packbacker Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 For reference...Euro Seasonal freebie maps. The Euro Seasonal has been to warm the past couple of winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 For reference...Euro Seasonal freebie maps. The Euro Seasonal has been to warm the past couple of winters... Fla looks nice .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 CFS is pretty awful. I wouldn't put much trust into it. Go with the Euro seasonal, or JAMSTEC or the SST CA. SST CA makes the most sense this far out but there isn't a lot of great analogs when comparing the SST's though with how warm things are now. 97 had similar east pac but the enso regions were much different as was the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 SST CA makes the most sense this far out but there isn't a lot of great analogs when comparing the SST's though with how warm things are now. 97 had similar east pac but the enso regions were much different as was the atlantic. Based on the Euro weeklies and even today's EPS, those warm anomalies in the GOA are going to take a beating as we go through the next month or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 15, 2015 Share Posted September 15, 2015 Based on the Euro weeklies and even today's EPS, those warm anomalies in the GOA are going to take a beating as we go through the next month or so. They will, just like last year, but hard to imagine they completely flipping or diminishing enough to not affect the winter pattern. But we will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Looking forward to winter, I would really like to experience more cold air damming. it is amazing how special and rare it is to us. unfortunately, my pictures wont upload but there is only 8 other places in the world with CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 JAMSTEC has updated. Looks like lots of precip and colder than normal temps for you all in the SE. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 JAMSTEC has updated. Looks like lots of precip and colder than normal temps for you all in the SE. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html Man it looks like most of the US, western Europe, and Argentina are the only cool locations in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Are we cancelling winter yet or is it going to be historic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Are we cancelling winter yet or is it going to be historic? I'm waiting to see if there's a Halloween storm before I make my call.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I'm waiting to see if there's a Halloween storm before I make my call.... That was a great ULL. Best snow all year I believe IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 I'm not really going with any modeling. I like the idea of an El Nino during Winter for the Southeast as a whole. More storm chances bring more chances for them to meet up with the cold air vs less storms. Looking forward to the upcoming Winter season. Down my way, may have to wait until Mid Jan-Late Feb though. If I were a betting man, I'd suggest there will be quite a few Winter storm chances this year. Some for many of us who are used to being right on the "outside" looking in. I surely learned to not put too much into pre-season forecasts and analogs after last year. Just the overall El Nino is good enough for me. Here's hoping that y'all will get one like you did in February 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 16, 2015 Share Posted September 16, 2015 Based on the Euro weeklies and even today's EPS, those warm anomalies in the GOA are going to take a beating as we go through the next month or so. On the west side, definitely. Same thing occurred last fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Mosquito fest next spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Mosquito fest next spring... They will have to dig out from under the 5' deep snow pack first! I'm an optimist! Two weeks away from Rock-tober when the fun begins. Time to clean out the burn barrels and load up on the whiskey. I hear the arctic circle will be shifting to north carolina this winter......mosqitoes be damned! First frost in the triad is just over 4 weeks away (avg). I think we can beat that this year. But please no more Halloween snow. That screws up everything and doesnt give the clouds enough time to heal before December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 17, 2015 Share Posted September 17, 2015 Current northern hemisphere snow cover not looking great at this time. http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_alaska.gif But it does look to pick up the next couple of weeks http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20150917%2012%20UTC¶m=1000_500_thick&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model hit the 16 day loop Edit: never mind I can't get the model loop to work as an input Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Weather Channel outlook....probably formulated by WSI mets for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Mosquito fest next spring... that's an incredibly sharp cutoff between Birmingham and memphis. East TN wet, West TN dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 don't let SWL see that. He may have a heart attack. It's TWC - so take it with more than a grain of salt - BUT - they are calling for a warm Oct and Nov, which if that were to happen is usually good (i.e., a warm fall) for a winter to remember ---------- usually, anyway (we don't need no friggin' H'ween storms .... look back ....) My 2¢ ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 It's TWC - so take it with more than a grain of salt - BUT - they are calling for a warm Oct and Nov, which if that were to happen is usually good (i.e., a warm fall) for a winter to remember ---------- usually, anyway (we don't need no friggin' H'ween storms .... look back ....) My 2¢ ...... well darn. There goes my hopes for a white Thanksgiving. Honestly though, I wouldn't mind a snow in Oct or Nov. I will take them whenever. I really don't like the idea of a warm November. I prefer the holiday season to be on the cool side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 That might be the first national temperature map I've ever seen that doesn't have a single area of "normal". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 That might be the first national temperature map I've ever seen that doesn't have a single area of "normal". Talk about it. Enough of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Weather Channel outlook....probably formulated by WSI mets for the most part With a GOA low already trying to get going I am not so sure Dec will be a torch. We are in a 2nd year Nino ala Fall 53/58/69/77 and those had the GOA low get set up in Sep/Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 With a GOA low already trying to get going I am not so sure Dec will be a torch. We are in a 2nd year Nino ala Fall 53/58/69/77 and those had the GOA low get set up in Sep/Oct. It better move out in time for winter. A GOA in winter is definitely no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 It better move out in time for winter. A GOA in winter is definitely no bueno.It's a staple of winter now, just like a +NAO! Sad but true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 It better move out in time for winter. A GOA in winter is definitely no bueno. It will shift west in Dec...I think/hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 HM sounds pretty pessimistic for his region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 HM sounds pretty pessimistic for his region. I didn't see that, what did he say? The MA/NE folks are on quite a run so no matter what kind of setup happens this winter they will get theres, they always do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I didn't see that, what did he say? The MA/NE folks are on quite a run so no matter what kind of setup happens this winter they will get theres, they always do....Maybe the MA and NE will be too far N for a change! That would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Maybe the MA and NE will be too far N for a change! That would be awesome! Ummm....I wouldn't bet on that. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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