BuffaloWeather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nice surprise. I saw a mesolow form northwest of Rochester before I went to bed, definitely produced. ...MONROE COUNTY...NORTH GREECE 9.0 1000 AM 1/21 PUBLIC1 ESE IRONDEQUOIT 5.0 730 AM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIAPENFIELD 4.5 600 AM 1/21 DEPT OF HIGHWAYSWEBSTER 4.0 530 AM 1/21 SOCIAL MEDIA4 E ROCHESTER 2.7 800 AM 1/21 COCORAHSROCHESTER AIRPORT 2.2 700 AM 1/21 ASOS5 W ROCHESTER 2.2 730 AM 1/21 COCORAHS3 W WEBSTER 0.7 1159 PM 1/20 COCORAHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tea Kettling events are very hard to forecast and affect absolutely tiny areas of the lake shore. It was a tough call for them. The snow is usually pure fluff and not a huge deal to clean up. I wouldnt give them too hard a time, its not like they are missing major events that impact large metro areas with well modeled bands. These events almost drop below mesoscale resolution sometimes. Oh well, I'll gladly take the bonus 2-3 inches I woke up to. I do agree that a radar in Rochester would be fantastic and drastically improve their nowcasting abilities. It won't happen though Tea Kettling is tricky to forecast, true, but there were plenty of signs that advisory level snows could happen with the initial convergence boundary over the lake late last evening. In BUFs AFD at 11:26PM, they mention this boundary dropping 2-3 across the area, then in the 2:59AM AFD they mention another 1-3 possible from LES based on potential connections from Huron. It wasn't until the 6:58AM discussion (after most of the snow already fell) that they issued the short-lived advisory for another 2-4 (which would place totals in warning territory). By that time, all the problems with traffic/school/etc. were well underway. Even with the fluffy nature of the snow, it still caused lots of issues this morning. There are easily over 100K people in the affected areas which woke up to quite the surprise... For northern Monroe, this could very well be the biggest event we see all winter...just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Guessing official number will be 6 inches. That 2.2 was before most snow fell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Snow is mostly over here, 3.5" new snow, 7.5" snow depth. I didn't check any radars or forecasts last night so it was a complete surprise for me, which is always nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Total new snow for us in NE Webster was 10.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Big me so forming over western part of lake. Seems to be some energy dropping south from ontario. Another surprise tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Big me so forming over western part of lake. Seems to be some energy dropping south from ontario. Another surprise tonight? Maybe Buffalo can cash in on some of that Lake Ontario goodness tonight! Some nice streamers setting up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Maybe Buffalo can cash in on some of that Lake Ontario goodness tonight! Some nice streamers setting up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Nice band about move through. Looks to miss KBUF to southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nice band about move through. Looks to miss KBUF to southwest. Coming down pretty good here, and we're about 3.5 mi WNW of KBUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Ice Volcanoes, pretty awesome stuff! http://wivb.com/2016/01/21/ice-volcanoes-form-along-lake-erie-shoreline/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Nice burst of snow here in Fulton.. Roads are covered.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Interesting tidbit from the Buffalo AFD... LOOKING AT LAKE INFLUENCES...OVER-WATER INSTABILITY WILL BE INSIGNIFICANT FOR LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN -8C. HOWEVER...LAKE PARAMETERS BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN -12C AND -16C AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS TIME FRAME WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC AND LAKE COMPONENTS WITHIN A WESTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME LIKELY BRINGING MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TOTALS DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Better then nothing I guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 22, 2016 Author Share Posted January 22, 2016 Better then nothing I guess.. Screenshot_2016-01-21-21-51-06.png IMG_20160121_215003_01.jpg It all adds up. .5" yesterday and .9" today. Pattern looks pretty boring until next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Watching potential next week. A few GEFS members have shown the potential for a very strong storm. Models just barely missing the phase. Maybe I'm just trying to distract myself though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Moisture dropping out of Ontario is sparking up some Lake enhancement over the Niagara Pennisula. It might spread all of the way down the lake. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 Moisture dropping out of Ontario is sparking up some Lake enhancement over the Niagara Pennisula. It might spread all of the way down the lake. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Would not be shocked if ne flow drops few inches fri into sat as storm heads up coast. Solid call, I really wouldnt have thought there was enough moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 Solid call, I really wouldnt have thought there was enough moisture. It is tracking a quite a bit farther north than originally modeled 2-3 days ago which certainly helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Big fluffy flakes in NE Monroe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Tim, great call. Now I'm curious too. Some analogues of similar storm tracks have given us a few fluffy inches. It's all about if enough moistur stays. I haven't had a chance to check the grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 No...of course I'm not jealous of this...not at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 This winter is dead to me. Never speak of it again. Let's move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I"m ready for spring...Parts Virgina will probably have more snow then me this year When it rains it pours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 No...of course I'm not jealous of this...not at all... All I can do at a time like this is think, regression to mean over the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I just moved back upstate from cnj, i'm not sure this isn't the new normal lol 2 of the 3 years i lived there we saw 60-70, also the same thing between 2009-2011..The 30 yr long term avg was like 22" a year lol Growing up in nj everything always seem to run inland, now it's BM or ots lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 And to add insult to injury, we get a lakes cutter in a few... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 Picked up .2" of snow overnight. Cant really be mad on locations that average 15-40" of snow a year. I've been following there forums for the last few days and it's been a historic storm for sure. Last year was Bostons and NNEs spots and this year Mid-Atlantic. It goes back and forth every couple years on there big dog storms. KBUF mentions possibility of some LES early this week. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GREATLAKES REGION WILL BRING 850 HPA TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -13 TO -16COVER THE LAKES. THIS WILL BEGIN THE FORMATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.ALOFT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PASSING ACROSS THE CENTRALGREAT LAKES REGION...AND SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGHSUGGESTS THAT THE INITIAL BANDS OF SNOW WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OFTHE LAKES...THE METRO BUFFALO AREA AND THE WATERTOWN/SLV REGION. ASTHIS OPEN SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGIONTHE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER...SUCH THAT SNOWS WILL QUICKLYDROP SOUTHWARD.THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS THAT ARE WORKING AGAINST THIS LAKE EFFECTSNOW EVENT FROM BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVELPATTERN MATCHES CLOSER TO WEAKER SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENTS FOR BUFFALOAND THE TUG HILL RATHER THAN STRONG EVENTS OF SEVERAL FEET OR MOREOF SNOW. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COLD AS RECENTEVENTS...WITH 850 HPA TEMPERATURES AVERAGING -13 TO -16C...AND NOTNEAR -20C WITH RECENT EVENTS. ALSO THE LAKES ARE COOLER NOW...WITHICE FORMING ON LAKE ERIE. THIS WILL LESSEN THE ALREADY MARGINALLAPSE RATES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. FINALLY THE BANDS OF SNOW AREEXPECTED TO BE MOVING...WITH THE PASSING OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVEWEDNESDAY. THUS AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LARGE...SEVERALFOOT SNOW EVENT FROM THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW RESPONSE...BUT STILLMODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS/POTENTIAL HEADLINES AREPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UPSTREAM LAKE BAND CONNECTIONS FORM. WILLINTRODUCE THIS NEXT LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL INTO THE HWO.AIR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD WILL TUMBLE FROM JUST ABOVE FREEZINGMONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BY TUESDAYNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 24, 2016 Author Share Posted January 24, 2016 I"m ready for spring...Parts Virgina will probably have more snow then me this year When it rains it pours cmc_pr6_slp_t850_neng_24.png Not sure t hat storm happens as only the GEM has it. Toss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Storm for beginning of feb screams ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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