dryslot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Nam is just awesome from Portsmouth to bar harbor. That's what this storm will do, the rest of us in eastern areas are looking at .4 to maybe .7 with some enhancement. Tauntons numbers are good with ratios. I just don't see the nam as being groundbreaking its latched on to the pummeling of coastal northern new England which was what we knew all along. Now the gfs shifts east some and we have consensus pretty much for a moderate qpf event in eastern SNE, light to moderate away from eastern zones working down. I really don't see this changing a whole heck of a lot from the last day or so as far as the areas that see the heaviest snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 considering its the nam and we cut by 1/3, yes.In rules, we toss. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BOS: 1.1" NE MA: 1.6" PYM: 1.0" ORH: 0.7" TOL: 0.3" 4km 00z NAM through 18z Sunday. I'll take that here in newburyport, verbatim with 12:1 gives me close to 20"! Yes I know....it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 BOS: 1.1" NE MA: 1.6" PYM: 1.0" ORH: 0.7" TOL: 0.3" 4km 00z NAM through 18z Sunday. Wow, that's a lot better than I thought for E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I really don't see this changing a whole heck of a lot from the last day or so as far as the areas that see the heaviest snow 25 miles makes the world of difference for eastern MA. I'm thinking its going to be compromise between the GFS and RGEM/EURO..so somewhere between .6-1" which equates well with the current box MAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Those numbers are all from the 4km nam FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Unless GFS scores a big win, nothing has changed really....besides lowering amounts in CT a tick. Its a high wind off and on snow squall type of system for most in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Will be on the cusp of larger totals here but trending better for SNH and northern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Those numbers are all from the 4km nam FYI. So? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Unless GFS scores a big win, nothing has changed really....besides lowering amounts in CT a tick. Its a high wind off and on snow squall type of system for most in CT. Keep in mind, you are very close to INV Trough and there will be surprises with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Unless GFS scores a big win, nothing has changed really....besides lowering amounts in CT a tick. Its a high wind off and on snow squall type of system for most in CT.In RGEM we trust. Just want to see the 00z run before going 100% in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 SR: I had that same question. Looking at the total QPF versus snowfall amounts its very clear that uses a 10:1 ratio. Amounts in the 4-6 area in CT were all .4-.6 qpf or so. So the snowfall maps would be a bit underdone for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 In RGEM we trust. Just want to see the 00z run before going 100% in. When does RGEM roll out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HullMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 So? Meso scale modeling is known to overdo QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 You should realize you are very close to INV Trough and there will be surprises with that. Agree, If I get in on that... it will be fun and the higher end of my range will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 25 miles makes the world of difference for eastern MA. I'm thinking its going to be compromise between the GFS and RGEM/EURO..so somewhere between .6-1" which equates well with the current box MAP. As it usually does when folks are getting fringed, I would be siding with a RGEM/ Euro combo, I don't even know if i would weigh the GFS, Its pretty much by itself but i bet it cave at 0z towards the other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I think Cape Cod benefits from the further west tracks of the NAM and GFS at the surface with the surface low about 25-50 miles east to northeast of CHH and Provincetown, MA where as the comma head heads back west to southwest into the Cape Cod Bay and Outer Cape Cod, MA. The winds will rip around the system carrying with them the heavier precip. I suspect that the 12z runs later tomorrow will bring the 1.0+" QpF max to Cape Cod, MA to perhaps 1.5" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 When does RGEM roll out Now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 In RGEM we trust. Just want to see the 00z run before going 100% in. We do...which is why I'm just meh with this event for most of us. Wish RGEM looked like GFS but who knows, maybe 0z will tick towards it. Good that your waiting, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dotb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sorry for the OT post guys, but i wouldn't ask if it wasn't my wife and kids. They are heading up to Loon (Lincoln, NH) for their annual long weekend ski trip (I can't go for work reasons) with her friend and friend's kids tomorrow. She's ok driving in snow, but I'd prefer her to avoid any really dangerous, heavy stuff. She was planning to leave Andover around 2:00 p.m. Will that be ok, or should she leave much earlier? I know it's not supposed to be heavy in this area until much later than that, but I have no idea what the timing of this looks like up there. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Meso scale modeling is known to overdo QPFwheel house if it's any good, mesoscale processes will be huge in this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 earlier better if you want to be safe and not worry so much. Sorry for the OT post guys, but i wouldn't ask if it wasn't my wife and kids. They are heading up to Loon (Lincoln, NH) for their annual long weekend ski trip (I can't go for work reasons) with her friend and friend's kids tomorrow. She's ok driving in snow, but I'd prefer her to avoid any really dangerous, heavy stuff. She was planning to leave Andover around 2:00 p.m. Will that be ok, or should she leave much earlier? I know it's not supposed to be heavy in this area until much later than that, but I have no idea what the timing of this looks like up there. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sorry for the OT post guys, but i wouldn't ask if it wasn't my wife and kids. They are heading up to Loon (Lincoln, NH) for their annual long weekend ski trip (I can't go for work reasons) with her friend and friend's kids tomorrow. She's ok driving in snow, but I'd prefer her to avoid any really dangerous, heavy stuff. She was planning to leave Andover around 2:00 p.m. Will that be ok, or should she leave much earlier? I know it's not supposed to be heavy in this area until much later than that, but I have no idea what the timing of this looks like up there. Thanks in advance. We need to know the weight of the car, with all passengers and gear included, and the type of tires. Nah but for real that seems early enough in the day to avoid the beast mode stuff with ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dotb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 earlier better if you want to be safe and not worry so much. I hear that. Problem is she can't check into the hotel until 4:00 p.m., so kind of tough to hang around with 5 kids (only 2 are mine, thankfully )under the age of 7 for too long, so don't want her to leave a whole lot earlier than she needs to either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sorry for the OT post guys, but i wouldn't ask if it wasn't my wife and kids. They are heading up to Loon (Lincoln, NH) for their annual long weekend ski trip (I can't go for work reasons) with her friend and friend's kids tomorrow. She's ok driving in snow, but I'd prefer her to avoid any really dangerous, heavy stuff. She was planning to leave Andover around 2:00 p.m. Will that be ok, or should she leave much earlier? I know it's not supposed to be heavy in this area until much later than that, but I have no idea what the timing of this looks like up there. Thanks in advance. I don't think there is much problem driving up 93 to Loon tomorrow PM. Loon has a NE exposure and I am just guessing but I would think with such high wind and low temperatures they may have to shut down on Sunday because of wind conditions. Possibly Monday AM too. Tough 2 days to ski. Tomorrow is actually the day to get out on the slopes, light winds and light snow in the PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dotb Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 We need to know the weight of the car, with all passengers and gear included, and the type of tires. Nah but for real that seems early enough in the day to avoid the beast mode stuff with ease. LOL. 2013 Honda Pilot and I think her friend has a 2012 Honda Odyssey. Thanks. That's good enough. Again, apologize for the interruption, back to your regularly scheduled programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Sorry for the OT post guys, but i wouldn't ask if it wasn't my wife and kids. They are heading up to Loon (Lincoln, NH) for their annual long weekend ski trip (I can't go for work reasons) with her friend and friend's kids tomorrow. She's ok driving in snow, but I'd prefer her to avoid any really dangerous, heavy stuff. She was planning to leave Andover around 2:00 p.m. Will that be ok, or should she leave much earlier? I know it's not supposed to be heavy in this area until much later than that, but I have no idea what the timing of this looks like up there. Thanks in advance.why not leave earlier just to be safe, hope they are prepared for brutal cold Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Meso scale modeling is known to overdo QPF Well, up until this run it sure wasn't overdoing it here, and still isn't. Maybe it's overdoing it up in ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Bufkit for 18z GFS is pretty crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.