Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Super Snow Sunday


40/70 Benchmark

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

You found real reasons why to discredit the euro before the meat of the Blizzard by nowcasting, now you are just looking at the models to find reasons to discredit the GFS. It isn't the same because a model shows what it wants. Go and do some real nowcasting to see if it still provides you with the same reasons why the GFS should be wrong ala why the Euro was wrong 2.5 weeks ago.

I documented a real reason on the gfs. It's suffering from feedback. Each run its figuring this out. The changes today are towards the other guidance and it's probably 1 run from finally caving.

The euro will be far more right. It's time we put our faith back in her hands. I am full on spooning the euro right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah...7-10" is the call.  I could care less about the 34 mph wind gusts here.

The GFS had over 1" of QPF previously in this area, so Messenger was right in our neck of the woods.

 

Now, I realize this is just QPF....the mid levels still look fine, but it that really is all that falls, then that is a win for the EURO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This system truly brings along a tremendous amount of torque energy/mechanics.  It's been having difficulty blossoming coherently modeled QPF fields, all along.. .

 

Gee, I wonder why that is.. Could it be because for all intents and purposes there are no DPs above 10 F anywhere N of the Del Marva? Moreover, the baroclinicity over all spanning some 500 naut miles E of the EC is weak sauce, too.

 

The system has the wind mechanical power, no doubt!  But, it's lacking thermodynamics associated with moisture adiabats.  I tongue-in-cheeked the metaphor comparing this to an LP supercell (Low Precipitation..)   They occur most often in near dry-line mesocyclones, and can sometimes just look like a 10,000' tall rotating column of insidious cloud, occasionally probing a funnel over top a ground dust whirl. Somewhere in the backdrop, a small rain curtain with baseball hail ..otherwise, just a stately rotating cloud spectacle.. 

 

This storm is moisture challenged until it's instability and q-v forcing all get out into the Atlantic... It's a race so it were, or will be...  A progressive bomb tries to escape before the closing elevated sigma surfaces have a chance to wrap moisture back in to where it could feed into cyclogenesis ..oh and, snow. 

 

Not sure who is going to win this race.  Going to be fun to watch. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How is it going to score a coup it's changed every six hours for three runs?

Not to me it hasn't. It just so happens to be focusing more and more on the norlun. So what if it's right about the norlun. That would make its QPF output right, so that isn't really a cave if it gives a region wide 6"+ storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The stuff over CT isn't purely norlun either I don't think though there is definitely some assist there...the SREF and GFS are producing some pretty intense forcing within the deepening 500 low.

 

Take a look at the 15z RAP...it keeps trending west with the best focus of WAA in the mid-levels...it is losing the focus out to the east in the Atlantic....thus, it wouldn't surprise me if we get clocked later tonight after a brief lull...all that vroticity curling up from the delmarva and tucking in close to the coast isn't really a recipe for a big eastward whiff on the best forcing. There will be a piece out to the east, but I think it has become less dominant on each run over the past 6-12 hours...and this morning on the short-term guidance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a PIA forecast.

 

i think John  nailed it.....models are not sure which facet of this set up to give more proxy......bone dry antecedent atmosphere and progressive nature, or the absolute beast in the midlevels arriving over the warm  ocean and going nuclear.

 

We'll know in about 24 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First flakes of the storm here in Newport. The different models have everything from Norlun bonanza, to right in the shield, to shafted with most of it to the NE. Other than the blizzard, in s ri, we've mostly looked North jealously. What is certain is howling winds and I'm fascinated to see how this works out. I can't pretend to have any insight into how to prefer models as a complete noob, but there's something nice about the fact that weather can always surprise and disappoint. I wish people could recognize how far things have come, but instead with more advances comes more demand for detail, rather than the fact that broadly things are generally well forecasted.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not to me it hasn't. It just so happens to be focusing more and more on the norlun. So what if it's right about the norlun. That would make its QPF output right, so that isn't really a cave if it gives a region wide 6"+ storm.

 

Doesn't the Euro already do that, and pretty much has done that for 2+ days without the 1.2 or 1.4" QPF bombs the GFS wanted to throw in?

Last night this was a .75 to 1.4" smash all the way to Mount Washington where by this run it's down to less than .25

 

You're making the argument I used to make to Will at times Euro vs GFS.   Just because the GFS "MAY" get one aspect right but overshot for 80% of the rest of the region while the Euro may slightly undershoot for 20% and mostly get the other 80% right....

 

 

The GFS had a huge swatch of 1"+ last night at 0z.  That's totally gone now.  One more run and it'll realize we aren't going to spin a secondary ozone hole off LI this evening, and it should finally cave to the Euro type solution which is, well...not terribly different from what the GFS is providing aside of the magic spin.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doesn't the Euro already do that, and pretty much has done that for 2+ days without the 1.2 or 1.4" QPF bombs the GFS wanted to throw in?

Last night this was a .75 to 1.4" smash all the way to Mount Washington where by this run it's down to less than .25

 

You're making the argument I used to make to Will at times Euro vs GFS.   Just because the GFS "MAY" get one aspect right but overshot for 80% of the rest of the region while the Euro may slightly undershoot for 20% and mostly get the other 80% right....

 

 

The GFS had a huge swatch of 1"+ last night at 0z.  That's totally gone now.  One more run and it'll realize we aren't going to spin a secondary ozone hole off LI this evening, and it should finally cave to the Euro type solution which is, well...not terribly different from what the GFS is providing aside of the magic spin.

That is what I have been saying.

 

Can't really call it a win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How is it going to score a coup it's changed every six hours for three runs?

Which only exemplifies the possible outcome of any model, they all be bobbing.

I don't understand why some refuse to acknowledge that, rather some want to jump on little facets with sound reasoning why one thinks the outcome because of xyz variable is as such... people are being to critical. People have no backbone, respect is totally blown away dealing with there precious white gold.

For whatever reason I'll never understand, relax, stay safe and enjoy, get through the next 30hrs.

12"+ ORH eastward. Jacks 18-22" FIRM

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is what I have been saying.

 

Can't really call it a win.

 

I mean it's not even close, look at the variations run to run...and look at NH and Maine, even Vermont...blizzard last night....hazy sunshine with snow showers today.  Win?  LOL  From this  you can see the GFS reached it's maximum craziness two runs ago and is now pressing hard south with the max shield.

 

xYdUFbs.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This system truly brings along a tremendous amount of torque energy/mechanics.  It's been having difficulty blossoming coherently modeled QPF fields, all along.. .

 

Gee, I wonder why that is.. Could it be because for all intents and purposes there are no DPs above 10 F anywhere N of the Del Marva? Moreover, the baroclinicity over all spanning some 500 naut miles E of the EC is weak sauce, too.

 

The system has the wind mechanical power, no doubt!  But, it's lacking thermodynamics associated with moisture adiabats.  I tongue-in-cheeked the metaphor comparing this to an LP supercell (Low Precipitation..)   They occur most often in near dry-line mesocyclones, and can sometimes just look like a 10,000' tall rotating column of insidious cloud, occasionally probing a funnel over top a ground dust whirl. Somewhere in the backdrop, a small rain curtain with baseball hail ..otherwise, just a stately rotating cloud spectacle.. 

 

This storm is moisture challenged until it's instability and q-v forcing all get out into the Atlantic... It's a race so it were, or will be...  A progressive bomb tries to escape before the closing elevated sigma surfaces have a chance to wrap moisture back in to where it could feed into cyclogenesis ..oh and, snow. 

 

Not sure who is going to win this race.  Going to be fun to watch. 

After a morning low of -8F with a -16F dew, the temp and dew point have quickly rebounded this morning.  

 

Temp up to 30.1 and dew up to +16 on a breezy south wind. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...