Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Yeah Monday's timing isn't great... but damn that's a beautiful EML overhead late Sunday. Classic stuff. Let's hope we don't waste it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I will be up at Winni. Hoping for a Moultonboro Mauler. One of my favorite airports to drop in for AvGas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Hi, this is southern New England...where a "big outbreak" means ominous looking scud clouds, and wind gusts barely stronger than a termite fart true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Hi, this is southern New England...where a "big outbreak" means ominous looking scud clouds, and wind gusts barely stronger than a termite fart NNE doesn't have termites (or at least, not many) so we don't even get that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Yeah Monday's timing isn't great... but damn that's a beautiful EML overhead late Sunday. Classic stuff. We root for it to speed up even more? GFS clears the coast basically by Monday morning. Sunday starting to look a little nasty across NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 We root for it to speed up even more? GFS clears the coast basically by Monday morning. Sunday starting to look a little nasty across NY. Id be down with that. The dprog/dt on the drops has been pretty crazy. May have to come back from Vermont a bit early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Id be down with that. The dprog/dt on the drops has been pretty crazy. May have to come back from Vermont a bit early. Could turn into a very long day at Loudon for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 We root for it to speed up even more? GFS clears the coast basically by Monday morning. Sunday starting to look a little nasty across NY. So you're saying instead of a Monday outbreak.. We should be hoping/ thinking it's more Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 So you're saying instead of a Monday outbreak.. We should be hoping/ thinking it's more Sunday? More likely "none-day". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 We root for it to speed up even more? GFS clears the coast basically by Monday morning. Sunday starting to look a little nasty across NY. I haven't looked at a thing, but we do our 15hr drive back from MI on Sunday. Throw me an I90 tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 So you're saying instead of a Monday outbreak.. We should be hoping/ thinking it's more Sunday? Sunday isn't ideal timing either. We're in between, as usual. But I wouldn't rule out sustaining convection through the overnight given the lapse rates aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Meh, this reminds me of that car you buy with 280,000 miles on it, but it looks good - you got that going for you... What was once a SLIGHT demotes to an old clunker whose better years and miles are in fading photographs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Euro is much slower with the fropa and hammer time is Monday PM..GFS seems too fast as usual. Euro 6 hours slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Just did a point and click on the 18z NAM for Sunday across central NY and the instability is insane...over 5000 MLcape and over 6000 SBcape with TT's in the lower 60's. Crazy to see those numbers across these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Just did a point and click on the 18z NAM for Sunday across central NY and the instability is insane...over 5000 MLcape and over 6000 SBcape with TT's in the lower 60's. Crazy to see those numbers across these parts. How about the NYC metro? Just wanna keep a heads up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 How about the NYC metro? Just wanna keep a heads up It's pretty damn unstable down that way as well. I don't think though we're looking at much in the way of convection on Sunday...although with this type of instability it doesn't take much of a ripple moving through the atmosphere to spark something off. The majority of the convective potential will be ahead of the pre-frontal trough associated with a cold front which will be moving through. The million dollar question right now is timing...is it early Monday? later on Monday? However, I really wouldn't rule out the possibility of overnight severe potential Sunday into Monday...especially if it remains quite unstable through the night which is a very distinct possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Just did a point and click on the 18z NAM for Sunday across central NY and the instability is insane...over 5000 MLcape and over 6000 SBcape with TT's in the lower 60's. Crazy to see those numbers across these parts. And all we'll get is one black bottomed TCU with a couple nickle to quarter sized windshield blats. ... do to the impenetrable shield of metaphysical convective death that's clearly cursed upon this region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 There are issues with today, tomorrow, and Monday. Not expecting much in the way of widespread severe activity but isolated threats perhaps. Today we are dealing with a ton of cloud debris which will effect instability. Tomorrow we will be under more riding aloft with plenty of heat and humidity but perhaps somewhat capped into the evening outside of perhaps the Berkshires,NW CT. Monday the timing of the PFT and FROPA may prohibit much widespread with perhaps eastern areas having the best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 There are issues with today, tomorrow, and Monday. Not expecting much in the way of widespread severe activity but isolated threats perhaps. Today we are dealing with a ton of cloud debris which will effect instability. Tomorrow we will be under more riding aloft with plenty of heat and humidity but perhaps somewhat capped into the evening outside of perhaps the Berkshires,NW CT. Monday the timing of the PFT and FROPA may prohibit much widespread with perhaps eastern areas having the best chance. Euro is perfect timing wise Monday. GFS is tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Even with perfect timing Monday I don't think we are looking at widespread severe weather potential. While the potential is there for >3000 SBcape and 2500 MLcape the winds aloft are kind of lacking. If these instability values materialized, they would certainly compensate for lack of stronger shear. What the lack of stronger shear will do is prevent great storm organization and probably make for more pulse-like storms which will have the potential to produce damaging winds in the form of microbursts. Can't rule out hail either but with lack of shear it may be hard to get much in the way of severe hail, although 1'' couldn't be ruled out..maybe slightly larger. FWIW, the 6z GFS does seem a tad slower with timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Torrential rains/flash flooding would be an issue along with some pretty vivid lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Clearing from the NY/PA border through Central NY looks to be progressing toward Mass. Hopefully that'll continue. If it can widen, could bring a nice break of sun for areas outside of Mass as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Torrential rains/flash flooding would be an issue along with some pretty vivid lightningcongrats Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Just heard some distant rumbles from the cell south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Reports of scary ctg from the east slope and some decent base velocities showing up in the valley. Constant rumbling here. We've not seen a hint of sun today and it's cool at the surface, but there must be some good instability aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Hearing a few rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Tons of lightning and thunder pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Tons of lightning and thunder pouring Nice. The sun's out up here in GC. 66.3/64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Lightning is insane with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Some banging to the NW, but par the course another miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.