tim Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 ...we all love the weather ...BUT this is one weather event i don't want...rooting hard for the EURO to be right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It is separated/cut off from the flow , it is alone waiting for a hook up. Don , it is amazing that this would be pulled out by the weaker trough to the east like the ( Euro UKIE GFS ) now all see . It would be an amazing win for the Euro . And DT ( cough , cough ) . The stronger NEG tilted trough coming into the SE misses this on the guidance and just can`t tug it west fast enough before the tug east . I agree. It will certainly be a big win for the Euro if it plays out. I'm still not fully sold on that idea, but the probability has increased overnight, especially with the GFS moving toward it. I hope this outcome doesn't lead to renewed criticism of the GFS. The ECMWF continues to have the highest verification scores, on average, but that doesn't mean it will always have the best solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Breezy down here folks Amazing riptide the last few days.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Most of the individual Euro ensemble members are ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Even without a direct hit there will be tremendous coastal effects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just to quickly wrap up the 00z and 06z runs 06z HWRF - NC landfall 06z GFDL - VA landfall 00z ECMWF - OTS 06z GFS - OTS 00z GFS - Close to a NJ landfall, then OTS 00z/06z - NAVGEM - SC landfall 00z - JMA - Only runs to hr 72. 00z GEFS mean - NC landfall 06z GEFS mean - Split between NC and OTS 06z NAM - NC landfall 00z EPS mean - Near Bermuda and then OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I agree. It will certainly be a big win for the Euro if it plays out. I'm still not fully sold on that idea, but the probability has increased overnight, especially with the GFS moving toward it. I hope this outcome doesn't lead to renewed criticism of the GFS. The ECMWF continues to have the highest verification scores, on average, but that doesn't mean it will always have the best solution. What amazes me (and I'm making an assumption here that the Euro is right or close to it) that it is superior to models designed to track hurricanes (The hurricane models like the GDFL etc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just to quickly wrap up the 00z and 06z runs 06z HWRF - NC landfall 06z GFDL - VA landfall 00z ECMWF - OTS 06z GFS - OTS 00z GFS - Close to a NJ landfall, then OTS 00z/06z - NAVGEM - SC landfall 00z - JMA - Only runs to hr 72. 00z GEFS mean - NC landfall 06z GEFS mean - Split between NC and OTS 06z NAM - NC landfall 00z EPS mean - Near Bermuda and then OTS Thanks for this summary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 It's amazing. When the Euro didn't flip at 12z yesterday, I had a feeling that the other models would start to move to its solution. Not over yet, but looks like Euro has the right idea. When the storm went much further SW (and delayed a move north), plus the monster intensity of the storm everything changed. did you have the same feeling in the blizzard when the Euro didn't flip to showing the blizzard missing us to the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just looking at the 11z and 12z storm plot, made a pretty big move. Though now there's more of a westerly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 there's more heading east but still mixed bag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just to quickly wrap up the 00z and 06z runs 06z HWRF - NC landfall 06z GFDL - VA landfall 00z ECMWF - OTS 06z GFS - OTS 00z GFS - Close to a NJ landfall, then OTS 00z/06z - NAVGEM - SC landfall 00z - JMA - Only runs to hr 72. 00z GEFS mean - NC landfall 06z GEFS mean - Split between NC and OTS 06z NAM - NC landfall 00z EPS mean - Near Bermuda and then OTS Unorthodox, but the RGEM and GGEM both indicate NC landfall as well. Tropical forecasting is notoriously fickle and I believe too many of us are treating this like a typical Noreaster. Any wobble in track can impact the synoptic outcome quite a bit here. Look at the current spread on the GFS Ensemble package out to 60 hours. It's over a 250 mile spread. Could you imagine what kind of curses we'd be throwing the models way with that kind of spread if we were tracking a snowstorm at this range? Moral of the story: It's not over yet, even if the likely outcome is OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 did you have the same feeling in the blizzard when the Euro didn't flip to showing the blizzard missing us to the east? Nope. I bought into it lock stock and barrel. But on that end, it only missed by 75-100 miles. Granted NYC was in that cone so it was a bigger deal. In this case with Joaquim, it's thousands of miles and landfall versus a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 there's more heading east but still mixed bag That's the outdated 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Here are the new 12z tracks. As disappointing as this may be for some, while others rejoice that live near the ocean, a consensus is starting to build for a close but no cigar scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 did you have the same feeling in the blizzard when the Euro didn't flip to showing the blizzard missing us to the east? It's really not the same kind of situation. The January storm was a heartbreaking bust for folks on the western fringe, but the Euro missed by all of a hundred miles. If that shifting edge had been in central Pennsylvania, very few people would have taken notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Interesting to see how at 2am they were clustered to hit cape cod area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Here are the new 12z tracks. As disappointing as this may be for some, while others rejoice that live near the ocean, a consensus is starting to build for a close but no cigar scenario. Insurance companies exhale too. This would be a 25 billion dollar storm easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Bermuda isn't OuT of the wood should this keep going east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 My general thought process that I outlined yesterday still stands for the most part. The 00z ECMWF came very close to a 00z GFS esque solution. The main reason for this sudden Eastward shift in my opinion is the trend to weaken the ULL energy over the SE US. Watch as the system gets tugged NW here from the previous image to hour 120 Instead of being pinwheeled in like the 00z GFS did, the ULL weakens and the system is permitted to escape OTS. This entire setup was based on an anomalously deep, negatively tilted trough, that eventually lifted North. That is all but gone now. No negative tilt and no real mechanism to draw it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Two days ago the models were clustered to hit NJ. Then yesterday they were clustered to hit NC. Now they are clustered to go OTS. I think we need some consistency from the models before any of us celebrate/panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just to clarify this isn't a fish storm. A fish storm doesn't effect anyone but "fish" hence the term or shipping interests of course. The central Bahamas are currently ground zero for a major hurricane with major damage likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Just to clarify this isn't a fish storm. A fish storm doesn't effect anyone but "fish" hence the term or shipping interests of course. The central Bahamas are currently ground zero for a major hurricane with major damage likely. Yeah and either way this is going to affect our area, at least the outer bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 There are obviously still a few EPS members that have a deep enough negatively trough that would be capable of drawing Joaquin NW as evidenced by this panel on the mean. The problem, at least regarding impacts to our region, is that much like the case is during Winter, we need to thread the needle. If the trough goes negative too quickly then Joaquin will likely get drawn into the SC or NC coast. Too late or with not enough tilt and Joaquin heads OTS. We need perfect timing and the 00z GFS gave us that. A delayed but not denied capture. It may just come down to the fact that we need too much to go right in order to get the desired solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Two days ago the models were clustered to hit NJ. Then yesterday they were clustered to hit NC. Now they are clustered to go OTS. I think we need some consistency from the models before any of us celebrate/panic. Euro has been out to sea for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Yesterday when the models had the PRE pinwheeling past us and nailing the mid-atlantic it was a sign of the more negatively tilted trough causing the front to retrograde well inland. Now most of the modeling keeps that South of us or just offshore, likely a result of the less negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro has been out to sea for days. It's hard to ignore the consistency of the Euro, and then to see most of the other guidance make a giant leap towards it last night certainly raises an eyebrow. This wouldn't be the first time models over corrected either. We still have to take into account all of the moving parts and how small adjustments in the pipeline can have large consequences. For one, the globals and have been underestimating the intensity of Joaquin since the beginning. We are unsure what effect that ultimately has. The GFDL and HWRF still both show East coast landfalling hurricanes, and both initialized close to the correct surface pressures. I would give those models more weight since we are dealing with a full blown major hurricane. It's not the same as was with Erika, which never really got its act together. I do agree that the Euro and OTS solution definitely has merrit, I am just not willing to put all of my eggs in that basket yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Bother posting SREFs? leaning towards landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 Euro has been out to sea for days. Yep. Euro has been the only one ots for many days. The models are now following it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2015 Share Posted October 1, 2015 I forgot to mention the 00z GGEM, which landfalls the system near OBX and then slides North towards our area. It has good agreement from the 00z GGEM ensemble mean. We have a trend developing where the more reliable models are misses and the less reliable show a hit. Attempting to track and forecast this system has been a very humbling experience, scientifically speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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