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October, at the moment peering forward, a wild stormy affair?


Typhoon Tip

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october snows in the coastal plain are usually followed by warm winters with little snow

Based on like what, a couple years worth of data.

 

I think he is kidding.

 

The sampling I am aware of includes 1952 (or 1951, I forget), 1972, 1979 and 2011. Very different ENSO states, same blah results.

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GOA low with zonal flow in the LR GFS. OCT fail?

The cold and BN that the models and ENS were showing have vanished. Tropics having a say and the super hard raging Nino also with a part. This is the second time already cold shots have disappeared..I'd venture to say we are going to see a lot of that the next few months. People get excited for big changes on models and ......

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The cold and BN that the models and ENS were showing have vanished. Tropics having a say and the super hard raging Nino also with a part. This is the second time already cold shots have disappeared..I'd venture to say we are going to see a lot of that the next few months. People get excited for big changes on models and ......

 

This means nothing ... 

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The cold and BN that the models and ENS were showing have vanished. Tropics having a say and the super hard raging Nino also with a part. This is the second time already cold shots have disappeared..I'd venture to say we are going to see a lot of that the next few months. People get excited for big changes on models and ......

 

I don`t see a change here , the ensembles pulled the trough back in the EP  starting around the 8 th , this was the day 10- 15 day mean  4 days ago , which showed the NEG in the GOA  and the ridge pulled onto the west of HB .

The trough reflection usually gets washed out on the  EC in the LR ,  but you can there is nothing but trough in the east . The depth usually gets seen as you get closer . The medium rage 6 -10 sees the trough  better  in the east 

 

Also below is the 6z 5 days mean which starts around the 8th ( again , no change ) in the LR . If you pull that ridge to the west of HB this winter like the Euro seasonal says , the basin wide NINO will just make you wet . the D/L tropical forcing will keep any SE ridge away .

The seasonal models are showing you this kind of winter look . NEG in the GOA  + PNA ridge on the west shores of HB and a trough in the means in the SE ..

 

If this what your winter 500 mb pattern morphs,  just colder relative to averages the further SE one goes but wet and no ridge   , I think it`s workable  for both of us  .

gfs-ens_T2ma5d_namer_2.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_sd5d_namer_2.png

gfs-ens_z500a_sd5d_namer_3.png

 

gfs-ens_z500a5d_namer_3.png

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We may yo-yo at times but I don't see signals for a torch month. Perhaps it's a little AN, but the overall pattern through months end does not scream torch to me.

 

Looks (at the moment) to be fairly banal/average - agreed.

 

To be fair, I was thinking I should update this ...  The original signal for cooler and stormy, as set out at thread start, has collapsed.  Par for the course in Autumn.  There's obviously less predictive skill using these tools, because although they are built by the weight of many ensembles... the inherent variability that is enhanced during season change even effects all that weight. 

 

Once we get deeper into winter ... R-waves lengthen and mass-fields grow, and then they become harder to move (so to speak), and the teleconnector outlooks then benefit from that immovability by becoming more stable.. .Such that a -PNA or +PNA has a better chance of happening. 

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Full on noreaster with moderate to heavy windswept rains . 

 

Ha, true - 

 

but, this event is not substantially rooted in the idea of more broadly expression negative anomalies and an obvious NW flow through western Canada.  I.e., coincidence - 

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oh, god - can't believe I'm about to say this, but  :facepalm:  ...if this were a couple months from now, we'd be talking a BIG snow event for a lot of the area, physically driven to reality by almost purely deep layer easterlies into a -1 or so SD air mass ... 

 

I hate the fantasy blather, but  in this case ...whether snow or rain aside, it's a nice educator on getting it done with less cyclogenesis.  

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oh, god - can't believe I'm about to say this, but :facepalm: ...if this were a couple months from now, we'd be talking a BIG snow event for a lot of the area, physically driven to reality by almost purely deep layer easterlies into a -1 or so SD air mass ...

I hate the fantasy blather, but in this case ...whether snow or rain aside, it's a nice educator on getting it done with less cyclogenesis.

And yet another thread goes to wishful snow thinking...

:weenie:

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And yet another thread goes to wishful snow thinking...

:weenie:

 

Yeah yeah yeah     :D

 

The vagarious nature of autumn teleconnector modes and modalities continues... 

 

The overnight derivatives (EOFs) from both American agencies (CPC/CDC) are abruptly casting very coherent ensemble signal for a strong positive PNA to take place, two distinct pulses spanning two weeks.  

 

Interestingly, there has been occasional TC activity modeled in operational tools, to erupt out W of the Date Line...between Fiji and ...the abyss, that then lift smartly into the parabolic delivery into the polar westerlies. They are not there in every cycle's extended visions..sometimes more or less over the last several days, but it is hard to know what is the 'chicken and egg' there; is the TC contributing, are is the pattern supporting their genesis.  In any event, such is highly correlated with the AA phase of the NP ...which is also the polarward phase state of the +PNA.  Circular logic is good -- it means the system is well supported.

 

In English ...?   Should indicate a NW flow downstream of all that noise, into western Canada.  This was more than less also promoted prior to the thread start, too, ...but seems to have wavered some in it's coherence wrt the Pac teleconnector -- if perhaps merely back now in more clarity at this time? 

 

Still no guarantee it will, but ...the particular reemergence of the signal is stronger this time, showing remarkably well clustered prognostics ... particularly at the CPC.   Get load of this (last night's) CPC outlook, and note that every single member contributing to these curves, are behaving the same way; simply a matter of extremeness within, but all showing ~ 2 or more total SD rise... 

 

post-904-0-36843300-1443888617_thumb.jpg

 

The point of this update is not to predict a specific event, but that if cooling the continent were ever a part of the autumn description? ...this layout would certainly parlay well into that expectation. 

 

The NAO is as usual off in its own world .. .but may not be necessary for directive chill if the dominating Pac-N/A relay is as coherent ...or shall we say, REMAINS this coherent and actually verifies

 

Getting the bold and underlined is a big piece of the puzzle, no doubt... But so long as these multiple channel indicators are all on board, I got to think that it is getting late in the solar year such pattern and dimming --> cold should win at some point.   

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The Arctic Oscillation tanks from now until about the 14th of OCT, I think we will see colder than normal temps across the NE and GL with the PNA rising to above normal heights I think we get a sizable wind driven nor'easter.  Models are beginning to show signs of a nor'easter or strong wind driven event in the next 5-10 days.

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Hey Scott do you guys up at WSI look at GLAMM data?

The site I normally used decided to go cryptic and it's hard to find. It's government provided, so I wouldn't think it's gone privatized but who knows -

Mike V redesigned it since that for rid of it on ESRL. Not sure why they discontinued it .

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