Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just got put under a flash flood warning. AT 940 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING DUE TO PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MORE BANDS OF RAIN APPROACH THE AREA. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF NUMEROUS STREAMS AND CREEKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Just got put under a flash flood warning. AT 940 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING DUE TO PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS MORE BANDS OF RAIN APPROACH THE AREA. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF NUMEROUS STREAMS AND CREEKS. That ESE flow just keeps coming and ramming into the mountains, doesn't look good for next 24 hours at least. I have a small lull at the moment, but have 0.50 since 7 am in gauge and more is definitely on the way from look of radar. MUCH heavier to the south of me towards you. Radar est of 6+" in the mountains just southwest of Roanoke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 ^P007 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 That ESE flow just keeps coming and ramming into the mountains, doesn't look good for next 24 hours at least. I have a small lull at the moment, but have 0.50 since 7 am in gauge and more is definitely on the way from look of radar. MUCH heavier to the south of me towards you. Radar est of 6+" in the mountains just southwest of Roanoke! Already numerous reports of roads flooding and mudslides -- Looks to get worse before it gets any better down this way. (I'm right in the center of the warning polygon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 It's at the end of the run, but the 09z SREF mean is pretty wet for DC region from hr 78 on till hr 87 (when the run ends) ETA: Some of the individual members look pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Thru h36 (the front) the NAM is an inch or less for the metro areas. Now to see if it keeps up with the idea of the deluge later on in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Any chance those flash flood watches get extended to the metro area? Better chance that than of them verifying here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 FWIW, 12z 4km is a quick soaker for the DC region tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I think there's a G-IV mission scheduled to depart at 18z today so hopefully the models tonight will give us some better looks into the potential outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Still a few members trying to bring it closer to DC / Baltimore...but the preponderance of guidance shows landfall too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0530NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1016 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIACONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELYVALID 291415Z - 291915ZSUMMARY...A TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATERWILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THISAFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW ONE AREA OF SHOWERS ANDEMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING WEST OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NC ANDSOUTHWEST VA. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST GA HAS AN AREAOF STEADY RAINFALL WITH IT. THIS REGION HAS BEEN VERY WET THE PASTSEVERAL DAYS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VA HAVE RECEIVED 2-6" OFRAIN ALREADY THIS MORNING. THIS RAINFALL HAS SATURATED THE GROUNDAND THUS MADE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING MORE PROBABLE WITH ANYADDITIONAL RAINFALL.FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE IN GA AND A GENERALLY DIVERGENT PATTERNALOFT IS HELPING FORCE ASCENT ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH 20-30 KTSOF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AIDING IN LIFT. LAYERED PRECIPITABLEWATER PRODUCTS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE COMBINATION OF FACTORSCONTRIBUTING TO THE NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSSTHIS REGION. A CONNECTION TO THE PACIFIC AND TROPICAL STORM MARTYCAN BE SEEN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...WITH A DEEP LAYER CONNECTIONTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALSO TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN IN THEATLANTIC. THIS IS ALL RESULTING IN A VERY EFFICIENT ATMOSPHERE FORHEAVY RAIN RATES. THE ONE THING LACKING IS INSTABILITY...BUT ATLEAST SOME DOES EXIST ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED BY SOME LIGHTNINGAND COLDER CLOUD TOPS.AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEAST...EXPECT THE LOW LEVELUPSLOPE FLOW TO DECREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST NC AND FAR SOUTHWEST VA.THIS COMBINED WITH AN ERODING OF INSTABILITY SHOULD EVENTUALLYLEAD TO A DECREASE IN RATES BY LATER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER STILLWILL HAVE THE RAINFALL FROM THE UPEPR LOW TO DEAL WITH INTO THEAFTERNOON...WHICH MAY STILL HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS TO IT.THIS COMBINED WITH THE SATURATED GROUND WILL CONTINUE THEFLOOD/FLASH FLOOD RISK.THE BIGGER THREAT LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILLMOVE NORTH INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST VA. THIS IS WHERE THESTRONGEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FOCUS...WITH THE BANDS OF LOCALLYHEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN VA LIKELY SHIFTING INTO THISREGION. THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A DECENTHANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION AND SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL 1-3"...WITHLOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH 20Z ACROSS THIS REGION.CHENARDATTN...WFO...GSP...LWX...MRX...RLX...RNK...ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...LAT...LON 38957892 38637854 38067851 37467878 3699791236547948 36278026 36298050 36278206 3667816137328121 38358015 38907954 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Regarding that WPC mesoscale precip discussion, the last bunch of HRRR runs have been extremely wet for the higher terrain to our west and southwest later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Around h48 or so the NAM just starts pulling in lots of moisture and we get the deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Guidance on Joaquin is all over the place. Don't think we'll know much for another day or two. By then it'll be getting its act together...or not.. NHC did mention slower progress and the track has it further south at Day 5 than previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Late on the NAM, but at the end of the run we get pounded with rain ETA: Joaquin is closing on the Wilmington to OBX area at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 My point and click went from a range of 0.50 - 0.75" for the overnight to now being 1 - 2". That would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 The F84 500 mb pattern on the NAM is money if you want Joaquin to turn more towards the NNW and make a landfall further south. Late on the NAM, but at the end of the run we get pounded with rain ETA: Joaquin is closing on the Wilmington to OBX area at hr 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 I'm gonna hug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Here's another hugable model for you Ian (48 hr 12z RGEM SLP map) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Joaquin would be more interesting if it hit Phoenix And a River would run through the city... http://instantrimshot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Here's another hugable model for you Ian (48 hr 12z RGEM SLP map) 12zRGEM48hrsSLPchart.gif I'm going to guess the 12z Euro spits out something fun again today. It fits how it's worked in the past at least. If we can get the sys west of 75 I think it'll probably be toug to keep it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Could be an interesting Eagles/Skins game...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Regarding this evening, both the NAM nest and a bunch of recent HRRR runs bring a nice slug of rain through the entire area from southwest to northeast. I'm tossing the light NAM, assuming that the convective scheme is initiating way too early today and incorrectly wiping out the environment later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 12z GFS likes a pretty rainy Thursday into Friday for the I-95 corridor (2"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Lol JBastardi's map shows a cat 1 making a run for the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GFS is west a bit. Big rain DC and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 GFS is west a bit. Big rain DC and east. 3" at hr 72 and still pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 Lol JBastardi's map shows a cat 1 making a run for the bay Seems bullish intensity wise but the track might not be too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 3" at hr 72 and still pouring 5"+ at 84... this is just getting silly at hr 87 and 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 29, 2015 Share Posted September 29, 2015 3" at hr 72 and still pouring It's gonna be YUGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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