ravensrule Posted April 20, 2015 Share Posted April 20, 2015 Means nothing at this point, but I'd say +AO, +NAO, +PDO, Mod - Strong Nino, Slightly above average temps, Snow between median and normal For DCA DEC: +1 January: +3 February: Normal DCA Snow - 14" Analogs, 1905-06, 1914-15, 1982-83 You are a brave and ballsy man putting out winter forecasts in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 You are a brave and ballsy man putting out winter forecasts in April. I didn't put out a winter forecast. It is a WAG that means nothing at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 My guess is strong nina, +AO, +NAO, -PDO, +EPO, +WPO, and record-breaking October Siberian snow-cover. Dec: +5 Jan: +6 Feb: +7 Snowfall: Try again in 2016 - '17. Analogs: '97 - '98 combined with '11 - '12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 My guess is strong nina, +AO, +NAO, -PDO, +EPO, +WPO, and record-breaking October Siberian snow-cover. Dec: +5 Jan: +6 Feb: +7 Snowfall: Try again in 2016 - '17. Analogs: '97 - '98 combined with '11 - '12 Don't think we have a -PDO next winter, but I think a winter with some shades of 97-98 is possible with increasing chances of a strong Nino (and maybe east-based). Probably an overall warm winter, but I could see us getting 1 KU that drops 75%+ of the winter's total snowfall. Jonjon will probably be buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 we all know the long range ENSO models and predictions aren't that great, but since they all seem to be going for a mod or warmer NINO, it's hard to think they could all be wrong right now, that max credible range of the models per the link I posted is September, which obviously still leaves many months before winter arrives frankly, idk what to think (something between 97/98 and 09/10 would be my range right now I suppose lol) until we get into August and have a better idea of the strength and location of the warmest temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 It's meaningless right now but the stout +pdo has taken a fairly big beating the last couple months. We won't know much on that front for half a year at least. ENSO is no doubt on the move lately. But again, we've been down this road before at long leads. If it collapsed to neg neutral by Dec I wouldn't bat an eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 My guess is strong nina, +AO, +NAO, -PDO, +EPO, +WPO, and record-breaking October Siberian snow-cover. Dec: +5 Jan: +6 Feb: +7 Snowfall: Try again in 2016 - '17. Analogs: '97 - '98 combined with '11 - '12 I hope you're right for no other reason than to read your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I hope you're right for no other reason than to read your posts. That and JI's and Jeb's......lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 22, 2015 Author Share Posted April 22, 2015 My WAG is we see a mini version of 2009-2010, with the storms not being as epic, but still top quality at the same time. Maybe 2-3 storms that get us to 30-40 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 My WAG is we see a mini version of 2009-2010, with the storms not being as epic, but still top quality at the same time. Maybe 2-3 storms that get us to 30-40 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Global cooling FTW. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 4m 4 minutes ago http://Weatherbell.com on record for another Garden of Eden summer and likely cold winter next yr. again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 23, 2015 Share Posted April 23, 2015 Global cooling FTW. Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 4m 4 minutes ago http://Weatherbell.com on record for another Garden of Eden summer and likely cold winter next yr. again! add to that a Miller A extravaganza! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted April 27, 2015 Author Share Posted April 27, 2015 Can we get the Miller A set-up on the 06z GFS for next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 El nino should work its magic, even if it's warm it should be eventful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 El nino should work its magic, even if it's warm it should be eventful. I wouldn't necessarily like it, but it would be funny to hope for a Nino like most here have and then get a 97-98 repeat. This forum would be a fun place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 I wouldn't necessarily like it, but it would be funny to hope for a Nino like most here have and then get a 97-98 repeat. This forum would be a fun place to be. I'm unusually disinterested in the upcoming winter. We had back to back cold and snowy ones. Lots to track. The only dud month last winter was December. The stretch from valentines onward was wild. If we go warm next winter with even just one sizeable event and a couple typical small ones scattered around, I don't think there will be too much complaining. Nothing like the boiling point reached during 12-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 I'm unusually disinterested in the upcoming winter. We had back to back cold and snowy ones. Lots to track. The only dud month last winter was December. The stretch from valentines onward was wild. If we go warm next winter with even just one sizeable event and a couple typical small ones scattered around, I don't think there will be too much complaining. Nothing like the boiling point reached during 12-13. going warm will be putting it lightly Bob if this CFS2 forecast is close with its current prediction lol fortunately, it often over does NINAs and NINOs at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 I'm inclined to agree with Mitch here, that would rival 97-98 locally if it came to pass. Can't expect a 2012 repeat, that was a la nina pattern. 97-98 was almost spring-esque well into the heart of winter, torrential rain and clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 Seasonal enso forecasts are really good in April. Euro/CFS nailed it at this lead last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 I'm unusually disinterested in the upcoming winter. We had back to back cold and snowy ones. Lots to track. The only dud month last winter was December. The stretch from valentines onward was wild. If we go warm next winter with even just one sizeable event and a couple typical small ones scattered around, I don't think there will be too much complaining. Nothing like the boiling point reached during 12-13. I had more snow in 12-13 than I did this past winter. Of course, a third of it came from a crap 11" storm in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 I had more snow in 12-13 than I did this past winter. Of course, a third of it came from a crap 11" storm in March. Last three years for my backyard: 11" 50" 24" I was in a small screw zone last winter, so I don't have nearly as far to fall next year as most others around here. And I have a much bigger upside. IF Nino does dun' blow up, then we may be in for a wet ride unless we somehow get the PDO to help us again. Wouldn't bother me, to be honest, especially if that means the rest of the East Coast goes the same way. The cold of the last two winters has gotten under my skin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 It gone feel good, just sayin'. After two years in the icebox, we could use a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 It gone feel good, just sayin'. After two years in the icebox, we could use a break. April through November is not break enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 It gone feel good, just sayin'. After two years in the icebox, we could use a break. Lol people are so melodramatic on here. I think 6 months or so is plenty of break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 Lol people are so melodramatic on here. I think 6 months or so is plenty of break. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Lol people are so melodramatic on here. I think 6 months or so is plenty of break. For me, a break would be a couple month of cool/cold. We've had five months of it the last couple years, and by the end of the winter the chill starts to get really old. I personally prefer the seasons during which stuff lives and grows. Call me crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 For me, a break would be a couple month of cool/cold. We've had five months of it the last couple years, and by the end of the winter the chill starts to get really old. I personally prefer the seasons during which stuff lives and grows. Call me crazy... You're crazy. But not because of liking warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 FWIW - 'Substantial' El Nino event predicted By Helen Briggs BBC Environment Correspondent http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32704506 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Assuming this really will be a substantial El Nino, one group of analogs to consider is the 2nd year strong El Nino peak group of 1877-8, 1888-9, 1896-7, 1905-6, 1940-1 and 1987-8. The website that I use to get temp./precip. anomalies only goes back to 1895. So, I can only include 1896-7, 1905-6, 1940-1, and 1987-8 in this part of the analysis. If you want to include the other two, you will need to get those from another source. If you want to get snowfall for these six periods (say, Nov-Mar), you will have to look it up somewhere. The bottom line is that the chances of a third really cold winter in a row are far lower than they would have been with a 2nd year weakish Nino. So, if JB actually officially goes with a 3rd very cold winter in a row, the chances are that he'll bust the way it looks as of now imo. Here's what the maps show in aggregate for DJF for the latter four winters: Temp's: at DC near normal (all four were pretty close to normal): Precip.: at DC near to slightly below normal (three near normal; one below norm): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Looks like rainy miller A's are on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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