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3/1-2/2015 SWFE/Wave Discussion


SR Airglow

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I  haven't looed at much guidance, but some of these snowfall maps look disturbingly similar to the event last weekend....just bending this area of the state over. 

Well, without trying to sound to rediculous here because as we are all aware, Mother Nature doesn't care where or who she bends over, but We out in the Central parts/and especially Western parts of SNE have gotten bent over for most of this Historic Run.  It's only balancing out a very small tad as of the last week or so.  However, I certainly do hope you reach your snow Record over in your area.  And I hope this distributes the amounts a lil more evenly than last weekend too.  

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GGEM is a shredded mess still. Probably an inch or so. Weird how it keeps showing that...while GFS and Euro have been insistant on something more like 2-4/3-5.

 

I think it was the potential blizzard up here on Feb 15th that the GGEM was insistent that everything stayed south of NNE and it was more right then wrong as the others still had us up here getting 12"+ amounts until the last 24 hours and we ended up with 2", Not saying its the case with this system this time around but probably can't be totally discounted either

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Well, without trying to sound to rediculous here because as we are all aware, Mother Nature doesn't care where or who she bends over, but We out in the Central parts/and especially Western parts of SNE have gotten bent over for most of this Historic Run.  It's only balancing out a very small tad as of the last week or so.  However, I certainly do hope you reach your snow Record over in your area.  And I hope this distributes the amounts a lil more evenly than last weekend too.  

 Where did I imply that "mother nature was conscious" of who gets what?

I made a simple statement....you are the one who went off and made your own inferences.

PS: Pretty sure Mr. Atmosphere couldn't give a flying one that w NE got stood up by history.

Sorry...hope it works out better for you next millenium when this happens again.

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I think we're definitely getting trigger happy with these snowfall maps. Interesting though that BOX's policy is next accumulating snowfall, and ours is upon issuance of a winter weather headline.

 

 It's a growing epidemic throughout the media....quite the clown map fetish infiltrating OCM Nation.

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 Where did I imply that "mother nature was conscious" of who gets what?

I made a simple statement....you are the one who went off and made your own inferences.

PS: Pretty sure Mr. Atmosphere couldn't give a flying one that w NE got stood up by history.

Sorry...hope it works out better for you next millenium when this happens again.

 

I don't see the relative screw hole near the pike like the last one had. At least at the moment. It's a different storm.

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 Where did I imply that "mother nature was conscious" of who gets what?

I made a simple statement....you are the one who went off and made your own inferences.

PS: Pretty sure Mr. Atmosphere couldn't give a flying one that w NE got stood up by history.

Sorry...hope it works out better for you next millenium when this happens again.

I wasn't implying that at all, and I'm sorry you took my post the wrong way..really.  All I meant was that sometimes things shift around...that was all I meant.  And no, Mr Atmosphere doesnt care you're right.  And Im totally fine with you making history, I even said I hope you do make your all time snow total.  You are so quick to Bite peoples heads off lol.  No need for rubbing salt in our faces in central areas Ray.  You guys lucked out with the eastern shifts this time around...that's cool.  

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Agreed, though not speaking for MBY I think parts of SNE should get 4-6" out of this. Details to be determined, but this system seems to be getting juicier with time on models.

 

The NAM develops a weak low to the south, but usually south winds and bullish snow amounts aren't easy to do..especially there. But the NAM shows you how I guess...granted it is the NAM. The GFS earlier at 6z ticked north a bit. I guess we shall see what 12z does.  This should be colder than the last one too.

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I think the south coast still is close to having some possible issues. I would like to wait another day before going aggressive.

 

Unless this trended south, but the GFS and EC would argue an adjustment north I thought. 

 

 

I def think it could bump north a bit. You look at the embedded vortmaxes and the northern stream shortwave in the lakes and it could argue a bit north. So we'll have to watch for the 850-900mb layer to come into play in southern areas.

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I def think it could bump north a bit. You look at the embedded vortmaxes and the northern stream shortwave in the lakes and it could argue a bit north. So we'll have to watch for the 850-900mb layer to come into play in southern areas.

 

That's how I feel. I don't even feel safe from avoiding any mix, although at this point I'll just enjoy whatever comes.

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I think we're definitely getting trigger happy with these snowfall maps. Interesting though that BOX's policy is next accumulating snowfall, and ours is upon issuance of a winter weather headline.

 

 

I think your WFO has the right idea on these events, Less likely to make a bazillion changes to the snowfall maps and gets the weenies in a uproar as you're stealing there snow.......................... :lol:

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