Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Would be funny to see the Fall River, New Bedford peeps jack like the gfs shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just speaking for my area specifically, the GFS seems to have caved. About .6" qpf is the same as the EURO. Again, just my area. Yeah...7-10" is the call. I could care less about the 34 mph wind gusts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You found real reasons why to discredit the euro before the meat of the Blizzard by nowcasting, now you are just looking at the models to find reasons to discredit the GFS. It isn't the same because a model shows what it wants. Go and do some real nowcasting to see if it still provides you with the same reasons why the GFS should be wrong ala why the Euro was wrong 2.5 weeks ago. I documented a real reason on the gfs. It's suffering from feedback. Each run its figuring this out. The changes today are towards the other guidance and it's probably 1 run from finally caving. The euro will be far more right. It's time we put our faith back in her hands. I am full on spooning the euro right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Just speaking for my area specifically, the GFS seems to have caved. About .6" qpf is the same as the EURO. Again, just my area. 10-14 was my thought all along, not changing seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah...7-10" is the call. I could care less about the 34 mph wind gusts here. The GFS had over 1" of QPF previously in this area, so Messenger was right in our neck of the woods. Now, I realize this is just QPF....the mid levels still look fine, but it that really is all that falls, then that is a win for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Would be funny to see the Fall River, New Bedford peeps jack like the gfs shows. Congrats Cuttyhunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 How is it going to score a coup it's changed every six hours for three runs? Yea, pretty big inconsistencies with respect to output. You can cut some areas nearly in half and act like it $hat a golden egg. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I'm guessing 8" for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This system truly brings along a tremendous amount of torque energy/mechanics. It's been having difficulty blossoming coherently modeled QPF fields, all along.. . Gee, I wonder why that is.. Could it be because for all intents and purposes there are no DPs above 10 F anywhere N of the Del Marva? Moreover, the baroclinicity over all spanning some 500 naut miles E of the EC is weak sauce, too. The system has the wind mechanical power, no doubt! But, it's lacking thermodynamics associated with moisture adiabats. I tongue-in-cheeked the metaphor comparing this to an LP supercell (Low Precipitation..) They occur most often in near dry-line mesocyclones, and can sometimes just look like a 10,000' tall rotating column of insidious cloud, occasionally probing a funnel over top a ground dust whirl. Somewhere in the backdrop, a small rain curtain with baseball hail ..otherwise, just a stately rotating cloud spectacle.. This storm is moisture challenged until it's instability and q-v forcing all get out into the Atlantic... It's a race so it were, or will be... A progressive bomb tries to escape before the closing elevated sigma surfaces have a chance to wrap moisture back in to where it could feed into cyclogenesis ..oh and, snow. Not sure who is going to win this race. Going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 gfs_asnow_neus_11.png You must have posted that completely nude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Oh how we love those lollies, over each of our Connecticut counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How is it going to score a coup it's changed every six hours for three runs? Not to me it hasn't. It just so happens to be focusing more and more on the norlun. So what if it's right about the norlun. That would make its QPF output right, so that isn't really a cave if it gives a region wide 6"+ storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah...7-10" is the call. I could care less about the 34 mph wind gusts here. we gust more than 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The stuff over CT isn't purely norlun either I don't think though there is definitely some assist there...the SREF and GFS are producing some pretty intense forcing within the deepening 500 low. Take a look at the 15z RAP...it keeps trending west with the best focus of WAA in the mid-levels...it is losing the focus out to the east in the Atlantic....thus, it wouldn't surprise me if we get clocked later tonight after a brief lull...all that vroticity curling up from the delmarva and tucking in close to the coast isn't really a recipe for a big eastward whiff on the best forcing. There will be a piece out to the east, but I think it has become less dominant on each run over the past 6-12 hours...and this morning on the short-term guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 What a PIA forecast. i think John nailed it.....models are not sure which facet of this set up to give more proxy......bone dry antecedent atmosphere and progressive nature, or the absolute beast in the midlevels arriving over the warm ocean and going nuclear. We'll know in about 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The HRRR is pretty awesome for many back this way - but an ugly looking screw zone outside of the inverted trough and devloping CCB. Nam-like with the screw zone. Oh how we love those lollies, over each of our Connecticut counties. Like little pasties. I'm sticking with 4-6" out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 First flakes of the storm here in Newport. The different models have everything from Norlun bonanza, to right in the shield, to shafted with most of it to the NE. Other than the blizzard, in s ri, we've mostly looked North jealously. What is certain is howling winds and I'm fascinated to see how this works out. I can't pretend to have any insight into how to prefer models as a complete noob, but there's something nice about the fact that weather can always surprise and disappoint. I wish people could recognize how far things have come, but instead with more advances comes more demand for detail, rather than the fact that broadly things are generally well forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Well if the GFS scores the big coup, you should take a bath with a real toaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You must have posted that completely nude. Not yet but I'm pretty happy to be under the brown skid mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not to me it hasn't. It just so happens to be focusing more and more on the norlun. So what if it's right about the norlun. That would make its QPF output right, so that isn't really a cave if it gives a region wide 6"+ storm. Doesn't the Euro already do that, and pretty much has done that for 2+ days without the 1.2 or 1.4" QPF bombs the GFS wanted to throw in? Last night this was a .75 to 1.4" smash all the way to Mount Washington where by this run it's down to less than .25 You're making the argument I used to make to Will at times Euro vs GFS. Just because the GFS "MAY" get one aspect right but overshot for 80% of the rest of the region while the Euro may slightly undershoot for 20% and mostly get the other 80% right.... The GFS had a huge swatch of 1"+ last night at 0z. That's totally gone now. One more run and it'll realize we aren't going to spin a secondary ozone hole off LI this evening, and it should finally cave to the Euro type solution which is, well...not terribly different from what the GFS is providing aside of the magic spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not yet but I'm pretty happy I scrubba dub dubbed the brown skid mark Yea, probably a good idea....but seeing that kind of output must have been startling, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 Doesn't the Euro already do that, and pretty much has done that for 2+ days without the 1.2 or 1.4" QPF bombs the GFS wanted to throw in? Last night this was a .75 to 1.4" smash all the way to Mount Washington where by this run it's down to less than .25 You're making the argument I used to make to Will at times Euro vs GFS. Just because the GFS "MAY" get one aspect right but overshot for 80% of the rest of the region while the Euro may slightly undershoot for 20% and mostly get the other 80% right.... The GFS had a huge swatch of 1"+ last night at 0z. That's totally gone now. One more run and it'll realize we aren't going to spin a secondary ozone hole off LI this evening, and it should finally cave to the Euro type solution which is, well...not terribly different from what the GFS is providing aside of the magic spin. That is what I have been saying. Can't really call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What GFS coup, anyway ... I'm seeing .5 ...maybe .6" QPF in 50 mph winds. Yeah, all dramatic, ...and it'll blow all the snow out to sea. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not yet but I'm pretty happy to be under the brown skid mark how much otg now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 How is it going to score a coup it's changed every six hours for three runs? Which only exemplifies the possible outcome of any model, they all be bobbing. I don't understand why some refuse to acknowledge that, rather some want to jump on little facets with sound reasoning why one thinks the outcome because of xyz variable is as such... people are being to critical. People have no backbone, respect is totally blown away dealing with there precious white gold. For whatever reason I'll never understand, relax, stay safe and enjoy, get through the next 30hrs. 12"+ ORH eastward. Jacks 18-22" FIRM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Last call to enter the forecast contest! http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45715-forecast-contest-214-152015-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 That is what I have been saying. Can't really call it a win. I mean it's not even close, look at the variations run to run...and look at NH and Maine, even Vermont...blizzard last night....hazy sunshine with snow showers today. Win? LOL From this you can see the GFS reached it's maximum craziness two runs ago and is now pressing hard south with the max shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This system truly brings along a tremendous amount of torque energy/mechanics. It's been having difficulty blossoming coherently modeled QPF fields, all along.. . Gee, I wonder why that is.. Could it be because for all intents and purposes there are no DPs above 10 F anywhere N of the Del Marva? Moreover, the baroclinicity over all spanning some 500 naut miles E of the EC is weak sauce, too. The system has the wind mechanical power, no doubt! But, it's lacking thermodynamics associated with moisture adiabats. I tongue-in-cheeked the metaphor comparing this to an LP supercell (Low Precipitation..) They occur most often in near dry-line mesocyclones, and can sometimes just look like a 10,000' tall rotating column of insidious cloud, occasionally probing a funnel over top a ground dust whirl. Somewhere in the backdrop, a small rain curtain with baseball hail ..otherwise, just a stately rotating cloud spectacle.. This storm is moisture challenged until it's instability and q-v forcing all get out into the Atlantic... It's a race so it were, or will be... A progressive bomb tries to escape before the closing elevated sigma surfaces have a chance to wrap moisture back in to where it could feed into cyclogenesis ..oh and, snow. Not sure who is going to win this race. Going to be fun to watch. After a morning low of -8F with a -16F dew, the temp and dew point have quickly rebounded this morning. Temp up to 30.1 and dew up to +16 on a breezy south wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nice look of the warmer air moving north. 6.7/-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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