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Space Weather Discussion


ApacheTrout
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  • 5 months later...

https://www.spaceweather.com/

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM--NOW!! The first of six CMEs hurled toward Earth by giant sunspot AR3664 just hit our planet's magnetic field. The impact on May 10th at 1645 UT jolted magnetometers around the world (e.g., 108 nT in Boulder CO) and sparked a severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storm. This storm is underway now. More CMEs are following close behind (see below) and their arrival could extend the storm into the weekend. Stay tuned! CME impact alerts: SMS Text

UPDATE--SIX CMEs HURLED TOWARD EARTH: The number of CMEs heading for Earth keeps increasing. The total is now six following this morning's X3.9-class flare from giant sunspot AR3664. All six storm clouds are captured in this time-lapse movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO):

five_CMEs_opt.gif

The two bright objects are Jupiter (left) and Venus (right). The CMEs will miss those planets and hit Earth instead.

According to a NOAA forecast model, the first three CMEs could merge to form a "Cannibal CME." Cannibal CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake and gobble up slower CMEs in front of them. Internal shock waves created by such CME collisions do a good job sparking geomagnetic storms when they strike Earth's magnetic field.

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3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I see that.  KP index 7.7    Will these clouds tend to dissipate after sunset?  Moon phase is good too.

Bz at -25 too.....you know this is going to line up perfect and then we're gonna get stuck in clouds.

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This site seems to be pretty updated. If someone has a better tracking site then post in here. 
 

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity.html

From my amateur knowledge on this you want big Kp (usually over Kp of 6 gives us a chance) and big negative Bz values. I’m not sure how much the other stuff matters but maybe it does. 

 

 

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Not sure I’ve seen these numbers happen at night since October 2003. Did we achieve this in Nov 2006? My memory is hazy from that event but I feel like it was a bit short. I remember not seeing anything in ‘06 but I could see it pretty easily in 2003. 

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32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This one looks legit. Hopefully some cloud breaks tonight lol.

Saw the northern lights in VT in ‘03 and it was pretty awesome. Hoping we can sneak a break in the clouds tonight. Would be great to get a repeat. 

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2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

A lot, more negative the better

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I know it has to be negative, but if KP is really high, how much does that matter is what I mean.

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Bt of 73.8 is the highest I think I've ever seen reported from the ACE spacecraft.  I think 2003 was like 50ish.  The potential for tonight is some serious once in a lifetime stuff.

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it has to be negative, but if KP is really high, how much does that matter is what I mean.

You wouldn't get a high KP without a negative bz. 

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3 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Bt of 73.8 is the highest I think I've ever seen reported from the ACE spacecraft.  I think 2003 was like 50ish.  The potential for tonight is some serious once in a lifetime stuff.

You wouldn't get a high KP without a negative bz. 

 I’m catching up on my space weenie terms now.

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