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Tropical Atlantic 2015 speculation/action


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As we approach peak TW season, it appears that conditions in the TNA region are getting a little less hostile. Modeling shows somewhat favorable upper level conditions in the Central and Eastern Atlantic the next days, and we already have a healthy TW south of the Cape Verde islands.

 

I don't expect near ideal conditions, but at least much improved compared to what he have seen so far.

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That's pretty much climo for this time of the year. Almost all dry air is north of the TW, and since it's underneath a deep layered ridge, there's no mechanism to help ingest that dry air into the circulation. Still status-quo with that TW, but conditions should remain marginally favorable for some development the next few days.

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That's pretty much climo for this time of the year. Almost all dry air is north of the TW, and since it's underneath a deep layered ridge, there's no mechanism to help ingest that dry air into the circulation. Still status-quo with that TW, but conditions should remain marginally favorable for some development the next few days.

Thanks for the lesson.

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In spite of the "downgrade" by the latest TWO, the latest visible shows organization of a small low level circulation in the Central Atlantic with increasing convection near the center, and hints of banding in it's west semicircle. This would be a very fragile low in a fragile environment, so development expectations are still rather low.

 

There's another area of interest, in the northern GoM. Even during the strongest Niños, the northern GoM is not as hostile as the deep tropics. Still, organization is almost non existent, other than some persistent thunderstorms. Any development would take it's sweet time. 

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There's another area of interest, in the northern GoM. Even during the strongest Niños, the northern GoM is not as hostile as the deep tropics. Still, organization is almost non existent, other than some persistent thunderstorms. Any development would take it's sweet time. 

 

Yes, there is a spiral just over land at the moment.  i will try to find a more specific radar loop image but it is well visible here too. :)

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

 

 

this self updating loop should allow the circulation to be tracked for a day or two!

http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=TLH&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=23975612&lat=30.42930031&lon=-84.25710297&label=Tallahassee%2C+FL

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post-8089-0-85907000-1438543419_thumb.gi

 

The circulation is over water now; it is hard to say what would happen but this overall area is in a pocket where cyclones have formed over the past year and of course earlier years, east of an incoming large ULL.  (this image will self-update) 

 

wv.jpg

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post-8089-0-57299500-1438705393_thumb.gi

 

The southeast TUTT cyclonic flow is now Invest 95L ...

see this corresponding tropical forum for some talk about it. :)

 

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117403&start=80

 

From that thread, here also is a visible satellite image that will self-update

 

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GANIMdL7Y3l15.jpg

 

and its source image loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=33&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

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Noticing the long range GFS for several days and today the ECMWF indicating tropical cyclone potential off the coast of Africa late next week. In fact the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook from CPC indicating a moderate chance of above average rainfall over the southern Sahel going into mid August.

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Noticing the long range GFS for several days and today the ECMWF indicating tropical cyclone potential off the coast of Africa late next week. In fact the Global Tropical Hazards Outlook from CPC indicating a moderate chance of above average rainfall over the southern Sahel going into mid August.

 

Quite a few members of the GEFS (and ECMWF-ens) show a robust wave coming off Africa between 192 and 240 h.  If something were to develop, this would be the favored region to do so with lower shear than most of the rest of the MDR or Caribbean. 

 

Problem is that anything that does develop would likely develop north of the CV islands (more-so per ECMWF and its ensembles) and recurve quickly into low SSTs and dry mid-latitude air, but at this range things can change and at least it's something to watch. 

 

 

post-378-0-53378500-1438728037_thumb.png

 

post-378-0-78775000-1438728353_thumb.png

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In spite of the "downgrade" by the latest TWO, the latest visible shows organization of a small low level circulation in the Central Atlantic with increasing convection near the center, and hints of banding in it's west semicircle. This would be a very fragile low in a fragile environment, so development expectations are still rather low.

This pesky low has survived, and shear has diminished to less than 10kts. Also it appears the atmosphere is a bit more unstable, which has the effect of stronger convection around its center at this moment. The low is around 12N 52W.
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This pesky low has survived, and shear has diminished to less than 10kts. Also it appears the atmosphere is a bit more unstable, which has the effect of stronger convection around its center at this moment. The low is around 12N 52W.

 

I'm actually surprised that it still has some deep convection right now; but it's only got another 24h at best before it gets sheared to death by the Caribbean shredder. 

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I'm actually surprised that it still has some deep convection right now; but it's only got another 24h at best before it gets sheared to death by the Caribbean shredder. 

Yep, the ULL in the W Atlantic is going to move SW and elongate, bringing it's shredding effects with it to the Caribbean. And since the convection is waning, there's almost zero chance now that it can develop into anything.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The East Coast may need to watch SW of Bermuda next week as all the models are showing a MLC sitting there and the GFS shows a trough developing with this feature while the 12zEuro shows a possible tropical system developing around 168hrs and while I don't think it will be like this system but it seems to have similar evolution to Bob in 1991 and possibly similar path if it should develop with the steering flow on the Euro and even GFS

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A robust AEW has become 96L in the far eastern Atlantic. It actually has support from the UKM/ECM to develop over the next five days and at least bring some rain to the drought-stricken Caribbean. TCGEN numbers from CIMSS are actually quite high at 60/90 for the the next 2 and 5 days respectively. The enviorment looks pretty conducive as well with low shear and decent 700-500mb RH numbers. We'll see how it holds up over the next 24-48 hours. 

 

ScreenHunter_191%20Aug.%2016%2011.27.png

 

 

ScreenHunter_191%20Aug.%2016%2011.28.png

 

 

20150816.1445.msg3.x.vis2km.96LINVEST.20

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