Damage In Tolland Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 JC CT well since I was one for the few mets up and down the east coast that insisted that Joaquin would NOT hit the east coast No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 I know I've seen some talk wondering if Nuri screwed with things some last year. Well, there's a chance we may have a similar situation fairly soon with recurving Typhoon Champi. Pretty much all models are taking the former typhoon below 950 mb, and there are a few that take it below 920 mb. This is still 5-6 days out or so, so it could be something to keep an eye on. I don't think a similar thing occurring on say 10/28 would have the same effect as one occurring on 11/10-11/15 as that did. In the period from 10/30-12/15 5-10 days is exponential as far as seasonal impact or effect. The atmosphere is much closer to being locked in or semi getting ready to be locked into a winter pattern on 11/15 than it even is on 11/1. I still think that the reason last winter largely sucked in the first half was either a La Nina lag in the atmosphere or the active sun during the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 21, 2015 Share Posted October 21, 2015 Last night's euro shows an impressive (ugly) warm up through the heart of Siberia days 6-10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 look at the date its OCT 31 the month is over Last night's euro shows an impressive (ugly) warm up through the heart of Siberia days 6-10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 look at the date its OCT 31 the month is over Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the idea that the snow sticks around in November? If a lot of it melts at the end of October/beginning of November, the Siberian high won't strengthen as much from less snow-induced cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 22, 2015 Share Posted October 22, 2015 That is what happened last season. Final few days of the month were skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2015 Author Share Posted October 22, 2015 That is what happened last season. Final few days of the month were skunked. And I think you and I will take a repeat of last winter won't you say?...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 And I think you and I will take a repeat of last winter won't you say?...lol.LOL I wasn't insinuating anything...just a comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Did some hunting....according to this source, of the seasons since 1998, we lag only 2002 and last season in terms of the SAI right now: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2015-16-forecast-uk.php Nothing on the OPI yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 as of week 42 OCT 13-19 RUTGERS has snow for NORTHERN HEMISPHERE = 21.04 milion square KM and SIBERIA/ Eurasia at 12.25 million square KM ... similar to week 42 in 2012 and week 42 in 2004 their data goes back to 1966 = 49 years of those 49 years as of week 42 only 8 years had MORE snow in Both of these areas another 9 years at week 42 had SIMILAR snowfall amounts in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia so in other words as of week 42 in OCT 2015 the snow cover places 18th best out of 49 http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2015&ui_week=42&ui_set=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 as of week 42 OCT 13-19 RUTGERS has snow for NORTHERN HEMISPHERE = 21.04 milion square KM and SIBERIA/ Eurasia at 12.25 million square KM ... similar to week 42 in 2012 and week 42 in 2004 their data goes back to 1966 = 49 years of those 49 years as of week 42 only 8 years had MORE snow in Both of these areas another 9 years at week 42 had SIMILAR snowfall amounts in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia so in other words as of week 42 in OCT 2015 the snow cover places 18th best out of 49 http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_vis.php?ui_year=2015&ui_week=42&ui_set=0 All of the years that had "similar" snow [cover extent] in [North America] and Siberia/Eurasia actually had more than this year, putting this year at 18th place? Or would this year would be in an approximate 10-way tie for 9th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 25, 2015 Share Posted October 25, 2015 All of the years that had "similar" snow [cover extent] in [North America] and Siberia/Eurasia actually had more than this year, putting this year at 18th place? Or would this year would be in an approximate 10-way tie for 9th?Sizable uptic in Eurasian snow cover below 60 yesterday would imply were good shape thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 yes the GFS / EURO do shwo this big ridge over central SIBERIA in the last few days of the month as you can see... but the MIN MAX TEMPS do go above 32 at all and the snow cover is NOT impacted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 FINAL SNOW COVER ** FORECAST ** BASED ON 10/26 13KM GFS FORECAST black line = 60 N latitude line not 2014-15 or 2013-14 but NOT to shabby abby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The high temperature forecast you showed is for November 11th. And the snowcover you're showing is for November 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Update today from AER, fwiw... SummaryThe AO is currently negative and is predicted to trend strongly positive the rest of the week and into early next week and remain positive through mid-November. The strong turn to positive AO conditions is reflective of the model forecast of low pressure/geopotential heights consolidating over the Arctic while high pressure/geopotential heights dominate the mid-latitudes. With strong positive AO conditions and low/geopotential heights entrenched across the Arctic, the weather pattern should be relatively mild across the Northern Hemisphere continents including Northern Europe, the Eastern United States and East Asia. Below normal temperatures are likely in regions that experience cool temperatures during positive AO regimes, western North America and southwest Asia. Longer term we continue to favor a negative bias to the AO. Though not as rapid as the past two Octobers, Siberian snow cover has advanced this month at an above normal rate. Arctic sea ice extent remains below normal especially int eh Barents-Kara seas. We continue to anticipate atmospheric blocking, which favors troposphere-stratosphere coupling due to increased energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere (though the current pattern is admittedly not favorable). All three factors favor a negative winter AO. https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The high temperature forecast you showed is for November 11th. And the snowcover you're showing is for November 6th. And the ..min temps 10/30... looks like it's from 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 LOOK AGAIN The high temperature forecast you showed is for November 11th. And the snowcover you're showing is for November 6th. The high temperature forecast you showed is for November 11th. And the snowcover you're showing is for November 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 according to this week 43 came in at 14.10 million sq KM which is 16th best out last 49 years ( that is as far back as the data goes) Right now there is HUGE Low over eastern Siberia so OCT 2015 may finish strong unlike last year when OCT 2014 fell off at the end somewhat other years with simialr Numbers at week 43 are oct 2010 2006 1995 1970 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The climo departure on Rutgers snowlab right now, shows a nice parabolic shape of + departures for snow from western/northwestern Russia, right through extreme NE China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The climo departure on Rutgers snowlab right now, shows a nice parabolic shape of + departures for snow from western/northwestern Russia, right through extreme NE China. Big gains yesterday in southern Siberia and adjacent Mongolia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The climo departure on Rutgers snowlab right now, shows a nice parabolic shape of + departures for snow from western/northwestern Russia, right through extreme NE China. Oct 26, 2015....then same date in 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Looks better in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Anyone know what happened to our good friend who was posting the SAI slopes the last couple of years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Anyone know what happened to our good friend who was posting the SAI slopes the last couple of years? He's on vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Good increase yesterday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 So far so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Hopefully we can crack the top 10....a meek signal complicates matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Hopefully we can crack the top 10....a meek signal complicates matters. We should close out the month relatively strong. Regardless, a top 15 or 20 finish isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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