BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 A few hits and misses on GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 This is from today, not to much ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 I found it funny that they said they lost their snowboard in the middle of the event. First of all how is that even possible, and second of all don't you think the DC NWS should have a back-up? It is ridiculous isn't it. It's DC so they are experts at lying and bending crap down that way. Who knows, maybe all the politician hot air creates a melting effect as snow falls and gives lower ratios I really hope we get a good set-up when you come up. I'm not seeing to much cold air to generate a large event, but maybe the first week of Feb will have something to offer. I hope so too!! Looking good for around the Tug that's for sure, but when is it not haha. I'll make sure to contact you when we're out that way so we can meet and grab dinner or something and shoot the bull over weather and sports. I'd be down for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 It is ridiculous isn't it. It's DC so they are experts at lying and bending crap down that way. Who knows, maybe all the politician hot air creates a melting effect as snow falls and gives lower ratios I hope so too!! Looking good for around the Tug that's for sure, but when is it not haha. I'll make sure to contact you when we're out that way so we can meet and grab dinner or something and shoot the bull over weather and sports. I'd be down for that Sounds great man! Let me know what your plans are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Sounds great man! Let me know what your plans are.Will do. I can't wait. Always wanted to visit the Tug Get to explore the south towns of Buffalo too. Heard it's nice. We'll be all over the place haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 26, 2016 Author Share Posted January 26, 2016 I'm trying to figure out if I want to get hit with that synoptic storm a week or so out or have it go way northwest to get a nice juicy SW flow LES event? Oh, the struggles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Man i get chills every time i watch this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Yeah some great footage in that video. Just wish those two inaccurate facts weren't in it. Amazing how some of the streets look like there is only an inch or two of snow on them. Must of been some major compaction with all the traffic. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Some how we are at 50 here in fulton I enjoy the spring like day..Not so much the melting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 U can see the little pocket of 50's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Could be a fun few hours tomorrow morning.. hr 24 hr 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Some how we are at 50 here in fulton I enjoy the spring like day..Not so much the melting.. Hit 50 here as well. Most of the snow is gone, still have a patchy inch or two but lots of bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Hrrr shows this intense band tomorrow am as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 NYZ006>008-271030- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.160127T0224Z-160127T1500Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 924 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * LOCATIONS...JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND OSWEGO COUNTIES. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL FOCUS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT AND 1 TO 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY LEADING TO TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN PERSISTENT SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Coming to the Buffalo area Feb 5-9. Hopefully I'll cash in on something while I'm there considering the last storm dropped a ton of snow just south of me while I managed a whopping 6-7". Places just 15 miles south managed 15" and 50 miles south managed over 25"... Definitely a frustrating event for me so I'd love to see a nice lake effect blast in my 4 days there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Way out there but good signal for lake effect past 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Coming to the Buffalo area Feb 5-9. Hopefully I'll cash in on something while I'm there considering the last storm dropped a ton of snow just south of me while I managed a whopping 6-7". Places just 15 miles south managed 15" and 50 miles south managed over 25"... Definitely a frustrating event for me so I'd love to see a nice lake effect blast in my 4 days there... Pretty good timeframe man! There will be lake effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Pretty good timeframe man! There will be lake effect! Yeah, that set-up looks pretty decent for LES somewhere downwind in that period. The quick warmup should keep Erie open - maybe even bump up the surface temps and slightly improve the lapse rate! Gotta be some good out of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 27, 2016 Author Share Posted January 27, 2016 Yeah, that set-up looks pretty decent for LES somewhere downwind in that period. The quick warmup should keep Erie open - maybe even bump up the surface temps and slightly improve the lapse rate! Gotta be some good out of this winter. I like metros chances actually as well for the beginning period and to far out to predict mid level waves and fluctuations in wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I like metros chances actually as well for the beginning period and to far out to predict mid level waves and fluctuations in wind direction. Can I ask what you're seeing? I'm looking at position of low on 12Z Euro, wind barbs, temps at 500 and 850, at 192 hours. All of that looks like LES signal, and flow seems to favor Metro. GFS has low positioned to the south of the Euro, and a more westerly flow. That about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Can I ask what you're seeing? I'm looking at position of low on 12Z Euro, wind barbs, temps at 500 and 850, at 192 hours. All of that looks like LES signal, and flow seems to favor Metro. GFS has low positioned to the south of the Euro, and a more westerly flow. That about right? Sorry for the delayed response been busy all day. But yes that is all correct. Feb. 4th into the following week look good for LES. Where, how much, etc... will not be able to be determined for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 It's so far out there but would say a SW to eventually NW flow from Thurs into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 We want that system coming early next week to go as far NW as possible to set us up with a nice SW flow for a long period of time. We haven't had that set-up in years. We actually did see that set-up in 2014 but the lake was already frozen by that time. Watertown got pounded in early-mid Feb. They received over 70" of snow in 10 days. Whenever watertown gets hit Buffalo does as well as its a SW flow. I totally forgot about this time period and how much potential it had if it wasn't for a frozen lake. =/ 15" 26.7" 30 inches... Watertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 28, 2016 Author Share Posted January 28, 2016 Composites for next weekend into the following week and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Smells like suppression city to me..Will have to rely on clippers and lake effect, nothing out of the norm.. Nws has 2'-4" tomorrow, we'll see..Picked up about an inch yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 28, 2016 Share Posted January 28, 2016 Zzzzzzz. Wake me when May gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Happy Anniversary of the blizz of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Latest GFS looks similar to Euro for the lake effect threat. Getting more excited. Should have a better idea by early next week on intensity/placement. I am worried about dry air/placement right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 From KBUF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ISEXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PUSHESNORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...THOUGH A POTENT DRY SLOT MAY RESULT IN A DRY PERIOD PRIOR TO THECHANGE OVER. LATEST GFS/ECMWF INDICATES THE AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH FORSOME DECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY UNDER APROLONGED WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO NEED TO BEMONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EASTOF THE LAKES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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