34/104 intersection. Passed about 10 vehicles off the road to that point. White-out conditions started at Bethel. Made it about 3 miles from Cato at which point multiple cars stopped in front of me on a hill. Heard road was completely blocked just over the hill, so nowhere to go but back...drove back through the heart of the band to 104, then down to Rt. 38. So now I'm thinking I would drive back through it for a brief time and make it to the 90 in Weedsport no problem. Um, not so much. Entire way down Rt. 38 to Port Byron was intense snow rates, frequent white-outs, and never quite sure if i was on the road or about to dive into a ditch. I'm thinking, WTF, the band can't be that wide! Finally able to check the radar when I got to the 90 and saw that the band basically sunk south off the lake and followed me all the way to Weedsport. Ride down the 90 was in and out of heavy snow the whole way as well. All told a crazy 5 hour journey, but thankful to have made it home safely. Should have stopped in haha. I live the next road up from the 104/34 intersection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Awesome! Do you have a cabin in Fulton? No, in-laws. Made sure I married a girl from a snowbelt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Should have stopped in haha. I live the next road up from the 104/34 intersection. Next time! That's a great location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Pretty impressive band curving into Monroe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lake bands re-aligning. Brief westerly flow and then back to multi bands. South shore ain't over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 No, in-laws. Made sure I married a girl from a snowbelt.... Haha me to! Got mine from the hills of south Eden. Check out the #3 analog for this weekends storm. The # 3 Analog is the Blizzard of 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Talk about spreading the snow wealth this year. First the west then the plains then the lakes and now the east coast. Everyone is getting some action! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Haha me to! Got mine from the hills of south Eden. Check out the #3 analog for this weekends storm. No wonder the Model Analysis site is loading slowly tonight, the weenies from the other boards here must be doing a DDS attack on NOAA servers. That analog solution isn't happening for those mopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 No wonder the Model Analysis site is loading slowly tonight, the weenies from the other boards here must be doing a DDS attack on NOAA servers. That analog solution isn't happening for those mopes. I don't know it looks really good. Most of the analogs give 1-3' for Mid Atlantic/NYC/Philly/Boston. Did you guys see the latest GFS, it has a parade of snowstorms from Chicago to Boston all at different areas. Definitely liking the chances of a good synoptic event within the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Interesting example of the local nature of LES. I live on the shore but I work 4 miles South. The weather conditions should be those made of 50 miles! At home, we've had hvy, consistent snow all night, with 6" total. 5 miles South we had on and off squalls with 3". And now the southern areas are getting nothing while a light to moderate conversion persists within a few miles of the shore. As far as this weekends storm, it's anyone's best thoughts. I don't buy the Euro. The GFS is probably too far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Very low density fluff falling. Radar not picking well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't know it looks really good. Most of the analogs give 1-3' for Mid Atlantic/NYC/Philly/Boston. Did you guys see the latest GFS, it has a parade of snowstorms from Chicago to Boston all at different areas. Definitely liking the chances of a good synoptic event within the next few weeks. I finally got on Model Analysis for a bit last night. It does look pretty entertaining over next 10 days. As far as this weekend...I like to stick with the old tried and true modelology method, which is that the last place you want to be 5 days out, is in the bullseye. 10.5" total here thusfar with this LE Storm. Some work to do today to verify the 18-24" maps...though we may get closer later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I finally got on Model Analysis for a bit last night. It does look pretty entertaining over next 10 days. As far as this weekend...I like to stick with the old tried and true modelology method, which is that the last place you want to be 5 days out, is in the bullseye. 10.5" total here thusfar with this LE Storm. Some work to do today to verify the 18-24" maps...though we may get closer later today. 8.5 inches for LES storm total....thus far... S/W that will instigate EC cyclogenisis should be onshore for 12z models....if the outputs hold serve, I think we can kiss our chances for the weekend goodbye....too much model consistency over last few runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 2 inches from the frontal passage and 2 inches from the lake effect yesterday. That was the best band I've had in awhile and all we could muster was a couple inches. At least it's white outside and the dog has something to blast around in. Hoping for some synoptic chances in the coming 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Picked up another 2" after 3 pm yesterday, now have 5" snow depth and seasonal total of 13.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Snowing at 2-3"/hr. here at SU!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just sayin'!! March 12, 1993: Today, 12z GFS T+162: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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