weathafella Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 He must be good at believing he's selling stuff people need when they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 67 > 122 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Nice Tip blue bomb for April 30 - May 1st over the interior on the GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Nice Tip blue bomb for April 30 - May 1st over the interior on the GGEM... with the progged upper levels it's an interesting period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 it's really the same event for the 28th ... being pushed back in time a little. It kind of makes sense to do so, though, because in an increasing amplitude derivative, slowing systems down over original modeling tends to be a prerequisite need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 By the way, this whole thing is Archembault, too, regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Too bad the event didn't occur a month earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Too bad the event didn't occur a month earlier. We'll probably look back on it come July ...grateful we got the rain. Could see this summer being a red-flagger - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 man, that GGEM run would be near or at historic CF if we had a spring moon in the area. That's a sick set-up for protracted ENE fetch of strong wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 man, that GGEM run would be near or at historic CF if we had a spring moon in the area. That's a sick set-up for protracted ENE fetch of strong wind.full moon but tides are meh, 10.5 versus neaps of 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I just ran the ratio....May 1st through May 5th at ORH going back to 1947...here's the breakdown for high temps: 30s: 2 40s: 33 50s: 89 70s: 56 80s: 11 90s: 0 Even the Tarmac at BDL is like 60/40 split 70s/80s, versus 50s/40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Well, I'm going to an outdoor wedding, May 1st, Hingham, Ma.seems like an interesting period, storm wise...hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Well, I'm going to an outdoor wedding, May 1st, Hingham, Ma.seems like an interesting period, storm wise...hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, right?we have an outside wedding here Friday , despite me warning the planner about the weather. Brides not knowing climo ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Well, I'm going to an outdoor wedding, May 1st, Hingham, Ma.seems like an interesting period, storm wise...hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, right? It begs the question of why anyone would do an outdoor wedding in hingham as early as May 1. I don't like going to ball games at night before June around here though I broke down last year and paid dearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Looks like we catch a break around 5-2 and go normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Too bad the event didn't occur a month earlier.actually a week earlier would have worked, cold air source is vacating moderating next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Euro still looks awful thru day 10 #help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Massive massive changes on overnight Euro..Now a big warmup/semi torch May 1-3.. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Massive massive changes on overnight Euro..Now a big warmup/semi torch May 1-3.. Yes please The euro op is like a 12 hr warmup. Ensembles are ugly still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 The euro op is like a 12 hr warmup. Ensembles are ugly still. I figured it was too good to be true..Was still nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 I figured it was too good to be true..Was still nice to see Well if we get NW winds and some sun...it's not bad. Not sure I buy the "warmer" look later in the 11-15 day...although it still is troughy over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Has anyone discussed or looked at the 3rd week of April and why there tends to be a few very warm days Almost every year across SNE. We hit 80 again this year, seems like almost every year we are between 80-90 degrees for a few days during this timeframe then cool off again for late April. Seems to be warmer than the first week of May like you were talking about earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Is that a tropical storm coming up the coast in GFS fantasy land? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Has anyone discussed or looked at the 3rd week of April and why there tends to be a few very warm days Almost every year across SNE. We hit 80 again this year, seems like almost every year we are between 80-90 degrees for a few days during this timeframe then cool off again for late April. Seems to be warmer than the first week of May like you were talking about earlier. This is entirely hypothetical but I have noticed this often in the past, as well... Granted, neither of us have lived for 10,000 years, so our experiential sample set is minimal at best... still, in the time I've been allowed to live between the GL and NE, an early "morchy"/"napril" stint is more often than not a death sentence for term or two in May. Why? My hypothesis is best delivered metaphorically: it has to do with "seasonal reflex" ? Think of is as the winter being a rubber band that is stretched taut and beyond... Then the great puller of the band relaxes grip ...circa the Equinox, and the band comes back and then over-shoots the resting state by a bit... That "over-shoot" is the warm up ... It's a faux spring that comes in when the main polar jet/mean retreats and floods the medium with rotted polar warmth and/or outright season's first Gulf inject. But, then the band comes back and even overcompensates in the cooler direction, and there's your April snow, or your May case of the quagmires. Finally, the burgeoning subtropical ridging of summer overwhelms and/or the sun just annihilates all gradients and the flow either becomes ring of fire or meandering -- but sans the cold. But the above paragraph is more like art than science, admittedly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitinsvilleWX Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 I've heard it postulated it could have something to do with the final stratospheric warming event that takes place every spring. These warmings occur every winter on and off, butn there is usually one final event in late March or thereabouts that set up the late spring/ summer vortex configuration. Every SW event usually pushes cold air to lower lattitudes with somewhat of a lag, maybe 2 up to 3 weeks. So if a final warming event occurs say the end of March, the cold spell would/could coincide around the 3rd week of april. Other forces are at work im sure, but its plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Probably the wrong thread to post this and but here in Westerly Rhode Island we have a heavy graupel/snow shower going on right now. Quite amazing for April 23 right at sea level 2 miles from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 This is entirely hypothetical but I have noticed this often in the past, as well... Granted, neither of us have lived for 10,000 years, so our experiential sample set is minimal at best... still, in the time I've been allowed to live between the GL and NE, an early "morchy"/"napril" stint is more often than not a death sentence for term or two in May. Why? My hypothesis is best delivered metaphorically: it has to do with "seasonal reflex" ? Think of is as the winter being a rubber band that is stretched taut and beyond... Then the great puller of the band relaxes grip ...circa the Equinox, and the band comes back and then over-shoots the resting state by a bit... That "over-shoot" is the warm up ... It's a faux spring that comes in when the main polar jet/mean retreats and floods the medium with rotted polar warmth and/or outright season's first Gulf inject. But, then the band comes back and even overcompensates in the cooler direction, and there's your April snow, or your May case of the quagmires. Finally, the burgeoning subtropical ridging of summer overwhelms and/or the sun just annihilates all gradients and the flow either becomes ring of fire or meandering -- but sans the cold. But the above paragraph is more like art than science, admittedly... There may be some truth to it...in the spring, the wavelengths tend to be really short...so a big wamrup usually requires pretty sharp ridging...well as we know, sharp ridging means that somewhere nearby there is sharp troughing...eventually that ridge moves on and we get welcomed into the death sentence that is a sharp spring trough in the process of cutting off from the flow.... Of course, like you, that is a fairly rudimentary way of explaining it, but I think there may be some conceptual merit there. Obviously we'd have to run the mounds of data to see exactly what type of response there is in numeric terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 I want this. Valid May 1st. Welcome to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 I want this. Valid May 1st. Welcome to spring. gfs_namer_210_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Ski Jay peak next Saturday instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Ski Jay peak next Saturday instead? Haha, yeah. Jay's photo from this morning... I haven't been up the road to the base of Mansfield yet today, but it was snowing pretty good earlier on the web cam. Fresh wind-blown accumulations on the roof-top of the web cam in the base area. 33F currently at 1,500ft. Brrrrrr. That snow on the roof wasn't there yesterday evening. And all bare patches are white again on the ski trails. Would explain the persistent flurries we saw this morning in town, but also shows how its a whole other world just a couple miles up the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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