Ralph Wiggum Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 12z gfs reminds me of a wintertime coastal low following the baroclinic zone right along the coast. Interesting. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 See if she can fight back tonight. Really thought the shear would have kicked the doors in by now. If it comes out alive by this time tommorow and misses Hispanola then it's game time imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 See if she can fight back tonight. Really thought the shear would have kicked the doors in by now. If it comes out alive by this time tommorow and misses Hispanola then it's game time imo. Shear is finally weakening. If it can pull north right now, it will have a chance. outflow on all quadrants, strengthening taking place now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Shear is finally weakening. If it can pull north right now, it will have a chance. outflow on all quadrants, strengthening taking place now. I agree. Center avoiding Hispanolia interaction absolutely critical. If she does, game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Erika is about as vertically stacked as I am after drinking a bottle Jager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I get that the Space Coast is the area around Cape Canaveral. What constitutes the Treasure Coast of Florida? Its in reference to the stretch of coast that treasure has been found due to a fleet of Spanish treasure ships that foundered off that stretch of coast in 1715. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Water temps are krispy kreme hot and now. There is more fuel at the ready than she could ever need. If Erika slips past the island with any kind of a LLC intact, well....you know. Is there any realistic chance this storm takes the southern route and slips in the gulf? As it slows down with blocking up top, i think the worst case scenario would be she drifts across fl and into the gulf where she has 2-4 days to explode before a landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Enjoy the porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Her center is moving NNW now a bit and the storms firing are more collocated with the LLC so these are good signs that the shear is backing off a bit, what is sad is the current look is actually decent for her and would normally be considered a system on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Its in reference to the stretch of coast that treasure has been found due to a fleet of Spanish treasure ships that foundered off that stretch of coast in 1715. Her center is moving NNW now a bit and the storms firing are more collocated with the LLC so these are good signs that the shear is backing off a bit, what is sad is the current look is actually decent for her and would normally be considered a system on life support. She's a ragged looking girl for sure. But what a bombshell she might become if she can miss the DR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Appears to be going due N now. Sure is a tight little thing at the surface. Of course, is that the actual center still, or could there be another one closer to the main area of convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Look at latest few frames. circulation clearly jogging north and maybe even northeast almost under that blow up of cold cloud tops! i am not sure of the correct way to post links or images so i will just pay it safe and let u guys do it yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I could be wrong but I believe that GTFI is showing a cat 5 near OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The tracks are all over the place now. One run they go east, the next they go back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 And they'll all be wrong if there's a new center of circulation and they initiated poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 To the folks in the SC/NC I suggest really not worrying about the models until Sunday, if there is a 3 day plot on or near the coast then we can get all in a tizzy.....until then its fun to watch the models but dont take any direct hits here as anything concrete..... Today she is having a MUCH better day than she had yesterday and the LLC has moved north the last few hrs and it will be typical if it does end up going east of or just barely over the eastern end of PR....when earlier today it was looking west of PR and maybe even over Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 The " cone" looks like the NC/SC people need to just keep it in the back of their mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Wow. Things are certainly looking like they could get hairy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 I could be wrong but I believe that GTFI is showing a cat 5 near OBX. Fun to look at. Believe that would set a record for farthest north cat 5 verbatim. Obviously just model porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Man all these runs got me excited. I know ill regret it later on tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Call me crazy or whatever, but this thing is starting to look better. It's looking a bit more organized to my untrained eyes haha. It looks like the center has taken a wobble to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Man all these runs got me excited. I know ill regret it later on tho... RIP Waycross, GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015 The center has been wobbling during the day, but the mean motion is estimated to be 285/13. In the mean, a west-northwestward track to the south of a subtropical ridge is likely to continue for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn to the right along the southwestern and western periphery of the ridge. There remains considerable spread in the track model guidance at days 3 to 5, partly due to differences in model-predicted intensities at those time frames. The official track forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical models with a better depiction of the storm's environment. These data will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS. Vertical shear is expected to be fairly strong for the next couple of days and that, along with the interaction with land, should preclude significant strengthening for the next 48 hours or so. Beyond that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat, and this could allow for intensification assuming that the cyclone is not too disrupted by the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola. Because of the marginal upper-level wind environment and potential interaction with land over the next few days, there is unusually high uncertainty in the forecast intensity, especially at days 3 to 5. The biggest short-term threat posed by Erika is very heavy rainfall over portions of the Leeward Islands, which should spread over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and early Friday. These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides. More than 12 inches of rain has fallen in Dominica, with reports of fatalities in that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.6N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.9N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 19.2N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 20.7N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 22.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 24.9N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 29.5N 80.5W 75 KT 85 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Man all these runs got me excited. I know ill regret it later on tho... This is nearly spot on to what they are showing on the Weather Channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 New track keeps it below PR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 New track keeps it below PR... And aimed right at me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 New track keeps it below PR... cutting it real close with that track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 Loop of Erika. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 27, 2015 Share Posted August 27, 2015 New track keeps it below PR... Crazy how much it has moved from west to east and back west the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.