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Tropical Atlantic 2015 speculation/action

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What are the odds of the TUTT splitting and backing away from Danny as it nears the NE Caribbean in five days and just beyond? Models seem pretty unanimous in that the TUTT will be a problem by that time, so what evolution in the overall pattern could make that change?

 

Windspeed wrote:

Location and timing, of course. If the system is kept weaker due to shear, it probably treks further south with the ridge and struggles into the central Caribbean. Though shear hasn't been as formidable in the eastern Caribbean the past week, that could be temporary and could just as likely increase again to what has been observed the past few months. Shear associated with the weakness to the north of the 96L should weaken as the weakness lifts out. If the system does manage to stay in a relatively low sheared environment by early next week, a stronger storm's interaction with the ridge might allow it to avoid the killzone. It will be interesting to watch play out.

So you expect shear to actually decrease on or after day five as Danny approaches the NE Caribbean?

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What are the odds of the TUTT splitting and backing away from Danny as it nears the NE Caribbean in five days and just beyond? Models seem pretty unanimous in that the TUTT will be a problem by that time, so what evolution in the overall pattern could make that change?

Windspeed wrote:

So you expect shear to actually decrease on or after day five as Danny approaches the NE Caribbean?

We need as big and strong of a system as possible. With a big anticyclone overhead. This way the storm will begin to change the enviroment around. Also bigger stronger storms tend to curve more poleward thus staying out of the Caribbean shesr death zone

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Are you still doing those videos?

 

I'm obviously not holding my breath for anything but there is a window for it to do something that isn't lame. First thing I thought of was how hostile is the Caribbean and if it goes north of the islands can it do the elusive WNW movement while directly north of them. Its got a good initial setup which has been uncommon recently and looks great today.

 

Yes, as a matter of fact I've been prepping video editing software up to date to prepare for the upcoming wrath of Danny.

 

As far as the TUTT goes, reminds me a GREAT deal of Hurricane Dean as it approached an extremely unfavorable TUTT which backed off as then-100 mph Dean approached the islands.

 

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Even if Danny were to still be a solvent tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, Hispaniola is right in the path of the storm.

 

With the exception of David in '79, usually they find a way back. See: Georges 1998, Gustav 2008

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With the exception of David in '79, usually they find a way back. See: Georges 1998, Gustav 2008

 

Not to mention there is plenty of time for the track to move around, either way the islands look to have something to worry about for sure....

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Even if Danny becomes a complete flop...the ECMWF still has to more CV systems

 

(that both dissipate by the end of the run lol)

 

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atltropics_6.png

At least there's finally some action in the pipeline.  A shower within a long term drought better than no rain at all.  :popcorn:

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When was the last time a major hurricane approached the Lesser Antilles?

Hurricane Earl became a major hurricane as it brushed the Leeward Islands (northern Lesser Antilles) in 2010. If that counts, it's the last one I remember.

Before that it might have been Hurricane Ivan in 2004.

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Given that 98L is embedded in a strong, low-level, easterly trade surge, it will be hard pressed to develop until the gradient relaxes near the Lesser Antilles in about four days. A young system simply can't consolidate when it's moving at 15-20 kt. Additionally, the easterlies are bringing a very stable air mass to the north of 98L that will persist over the next several days. The operational ECMWF, by showing some development before then, differs sharply from its ensembles, most of which show little or no development or even weakening. By the time 98L reaches the islands, moreover, it will running into the persistent TUTT axis that has bedeviled many systems this season (and indeed in most of the past four seasons). I have strong doubts that 98L will survive the hostile conditions that it is facing, which are worse than those that Danny faced, as Danny at least did not have to deal with strong easterlies undercutting its vertical stacking, allowing it to become a major hurricane before succumbing to the TUTT.

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It depends on which models you are looking at to back your theory.  Most models are in disagreement on what happens to 98L, some develop it to a hurricane, some don't.  It all depends on when that TUTT axis moves out of the way.

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Not to mention there is plenty of time for the track to move around, either way the islands look to have something to worry about for sure....

 

Not so much after all.. A 40MPH TS.

 

I'm worried that Danny's future could hold Major Hurricane Intensity and threatening the Bahamas, then FL or the SE US coastline.

You had to of been trolling when you wrote this last night, right? He wasn't even a hurricane when you made this post.

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Looking at that ASCAT and visual satellite, the LLC is appears exposed on the NW side of nearest convection. Probably wouldn't take much for the initation of advisories as a named storm once convection becomes a little more organized.

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From a chasing standpoint, nothing is more frustrating is seeing the ECMWF and its ensembles shift westward, showing ridging strong enough to drive 98L into FL, and then drop down a nice TUTT that moves in tandem with 98L, shearing it apart into an open wave that tracks into FL. If you're not dealing with a persistent, fishy East Coast trough, then you're dealing with shear. Grrr. I'm still sticking to my earlier contention that this system won't survive beyond day three, even if it does manage to become a depression or weak storm over the next 36 hours.

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