mackerel_sky Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Based on what I've seen I'm thinking a warm November, torch for December then a switch by early January. I wouldn't expect much until mid January then we should start having chances and February looks to be the money month similar to recent years.February snow sucks! Longer days and strong sun angle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 February snow sucks! Longer days and strong sun angle! Agree, however I do not think we will be waiting until January for the cold. I'm not sure where he is located but I would find that very unlikely for WNC/Northern Upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Agree, however I do not think we will be waiting until January for the cold. I'm not sure where he is located but I would find that very unlikely for WNC/Northern Upstate. The analogs I've seen suggest a warm November and torch December. The mountains might see some snow when a transient cold shot moves through but otherwise it looks like almost all of us will have to wait until January for legit chances to start happening. Strong El Ninos like this one traditionally have a warm November-December then as they break down switch us to a cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Sure seems like a lot pf positives going for us coming into this winter for snow. I really like this part from the forecast that someone poster from the mets in SC. Justus said it's only a matter of time for the match-up to occur. "With as many storms as we are expecting, it's not a matter of if the cold air will collide with moisture, but rather when," Justus said. We have been very active since September as far as precip goes. And it looks like this will continue with the El Nino in force. The more precip we have, the more chances we have for it to meet with the cold air and get some snow. Sure, we'll probably have a lot of cold rain, but it still means an increased chance of snow, too. It would be nice to have four or five events with at least one big dog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 February snow sucks! Longer days and strong sun angle! I totally agree. If it's going to snow I want it to be December or January. By the time it's February I'm ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 The analogs I've seen suggest a warm November and torch December. The mountains might see some snow when a transient cold shot moves through but otherwise it looks like almost all of us will have to wait until January for legit chances to start happening. Strong El Ninos like this one traditionally have a warm November-December then as they break down switch us to a cold pattern. but we had our only snow of the 97-98 winter in December 97. Isn't this el Nino similar in strength to that one ? Jan and Feb 98 were pretty mild here if I remember correctly. Why will this Jan and Feb be any different ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 6, 2015 Author Share Posted November 6, 2015 There has only been 7 November days since 1950 with AO above +4.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Looking like the first +5 ever inbound! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 The analogs I've seen suggest a warm November and torch December. The mountains might see some snow when a transient cold shot moves through but otherwise it looks like almost all of us will have to wait until January for legit chances to start happening. Strong El Ninos like this one traditionally have a warm November-December then as they break down switch us to a cold pattern. I am not as meteorologically inclined as most on here but I do enjoy looking at trends and analog years, and I'm just not seeing an analog year I like right now. It's unprecedented. Heck, for KAVL our September-November temperatures, and precipitation anomalies are more in line with 09-10 than either than anything I can remember for 82-23 or 97-98. If I am not mistaken, we were just below average to average for our mean October/November temperatures in both 82 and 97, and that definitely isn't the case this year. Just gathering some info, take a look at the similarities going into Fall: As opposed to this: Now compare this to what we're seeing currently, and have been for a month or 2: I don't know what's in store honestly, and we can analyze the data and debate until the cows come home but my gut is simply not telling me that we'll have to wait until January. It would not surprise me one bit to see this thing flip over night, at the beginning of December just like it did in 2009. In talking with people around here about the weather patterns leading up to that winter from the summer drought, to fall rain and temperatures, to a scorching start to November, etc, it's nearly identical. I very well could be wrong but I'm just going with my gut right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 but we had our only snow of the 97-98 winter in December 97. Isn't this el Nino similar in strength to that one ? Jan and Feb 98 were pretty mild here if I remember correctly. Why will this Jan and Feb be any different ? The main years I've used which seem similar and how I expect the pattern to evolve are as follows: 1957-58, 1965-66, 1972-73 1982-83, 1987-88 and then a few similarities of the Nino intensity to 1997-1998. If you plot those years on the maps you'll see an average to slightly warm November with cold centered out west. This is exactly what the GFS and Euro are showing through mid November. Then the analog shows a torch for December with a transition in early January occurring. February could be quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 There has only been 7 November days since 1950 with AO above +4.0 What goes up must come down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 What goes up must come down Sure in 6 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 WxSouth mentions the +PNA and -NAO combo! I'm eyeing a distinct pattern change, something that just might be a catalyst into the first Major Winter type pattern of the upcoming season. Its still far out there, no guarantees. It's very interesting though, and fits how I envisioned this Winter to evolve. Combining tall western ridges (+PNA), Periods of negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO), and an active storm track, with some hints at Pacific Split flow, thanks to El Nino. The process begins in 7 days on all models, with a southern Greenland ridge going up. After day 10, according to GFS model, a tall western ridge goes up.The result--- Here comes the first really cold blast. I'll have the chances of this happening, as well as short term weather postings at my monthly site soon.Wxsouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Yep, the LR GFS has been indicating a pretty sick block forming. Could we see an early entrance to winter this year? If the GFS is right we very well might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Hello 384hr GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Hello 384hr GFS! gfs_z500_mslp_namer_53.png Yeah, I was looking at the emergence of the greenland blocking yesterday (higher heights anyway/ridging). It's on the ensembles too, EURO and GFS. At this point in the season I just count it as noise, especially at such long leads. I'll start actually paying attention to models mid December. Hopefully the same look is there then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Yeah, I was looking at the emergence of the greenland blocking yesterday (higher heights anyway/ridging). It's on the ensembles too, EURO and GFS. At this point in the season I just count it as noise, especially at such long leads. I'll start actually paying attention to models mid December. Hopefully the same look is there then. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 The aletuian ridge and west coast trough gots some staying power on the ensembles. Going to be a long 3-5 weeks waiting for the pattern to change, if it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 There has only been 7 November days since 1950 with AO above +4.0 We better get used to it considering there has never been a SSW with westerly QBO and low solar..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 There has only been 7 November days since 1950 with AO above +4.0 We better get used to it considering there has never been a SSW with westerly QBO and low solar..... What's the correlation to winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Wife had on the Weather Channel/Weather Underground segment while I was fixing dinner tonight, and they did an excellent presentation on the recent CAD events and why we've been socked in with clouds all week. The forecasters said that with the projected el Nino forecast and jet stream pattern, that the CADs will become common this winter, and that the Atlanta area should experience higher than normal ice events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Wife had on the Weather Channel/Weather Underground segment while I was fixing dinner tonight, and they did an excellent presentation on the recent CAD events and why we've been socked in with clouds all week. The forecasters said that with the projected el Nino forecast and jet stream pattern, that the CADs will become common this winter, and that the Atlanta area should experience higher than normal ice events. I only flipped to see the very last part of the segment, when they were discussing how it makes severe wx fall apart and that Birmingham has different weather than Atlanta. But also, North GA almost always gets ice strictly from CAD whereas Birmingham never does so in a sense they are right. And what do you know, right after a wedge is eroded today, 3 days later and we'll be right back in another one, and the coldest one yet. Winter of the wedge? Bring it on! They're fascinating! I love them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 What's the correlation to winter? wet and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 We might see some good storms if we get more storm tracks like the one Sunday and Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 but we had our only snow of the 97-98 winter in December 97. Isn't this el Nino similar in strength to that one ? Jan and Feb 98 were pretty mild here if I remember correctly. Why will this Jan and Feb be any different ? Have you had your head in the sand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 wet and warm ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Things look to be shaping up well with the climate models. CFSv2 4x runs averaged over 30 days (120 model runs runs) on the left, 1-day 4x runs on the right. It's had the Feb pattern for a while now but it looks to be sniffing out December in the latest runs, with a trough undercutting the ridge there. Take a look at the 12z run of the CFSv2 over the south.... and the 6z run.... Here's the 45 day average (with November torch)....There was NO BLUE over the US in the previous several 45 day average runs. Alright with that said it is the CFSv2, so take it with a grain...things change day to day, that's why I like to look at the 7, 14, or 30 day averages of the model. But looking at daily or 3x day averages can "sniff out" pattern changes evolving, sometimes. Now just for fun, here's the latest Beijing Climate Center model ensemble with 30 members, 500mb anomaly centered 11/26/2015-12/05/2015 Yeah , it's not an -AO...but you have a clear Aleutian low which is favored by just about every forecaster and climate model this winter, pacific high and a trough on the east. aaaand the first half of December you see an active flow across the southern US up the east coast I suspect it will get a little prettier in the next few runs, we'll see. Here's a twitter chain that's an interesting take on the Aleutian LP/north pacific LP. Note the recent Nov comment. https://twitter.com/wxmidwest/status/656238905516249088 Anyway, we can't do much but look at the CFS and weird, random climate models (JMA, CanSIPS, NASA, NMME, etc)...pretty soon all we'll be doing is looking at the last frame of the GFS hoping it verifies. BTW, did you notice the 12 and 18z GFS wants to pop a low south of NC with a HP not too far away? I guess we can start watching the last frame of the GFS now. Here's to a great winter for the SE *knocks on wood* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Jon, good post man. Thanks for taking the time to take us through that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Record Siberian snow could bode ill for Northeast USA Today article via WCNC There is a theory about snow in Siberia during the month of October: If there is a lot, it can mean a particularly wicked winter in the northeast United States. Last month, Siberia experienced record snowfall and the worst blizzard in a decade. Above-average snow cover in Siberia is believed to affect the now-famous polar vortex and send bitterly cold temperatures to the Northeast. This happens when the Arctic Oscillation, a climate pattern, shifts. http://www.wcnc.com/story/news/nation/2015/11/07/record-siberian-snow-could-bode-ill-northeast/75224060/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Record Siberian snow could bode ill for Northeast USA Today article via WCNC There is a theory about snow in Siberia during the month of October: If there is a lot, it can mean a particularly wicked winter in the northeast United States. Last month, Siberia experienced record snowfall and the worst blizzard in a decade. Above-average snow cover in Siberia is believed to affect the now-famous polar vortex and send bitterly cold temperatures to the Northeast. This happens when the Arctic Oscillation, a climate pattern, shifts. http://www.wcnc.com/story/news/nation/2015/11/07/record-siberian-snow-could-bode-ill-northeast/75224060/ Can't wait for BOS and NYC to get their 100" totals this winter! There does not seem to be any normal low temps or below freezing temps in the next 2+ weeks! Don't know if I've ever made it to Dec without a freeze, that I can recall? Is that unusual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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