BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Some temps near 40 still in Lake Erie and looks to be warm for the next week. Should top 50 on Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Nice set-up for LES. Temps won't create extreme instability, but enough to generate a long duration moderate rate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Another epic week for LES incoming per latest 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 And there are talks about a possible PV split around mid month. Looking good for winter weather lovers after Weds. It gets quite cold around mid month. I think lake Erie has a chance to completely freeze if that type of cold comes for 2-3 weeks towards the end of Feb/early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Another epic week for LES incoming per latest 0z GFS. I'm starting to get excited but not yet. I'm just happy we should have the entire month of Feb with an open lake Erie which is very rare. To add the pattern we have coming up and the potential it will bring is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 There has been an abnormally strong PV for almost the last year which has prevented us from getting in on the real cold that dominated the great lakes and North east for the last 2 seasons. El Nino was the main factor in this happening with such a strong Pac Jet. But with it weakening it is opening the door for more normal winter conditions. It's not a complete SSW but it definitely splits in the ensemble means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Nice set-up for LES. Temps won't create extreme instability, but enough to generate a long duration moderate rate event. We should be able to tap into some nice cross polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 We should be able to tap into some nice cross polar flow. A nice +PNA and Neutral/-EPO as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 We should be able to tap into some nice cross polar flow. This pattern would likely lead to more synoptic activity as well. It would also favor a more inland track than all nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 ...Depending on the strength of the greenland block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 I got excited but just finished the ESPN special about the Bills on 30 for 30 and got really depressed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 ...Depending on the strength of the greenland block. I'll take a nice +PNA with a neutral NAO any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 I got excited but just finished the ESPN special about the Bills on 30 for 30 and got really depressed again. Meh don't get me started with the bills.. btw black ice is going to create havoc for the morning commute, it was already getting icy while i was out half hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 BuffaloWeather and the rest doing a nice job re late next week and beyond....could be very long lasting event...might be L. Erie's last hurrah....and Ontario's finest event for this season....Upper lakes should still provide some nice interactions at that time....let's see where the h500 trough sets up...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 The GFS has been showing a nice prolonged WSW flow for Friday next week into Saturday for 4 runs now let's see if it holds lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 The GFS has been showing a nice prolonged WSW flow for Friday next week into Saturday for 4 runs now let's see if it holds lol GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING LOW... 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -15C MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN A MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. MODEL DETAILS DIVERGE AFTER THURSDAY... BUT BOTH GFS AND EC SUITES KEEP A FLOW OF COLDER AIR IN PLACE WITH SEVERAL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BOTTOM LINE SHOULD BE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO COLDER TEMPERATURES. ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING LOW... 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO AROUND -15C MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IN A MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL INCREASE EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. MODEL DETAILS DIVERGE AFTER THURSDAY... BUT BOTH GFS AND EC SUITES KEEP A FLOW OF COLDER AIR IN PLACE WITH SEVERAL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. THE BOTTOM LINE SHOULD BE A PROLONGED STRETCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF THE LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. Nice and btw i like how the GFS has the polar vortex split in half for late next week, things are definitely starting to look more interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Nice and btw i like how the GFS has the polar vortex split in half for late next week, things are definitely starting to look more interesting.. This statement definitely makes sense with that split. "SEVERAL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION." Lake Erie is up to 34 degrees, once it hits 32 usually takes 2 weeks or so to completely freeze with constant cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 29, 2016 Share Posted January 29, 2016 Beautiful up in the Tug today. Driving to Oswego now. Constant snow all day. Caught a few nice snow bands on the drive. Time for dinner and a snow walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2016 Author Share Posted January 29, 2016 Not bad. NEW YORK...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...PERRYSBURG 10.0 1110 AM 1/29 COOP OBSERVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Gorgeous morning on Lake Ontario in Richland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 I'll have more pictures in the coming days on my WNY journey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted January 30, 2016 Share Posted January 30, 2016 Nuke plant off in the distance. Nice calm lake. Cool pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 How often do you see this...Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 The (hopefully) new pattern starting at the end of this week needs to produce. BUF is siting at about 27" for the season - need to double that just to avoid a top 10 least snowiest winter: http://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10#Annual The northeast end of L. Erie was wide open as of yesterday, and the inner harbor only had about 50% ice cover. Nevertheless, still a wintery appeal in downtown BUF last night around the ice rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 I'll have more pictures in the coming days on my WNY journey Was awesome to meet you and Andrew yesterday. Hope you had a good time at Duffs, look forward to the pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 How often do you see this...Haha gfs_pr6_slp_t850_syracuse_43.png Yeah, I'm not sure about one. I like Eastern NY for synoptic/LES activity within the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 The (hopefully) new pattern starting at the end of this week needs to produce. BUF is siting at about 27" for the season - need to double that just to avoid a top 10 least snowiest winter: http://www.weather.gov/buf/BUF_top10#Annual The northeast end of L. Erie was wide open as of yesterday, and the inner harbor only had about 50% ice cover. Nevertheless, still a wintery appeal in downtown BUF last night around the ice rink. IMG_0488.jpg IMG_0492.jpg Awesome pics Bumble! I'm not as high on the LES as I was earlier this week. I think there is going to be quite a bit of dry air and with each run there is less and less cold. There is definitely opportunity there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2016 Author Share Posted January 31, 2016 There are quite a few signals for a large synoptic event around the 8-11th timeframe as well somewhere in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 31, 2016 Share Posted January 31, 2016 Yeah not to impressive at all with regards to the lake effect potential in the 5-10 day period, still early so there's hope but like BuffaloWeather said each run is looking less and less conducive for any significant lake effect and I agree that the best synoptic potential over the next 1-2 weeks will be over eastern areas. After 2 weeks I believe the pattern returns to the warmth that most of this winter has featured. Think we may have a sneaky late season snowstorm that gets BUF to near 50" but I think between now and the end of March/early April, BUF struggles to reach 40". A dud of a season for sure, but that's definitely to be expected after the last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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