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burgertime

Feb 16th/17th/18th Winter Wx

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If it's too early lock it up.

I think we're close enough now that someone in the SE is going to get something. Besides all of the PBP for the medium range is being dominated by this storm. My last post in the PBP thread. 

 

 

I think there is a real chance this can get too suppressed for us, as I mentioned this a few days back. One thing I would keep in mind is what has happened all winter. We've been rooting for a system to dig in the SW and then eject out....but it just hasn't happened like that so I'm pretty suspicious now of the models digging it so far, not phasing with that cut off in the sw and then going into the meat grinder. Sorry just don't buy it. Not because it's showing a solution I don't want, just that the pattern which hasn't changed really tends to not do that. Typically the energy diving doesn't dive nearly sw enough or experiences sever liftoff once getting into TX. I think the UK probably would be a more likely solution at this point for reality with it's Miller B look as that would fit climo this year. 

 

Of course anything can happen, I would expect Saturday we start getting a clear picture of things. 

 

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6z GEFS is much wetter. Shows a Miller A and most of the SE gets in on the action. From ATL about 2-3 inches just eyeballing it and then it ticks up as you go north. Probably 4-6 for GSP/CLT/CAE and then 6-8 for RDU? ATL is close to a big dog but verbatim it's too warm at both 850's and the surface when the bulk of precip is in. 

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If I'm reading things correctly, the NAM (yeah, I know!) is just about on the cusp of this event in the Deep South. Looks like it's trying to bring moisture in a bit more quickly but along the CMC pattern. Am I correct there? If so, does that reduce the threat of ZR in Ga and the Midlands? 

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6z GFS was dry for many, but the 6z GEFS mean 72-hour precip is much juicier

 

i am certainly not ruling out the GFS, but from all the data I have looked at this morning, the 6z GFS is the only model so dry with the 2nd wave. Sure we need to watch the supression trend of the models as it is possible they could trend that way. Worth noting though that the UKMET which was the most supressed model for the most part actually trended north overnight.

 

ECMWF ENS mean bumped up from around 4 inches to 6 inches at RDU, so nice move there.

post-25-0-63478100-1423827051_thumb.gif

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6z GFS was dry for many, but the 6z GEFS mean 72-hour precip is much juicier

 

i am certainly not ruling out the GFS, but from all the data I have looked at this morning, the 6z GFS is the only model so dry with the 2nd wave. Sure we need to watch the supression trend of the models as it is possible they could trend that way. Worth noting though that the UKMET which was the most supressed model for the most part actually trended north overnight.

 

ECMWF ENS mean bumped up from around 4 inches to 6 inches at RDU, so nice move there.

 

Just curious Allan, do yo buy that cutoff in the SW retrograding the way the GFS shows? I feel like the models kept doing that with this spinning cutoffs but in reality they always move east fast. First time for everything I suppose but what the models showed overnight outside I just don't know if I buy this suppressed or even Miller A track. 

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6z GEFS looks great, so does the 0z EPS. The normally progressive NAVGEM 6z run looks great. Will see. The 6z GFS completely missed phase with baja low, one reason it was dryer. I like where we sit to be honest, 4-5 days out what would you want to see right now?

Good luck with this thread Burger, the pressure is on for you to bring the mojo.

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Just curious Allan, do yo buy that cutoff in the SW retrograding the way the GFS shows? I feel like the models kept doing that with this spinning cutoffs but in reality they always move east fast. First time for everything I suppose but what the models showed overnight outside I just don't know if I buy this suppressed or even Miller A track. 

 

The SW cut-offs are always tricky. I certainly felt 24-48 hours ago any trend would likely be NW as opposed to more SE with the general seasonal pattern and also still the lack of any strong blocking. We do get a 50/50 low in place for a bit although it moves out quickly. Usually with timing, if your timing is off, down here at least, it means a NW trend and rainier, but that may not be the case with this event.

 

All I will say is from looking at the data, the 6z op GFS is the ONLY, model showing such a dry solution.  In looking at the GEFS members at hour 108 i see 3 or 4 of the 20 that look dry like the op GFS. None of the ECMWF members are as dry.

 

So for now I think we give the GFS solution notice, but count it a dry outlier as of now. Of course the 12z suite could trend that way so we will have to watch.

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The SW cut-offs are always tricky. I certainly felt 24-48 hours ago any trend would likely be NW as opposed to more SE with the general seasonal pattern and also still the lack of any strong blocking. We do get a 50/50 low in place for a bit although it moves out quickly. Usually with timing, if your timing is off, down here at least, it means a NW trend and rainier, but that may not be the case with this event.

 

All I will say is from looking at the data, the 6z op GFS is the ONLY, model showing such a dry solution.  In looking at the GEFS members at hour 108 i see 3 or 4 of the 20 that look dry like the op GFS. None of the ECMWF members are as dry.

 

So for now I think we give the GFS solution notice, but count it a dry outlier as of now. Of course the 12z suite could trend that way so we will have to watch.

 

Thanks, I'm thinking we probably get the suppressed solutions all day today from the main runs. Seems to be how it usually goes in these situations. 

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The SW cut-offs are always tricky. I certainly felt 24-48 hours ago any trend would likely be NW as opposed to more SE with the general seasonal pattern and also still the lack of any strong blocking. We do get a 50/50 low in place for a bit although it moves out quickly. Usually with timing, if your timing is off, down here at least, it means a NW trend and rainier, but that may not be the case with this event.

 

All I will say is from looking at the data, the 6z op GFS is the ONLY, model showing such a dry solution.  In looking at the GEFS members at hour 108 i see 3 or 4 of the 20 that look dry like the op GFS. None of the ECMWF members are as dry.

 

So for now I think we give the GFS solution notice, but count it a dry outlier as of now. Of course the 12z suite could trend that way so we will have to watch.

Majority of the members look great, best grouping yet.

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And for now that is very important. Of course that could change with new model runs :-)Sent from my iPhone

The CMC-ENS looked great too, although I wouldn't mind a tick south on it. The 3rd Boston blizzard for this Sat/Sun is such a big player in our potential event I wouldn't be surprised if it's Sat before we see a consensus.

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Let's see how the GFS is doing with the blizzard on Sunday....

Edit: So from 102 hours out, roughly day 4, the GFS was almost a complete whiff for Boston, 2-3". Today's run shows 18" of snow for Boston.

0z run on 2/11 (102 hours out for 12z Sunday)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015021100&fh=102

6z run for today (48 hours out for 12z Sunday)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015021306&fh=48&xpos=0&ypos=204

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GSP

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE REMAIN VERY ACTIVE WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. IT APPEARS ONE OF THE GREATEST FORECAST
CHALLENGES WILL BE THE P-TYPE AND QPF ASSOCIATED WITH A EARLY WEEK
DEEP SOUTH LOW. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS START OFF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NC MTNS MON MORNING. BASED
ON THE MODEL AGREEMENT...I WILL INDICATE CHC TO SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
MTNS...WITH LIGHT ACCUMS.

THE 0Z-6Z MODEL RUNS FOR THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER TOO MUCH TO INVEST
IN WHOLESALE FORECAST CHANGES WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF INCREASING POPS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
GFS INDICATES MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS...AS A MILLER A TRACKS FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. I WILL TREND POPS BACK SLIGHTLY ON
TUESDAY...BUT INDICATING A LONG WINDOW OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MTNS
AND I-40 CORRIDOR. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT YIELD SNOW...THEN THE GFS
INDICATES ANOTHER SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH
THIS SYSTEM THE ECMWF IS DRY. AGAIN...A COMPROMISE WILL BE USED. THE
ONLY CERTAINTY WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THAT TEMPS WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

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The EPS mean still jackpots western NC and most of TN with 6-9".  Pretty much all of NC is 2" or greater, central NC is 4-6".  Northern half of GA/SC are also 2-6".   This assume everything is snow as a lot may be ice.  

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The EPS mean still jackpots western NC and most of TN with 6-9".  Pretty much all of NC is 2" or greater, central NC is 4-6".  Northern half of GA/SC are also 2-6".   This assume everything is snow as a lot may be ice.  

 

I kind of lean more towards a snow to sleet/ZR then back to snow scenario...IF we end up with a wetter more amped solution. 

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The EPS mean still jackpots western NC and most of TN with 6-9". Pretty much all of NC is 2" or greater, central NC is 4-6". Northern half of GA/SC are also 2-6". This assume everything is snow as a lot may be ice.

eps mean is wet for sw nc and north georgia

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So - just to recap from last nights/this morning's runs - in general, is it 6z GFS vs. Euro, CMC, UKMET, and Ensembles?

 

That pretty much sums it up at this point. The 00Z Euro was fairly suppressed but it still gives most of the SE a pretty big hit.

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The evolution of the EPS mean in 24 hours is insane. A lot of suppressed and weaker lows that ride just off the coast (good for NC, some of the strongest snow members are just weak 1000-1004mb slow movers) with a lot of them forming secondary lows along with it. The 00z 24 hours ago was way inland and cranked up. At this point we'd want any kind of SE trend to stop. We've got it on the ensembles exactly where we want it.

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Just thinking back to this past Monday. 96+ hours out it GFS has no precip, positively tilted trough tracking south of us, 24-48 hours out it starts to cut off, go negative, next thing you know we have hours and hours of cold rain from a deform band sitting over us.

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6z DGEX , ( I know) looks luscious , especially from about Athens to GSP to Rock Hill and as south as CAE, not much from NC/SC border north. The jackpot of above mentioned areas

is 10-15 inches!

 

Congrats ATL 

 

 

ODhEhdml.gif

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Wonder why the ensembles look so much better than the ops now.

Because some of the tweaks to the physics of the various ensemble members result in significant systems. 

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