N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm comparing exact time frames...60hr of qpf this run vs previous. There's no 1.5 stripe for that period like there was previous runs. Hi res has the death band over the south shore for a time before it resets up over and near you. Spreads the wealth a bit so nobody gets super jacked it does push the "death band" a few miles east in Essex county of where it was set up previously, I have been watching for any gyrations becoming trends. we do already have approx. .3 or so fallen by 7am (12z) for large part of area so that to has to be accounted for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I never liked the huge totals anyways, but I don't think the NAM cutting back a tenth or so is a huge deal. With that said...72hr QPF from the 40km NAM (yeah it's not 12km or 4km but you get the idea) 12z 72hr 6z 78hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 it does push the "death band" a few miles east in Essex county of where it was set up previously, I have been watching for any gyrations becoming trends. we do already have approx. .3 or so fallen by 7am (12z) for large part of area so that to has to be accounted for. Look away from the rgem....full eye aversion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Watch for a quick temp spike along S shore into mid 30's starting early pm into evening (building west) before collapsing back SE slowly after 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah add about 0.3" of QPF to whatever the runs show for the ORH-BOS corridor, because that is the QPF that has fallen prior to 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Look away from the rgem....full eye aversion Is it bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Is it bad? Focus is Boston south through about 24 hours and then it begins to develop the band north similar to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Look away from the rgem....full eye aversion I have never pulled the rgem up on my computer Hi Res nam and BTV WRF I am liking Jerry's hood a bit better in the last 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 We're only talking QPF past 12z on both runs. Why do we need to add QPF already fallen to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I just don't see it with this storm. Hope I'm wrong but I think we see another trim job across the suite just like the nam which is very pedestrian. Shifted weaker/south again. Euro will cave this runI'm not sure how much of a rim job it is considering what we got last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 We're only talking QPF past 12z on both runs. Why do we need to add QPF already fallen to it? Yeah your maps made sense if you looked at the time-stamps. Literally identical up here, if anything N.NY is wetter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 We're only talking QPF past 12z on both runs. Why do we need to add QPF already fallen to it? He was originally saying total QPF...72h vs 60h...the 12 hours lost is QPF fallen....if you are comparing after 7am, then its fine, but the original comparison of 72h vs 60h would have lost the 12 hours of QPF fallen already. I dunno, that's how it sounded to me...but I really don't care anyway. The 1.5-2" bullseyes have always seemed overdone to me. I've been more on the 12-16 train rather than 20"+...but I guess we'll see what happens over the next 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 So the only change is a trim in qpf which was abnormally high on some models. Doesn't this trend to happen for most events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 He was originally saying total QPF...72h vs 60h...the 12 hours lost is QPF fallen....if you are comparing after 7am, then its fine, but the original comparison of 72h vs 60h would have lost the 12 hours of QPF fallen already. I dunno, that's how it sounded to me...but I really don't care anyway. The 1.5-2" bullseyes have always seemed overdone to me. I've been more on the 12-16 train rather than 20"+...but I guess we'll see what happens over the next 18 hours. I've always...always compared same time frame panels whether it's today or 1994 we are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 So the only change is a trim in qpf which was abnormally high on some models. Doesn't this trend to happen for most events? Yes...esp on hi res models...the ol' 2/3rds rule we always called it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm not sure how much of a rim job it is considering what we got last night. Well I can't speak to that.... Just comparing same time frame panels. Will see how the rest of the suite rolls. Rgem still has the band reforming over the city area by 8am tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yes...esp on hi res models...the ol' 2/3rds rule we always called it. which is why I mentioned box maps were a bit "off" calling for widespread 18-24. Wasn't sure what the logic was unless they take meso qpf verbatim. They still are that high I think people here get confused that during an event like this when we are glued to the screens, you tend to want to watch trends closely , ESP meso events like this , and discussion of said trends is very important to many, otherwise what are some ppl logging on for during the storm for 10 straight hours. , ppl to post "it's snowing, high 5 me". If you just like a good snow, go out in it. I know for those not in areas where meso bands are forecast, it gets annoying , partially bc they are not in the big snow and partially bc they are comparing what they have to what the "complainers" are getting and are like enough, but you have to see things from another posters perspective because this Is more IMBY of a storm than most given Meso processes. I'm sure the pro's shake their heads to because they see this as beating details to death while they prob have a better handle on how it is playing out and don't need to take so much time to process it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 20+ will be very localized if it does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 He was originally saying total QPF...72h vs 60h...the 12 hours lost is QPF fallen....if you are comparing after 7am, then its fine, but the original comparison of 72h vs 60h would have lost the 12 hours of QPF fallen already. I dunno, that's how it sounded to me...but I really don't care anyway. The 1.5-2" bullseyes have always seemed overdone to me. I've been more on the 12-16 train rather than 20"+...but I guess we'll see what happens over the next 18 hours. Yeah...like I said, I didn't like the widespread huge totals either and I don't think a 0.10" cut is a big deal. I've been leaning 8-10"...maybe spot 12" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Well I can't speak to that.... Just comparing same time frame panels. Will see how the rest of the suite rolls. Rgem still has the band reforming over the city area by 8am tomorrow The wildcard is tomorrow. And late tonight. Also, totals verifying are not going to feel the same. For example I'm now around 4-5. Let's say I get that about today and tonight and again the same tomorrow and 3 tomorrow night. Big totals but not big rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 which is why I mentioned box maps were a bit "off" calling for widespread 18-24. Yes, I think that is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Are we done with snow until evening now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 FRWEATHA temps are pretty much as modeled for SE mass Hi res nam has you inching toward 32-33 for most of day 12z Hi Res Nam has CF a hair East of it's previous runs tonight, Almost oscillating a cpl miles either side of back bay and West Peabody 2pm it takes temps into 36 or So by Scituate and starts creepin them west along S shore then by 7pm it begins to slide back SE CF looks a bit more N-S oriented and tightest gradient in Norfolk County That is the final nail in my coffin. Cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 20+ will be very localized if it does happen. But if it happens to be over the back bay it will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yes, I think that is overdone. I said last night I thought 10-16" out here might be 50% overdone. Got to make up a lot of ground tonight and tomorrow to hit the low end of that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah...like I said, I didn't like the widespread huge totals either and I don't think a 0.10" cut is a big deal. I've been leaning 8-10"...maybe spot 12" here. And it's going to seem like less with the duration of it. But I personally kind of like these events once in a while. I love heavy rates, but there is something to be said for the wintry appeal of days of currier and ives snow. I would probably go insane if it was like that every event (like in Ithaca, NY...snows all day and you get 3", lol), but it's nice when you've already got a huge deep snowpack and have been spoiled with some intense storms. The one time to watch is tonight...that's where we'll see if any larger totals will be realistic because there will be some better lift moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah I'm not sure I'm buying the 14-18'' or 18-24'' widespread away from the CF enhanced zones. Probably about 3ish'' on the ground here as of now and I wouldn't go any more than 4-8'' for the rest of SNE outside the CF zones in E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 But if it happens to be over the back bay it will be huge. Yeah of course. The duration in a narrow area is what to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Mets.. Are you thinking snow starts back up around 4:00-5:00 today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Mets.. Are you thinking snow starts back up around 4:00-5:00 today? That would be my guess for your area up thru W Central mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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