N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 BOX cut back totals to more like what they were yesterday, but could just be subtracting off what already fell. Same map since 3 am brother I'd watch for the REAL cut back around 4pm (at least that is when I've seen it update a few times before) will be on look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Same map since 3 am brother I'd watch for the REAL cut back around 4pm (at least that is when I've seen it update a few times before) will be on look out That's a different map from the 3 AM one, the 3 AM one had a much wider swath of 18-24 and had 14-18 all across MA and into CT as well. Looks like a ~4" cutback across the board which is reasonable. Perhaps clear your cache if you're not seeing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 we snow Sums it up. I've grown weary of the snow-mongers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 kudos to the mets yesterday who thought this wasnt gonna produce widespread big numbers......qpf queens or not, most locations have been cut by 50 pct already....and some of the sharper more realistic minds here also expressed concerns about poor snow growth....unlike the last system which tossed us a bone at the end, i just dont see this one surprising in a good way Been getting slowly bumped up imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 That's a different map from the 3 AM one, the 3 AM one had a much wider swath of 18-24 and had 14-18 all across MA and into CT as well. Looks like a ~4" cutback across the board which is reasonable. Perhaps clear your cache if you're not seeing it? Yeah, I think this is the afternoon update. Usually see it around 3:30 or 3:45 but might have been early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It's early because of the press conference. Definitely a new map. Sent from my KFTHWI using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The warning was also updated by BOX in the past half hour. Total includes what already fell, so I guess another 6 to 14/ 14 to 20 still, which is in line with the earlier warning. * Snow accumulations...total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches expected through early Tuesday morning. A localized heavier band of 18 to 24 inches remains possible from near Boston and into northeast Massachusetts. * Timing...steady snow re-develops late this afternoon and early this evening. Heaviest snow falls from tonight into Monday evening. Snow may be falling at 1 to 2 inches per hour near the I-95 corridor during the Monday morning rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Same map since 3 am brother I'd watch for the REAL cut back around 4pm (at least that is when I've seen it update a few times before) will be on look out Yup--outside of Boston/NS/SS, I'm thinking we'll see lots of 4-6 and 6-10 with the highest amounts in MA, lower in CT/RI. 17.5/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 That's a different map from the 3 AM one, the 3 AM one had a much wider swath of 18-24 and had 14-18 all across MA and into CT as well. Looks like a ~4" cutback across the board which is reasonable. Perhaps clear your cache if you're not seeing it? I Stand corrected. 138pm time stamp. Agree not much different for many areas. ESP CF "jack" thou they just sharpened up the grids as they seem more confident of where band will set up. I'll Be nude if that happens. 4.2 has fallen here compacted to 3.5 as of 3 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Still the event hasn't changed that much imo. Lets let the precip move into this pm and see what shakes out tonight. I love talking about model trends and things of that nature, but you can't spike the football on big totals prior and ditto to low totals IMO either. Ya I mean I never thought 1.2 QPF where you are had a chance in hell of happening so i'm not surprised it cut back. Ditto Gyx/Box maps if peeps expected those totals then yes they will prob be disappointed but man there is a lot to go with this thing, ramps up next few hours. The last couple of events I personally have had an issues with some of our maps. It's like we're forecasting the maximum amounts, trying to make sure all snow reports fall at or below our values. Rather than forecasting the most likely and mentioning isolated higher amounts. We talk about lollis on this board for a reason, because they are few and far between and the vast majority of people won't see those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Boston Public Schools closed Monday and Tuesday via Mayor Walsh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The last couple of events I personally have had an issues with some of our maps. It's like we're forecasting the maximum amounts, trying to make sure all snow reports fall at or below our values. Rather than forecasting the most likely and mentioning isolated higher amounts. We talk about lollis on this board for a reason, because they are few and far between and the vast majority of people won't see those totals. It seems that way at all WFOs around here. Every event this winter we have been under the NWS predictions - sometimes by a factor of 2! It almost seems like there's a CYA mentality with these maps? Better to have a big city at 2 ft just in case they get there?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 they had to do it early....that other map was uptonesque....and thats not being a debbie, i want to be buried even more than 40/70!! and theres plenty of room for it out here regardless of what anyone says, just back in 11 we had depths more than double the current depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It seems that way at all WFOs around here. Every event this winter we have been under the NWS predictions - sometimes by a factor of 2! It almost seems like there's a CYA mentality with these maps? Better to have a big city at 2 ft just in case they get there?? Same thing with headlines. There is this pressure to fire warnings/advisories out 24+ hours in advance. Not too long ago it was common to hold watches until the snow was just 12 hours away. I'm not sure what is producing that pressure though. Maybe knowing that somebody will have a map out on social media ASAP, so we have to match? To paraphrase Kevin, we should start conservative and adjust up if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 BOX cut back totals to more like what they were yesterday, but could just be subtracting off what already fell. Latest(17z) RAP agrees with latest map. Brings .6-.7 qpf by 6 am to eastern zones in MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Same thing with headlines. There is this pressure to fire warnings/advisories out 24+ hours in advance. Not too long ago it was common to hold watches until the snow was just 12 hours away. I'm not sure what is producing that pressure though. Maybe knowing that somebody will have a map out on social media ASAP, so we have to match? To paraphrase Kevin, we should start conservative and adjust up if needed. so glad someone mentioned the early headlines!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 maybe whoever is in charge told them to push the hype envelope like accuwx and twc does....maybe grocery store or gas station kickbacks...really how has this come to fruition?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Boston Public Schools closed Monday and Tuesday via Mayor Walsh. What weenies. Any intelligent person might say we're closed tomorrow and will make an assessment regarding Tuesday when we have more knowledge of what the situation will be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Same thing with headlines. There is this pressure to fire warnings/advisories out 24+ hours in advance. Not too long ago it was common to hold watches until the snow was just 12 hours away. I'm not sure what is producing that pressure though. Maybe knowing that somebody will have a map out on social media ASAP, so we have to match? To paraphrase Kevin, we should start conservative and adjust up if needed. Seems like we've done a 180. I used to grimace at the stuff I saw from the media... Early/hyped up snow maps while the nws was more restrained. Now we actually are feeling the pressure to put out a map since the nws is throwing out numbers so early. Really odd change since I started in 05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Definitely a Nowcast event wrt where coastal front sets up Best chance areas from current obs and 12z RGEM as well as RPM models seem North shore including inside 95 Boston metro including inside 128 down to Canton-Stoughton-Norwood I assume it's surface frontogenesis we are looking at where the forcing occurs. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Starting to wonder if the there's not a secondary band along the SCT LI axis as the MIDS go under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yea, it should march back nw soon.....I think by around 4-5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 maybe whoever is in charge told them to push the hype envelope like accuwx and twc does....maybe grocery store or gas station kickbacks...really how has this come to fruition?? We're definitely trending away from the forecast and more towards support services in the NWS. To do that however, you're putting more and more information out there earlier and earlier. At the same time it's hard to convey uncertainty at days 4 and 5, so everything is taken as fact. So the forecast in essence locks in at that point and we're on a runaway train. I understand the mentality around here to find ways the forecast can bust to make it snow, but I get the sense that a lot of colleagues of mine do the same while ignoring the caution flags. Maybe I'm turning into a crusty forecaster already. Get off my lawn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Starting to wonder if the there's not a secondary band along the SCT LI axis as the MIDS go under There will be surprises yet with this. I expect reports of kitchen sink falling next few hrs near s ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just realized totals from NWS maps include Saturday snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMPhysicsTeacher Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Any thoughts on the cf coming further back to 495? It is variable wind at the moment out in Dracut; wouldn't a stronger onshore be able to reach further in? The dry air is saturating again as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Wish I was back in my old stomping grounds at DXR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 We're definitely trending away from the forecast and more towards support services in the NWS. To do that however, you're putting more and more information out there earlier and earlier. At the same time it's hard to convey uncertainty at days 4 and 5, so everything is taken as fact. So the forecast in essence locks in at that point and we're on a runaway train. I understand the mentality around here to find ways the forecast can bust to make it snow, but I get the sense that a lot of colleagues of mine do the same while ignoring the caution flags. Maybe I'm turning into a crusty forecaster already. Get off my lawn! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 There will be surprises yet with this. I expect reports of kitchen sink falling next few hrs near s ct Definitely will be a mixed bag of $hit until the better dynamics come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Any thoughts on the cf coming further back to 495? It is variable wind at the moment out in Dracut; wouldn't a stronger onshore be able to reach further in? The dry air is saturating again as well. You'll be well west of the CF in Dracut. I don't see it penetrating too far inland N of BOS. Probably pegged right along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.