Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 COD radar definitely does not have the typical virga snowhole look. Returns are advancing right at the site. Little if any virga showing up north of the site. Can't say I expected that. I figured there'd be a fight for a time. Probably doesn't mean anything totals wise. Just less annoyance than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spud Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Flurries in Chantilly VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The snow is fine. Flakes are tiny. I had to get out a magnifying glass but it looks like a mix of prisms and needles right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nieciez Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 18 degrees and been snowing here just before 1:30 p.m. in Lake of the Woods (Orange Co VA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hope the hrrr is wrong of course it is at range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hope the hrrr is wrong Details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miller.b.time Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Is there any reason to believe it may be downplaying some of the moisture advance into drier Northern areas? Because those rock-bottom DPs here at CHO didn't mean anything once those returns started coming in. Hope the hrrr is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steks Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Light snow falling in Manassas. Temp at 16 after a high of 17; dew point at 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Tiny flakes are fine...not getting lift in the optimal snow growth zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hope the hrrr is wrong Basically stops snowing here after 8pm and only light before that...hope it's struggling with the dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Snow began in Richmond around 1pm. Little dusting has started to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Basically stops snowing here after 8pm and only light before that...hope it's struggling with the dry air I'm guessing you're not talking about the 17Z run that fills back in near the end? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=hrrr&area=east-us&cycle=20150216%2017%20UTC¶m=sim_radar_max&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hope the hrrr is wrong i wouldn't sweat it -- i'm actually pleasantly surprised about how fast things have to be moistening up out there (at least based on what i figured out early than I expected returns out west). i don't have a good reason for why the HRRR is wrong -- obviously playing up the dry air -- could still be right i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSOWxWizard Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 First flakes in Waldorf, MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Details? A colleague in my field sent me a loop and it showed heavy stuff well south. Light bands up here then drying then a band to finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 RAP looking better and better imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 solid covering in Middletown, VA, roads included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 -SN in Bristow. 16/4. Picking up in intensity over last 15 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hope the hrrr is wrong Well. Considering that it doesnt have any snow here until 4 hours from now. It is already wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 light snow become steady in Gainesville 17 degrees flakes are beginning to grow in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 18/-5 overcast at National Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 i wouldn't sweat it -- i'm actually pleasantly surprised about how fast things have to be moistening up out there (at least based on what i figured out early than I expected returns out west). i don't have a good reason for why the HRRR is wrong -- obviously playing up the dry air -- could still be right i guess It kinda looks like what the current loop is showing... seems like once the returns get to the east of the mountains they are dissipating. That would make sense given that the gfs is showing like .1-.3 for a lot of central MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Things are getting white in a hurry now. Steady snow, 14.6. Nice dusting to rival the one I had the other night with the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 McLean been holding steady at 20/5 most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 18/-12 at Lake Barcroft a couple miles from Bailey's Crossroads Air is still really dry inside the beltway. EDIT: Or at least in a bubble around my house. Local weatherbug station says 17/-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Very steady light snow in Dale City, ground whitening up pretty quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 this is why you can't trust the HRRR top sim/rad is the 2 hr. shot from the Noon run and the bottom pick is the 1 hr. shot from the 1PM run that just started http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=00200ℑ=data%2Fhrrr%2F17%2Fhrrr_east-us_00200_sim_radar.gif&model=hrrr&area=east-us¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150216+17+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=yes http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=00100ℑ=data%2Fhrrr%2F18%2Fhrrr_east-us_00100_sim_radar.gif&model=hrrr&area=east-us¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150216+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=yes now, multiply the differences and/or errors over a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 very light flurries in fairfax city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Well. Considering that it doesnt have any snow here until 4 hours from now. It is already wrong. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 very light flurries in fairfax city A friend of mine said the same thing. Nothing yet farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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