WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I wouldn't discount any model solution. It's still too far out. UKIE might have been on this one early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12/26/10. Just saying. The 500h pattern for the 12/26/10 was in a different world from this one. We might get missed to the south, but the pattern is way, way different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So much for ensembles lookinf great. There was a 10 percent chance of the op having this solution this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKIE might have been on this one early I still wouldn't discount any solution this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's not really that. The vort digs further south so the track shifted accordingly. OK, thanks. Was just curious if "too much" confluence from that was causing the vort to push offshore without turning the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 There's gonna be a ton of rationalizing how suppressed is better for us at this point.... I sure hope it hits us. I don't know if I can care anymore if it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 500h pattern for the 12/26/10 was in a different world from this one. We might get missed to the south, but the pattern is way, way different. Fair enough, just my weenie memory of all the ways we can miss snow as the end result, however we get to the miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKIE might have been on this one early Typical storm for us. Looks bad...looks better...looks great...looks bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I still wouldn't discount any solution this early. I just hope at this time tomorrow we still have a good solution to pick. There's a trend showing here, even if we don't want to admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 QPF for the last four runs of the GFS at MRB: 00Z- 0.70" 06Z- 0.65" 12Z- 0.35" 18Z- < 0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 nothing this year has stayed south of us that was within 5 days....nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Typical storm for us. Looks bad...looks better...looks great...looks bad... I hope those 3 dots mean there's more to your story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We all knew it had to move east to make sure BOS gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 nothing this year has stayed south of us that was within 5 days....nothing That's probably true. Dec 19 was never a storm except on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Now the dreaded wait for the 00z runs. Such a brutal gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 nothing this year has stayed south of us that was within 5 days....nothingit hasn't snowed either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 QPF for the last four runs of the GFS at MRB: 00Z- 0.70" 06Z- 0.65" 12Z- 0.35" 18Z- < 0.10" What are 5 letter words that start with a "T", Alex? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's not really staying south but moving east...it still comes up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's not really staying south but moving east...it still comes up the coast... Its south initially so thats why it translates to being further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Its south initially so thats why it translates to being further east Yes. Just a sad turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gotta remember-present all scenarios/cover all bases. Nothing to worry about. Solid high pressure would cause the drawings to move things south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yes. Just a sad turn of events. Buck up now. All this run did was keep us grounded. Long way to go. This isn't like the Super Bowl storm that got yanked at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yes. Just a sad turn of events. Dude.....it's 125 hrs on the 18z GFS, given the seasonal trend this is a great run. I'm more concerned we end up with rain still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Dude.....it's 125 hrs on the 18z GFS, given the seasonal trend this is a great run. I'm more concerned we end up with rain still. LOL...I'd rather have rain on top of snow that I would partly cloudy on top of sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks too weak, outlier, better solutions at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Dude.....it's 125 hrs on the 18z GFS, given the seasonal trend this is a great run. I'm more concerned we end up with rain still.I dunno. I've mentioned like 3 times now another 'trend' is faster and flatter. Could be the case here.That said I'd still rather see this than a strong west solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It would be good comedy. I don't even like late season snow much so it's tempting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Well, it's simple, if this storm is going to happen, then we will see the trend for a bigger storm to hit many areas, but if we get half you know what solutons, chances of this storm happening won't. I keep going back to the indices and who's getting the most snows, especially NAO being positive is the very reason why most of these threats haven't turned out great. So, you have to think how this winter has gone to date. What could end up happening is that we may not get anything the rest of the winter with constant close calls. I hope that's not the case. Anyway, just some of what I'm thinking about this winter and trying to see why this time we can finally get a real winter storm. I really hope this comes together nicely and we all cash in.. As that line says SHOW ME THE STORM models... Kind of like that movie. Anyway, I wouldn't put much stock in the 18z or 6z runs.. But yeh, I know some of you will scour these model runs and hope we finally get the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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