Superstorm Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It is strange considering most of us have had near or above normal snowfall to date. But people always want more...especially when they see others (BOS) getting a lot. It's like money. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 when the temp dropped yesterday late afternoon, it really didn't take long to ice up. At 6pm my wife and i went to a softball meeting and i almost fell on my azz. While in the meeting it turned to snow and it was still snowing when i went to bed at 11. i didn't measure, but eye balling 1". I'm spending more for these piddly Azz events then i would for a major storm. When it rains, then freezes, then snows on top of that is a nightmare and i end up using more salt/cinders then normal. Sad event for you Millersville peeps this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think the negativity stems from not getting something that people think they're entitled to. When nearby cities get hit with huge snowfalls that miss them, they feel as if they were slighted somehow. When it happens repeatedly, the angst only multiplies. Call it jealousy, frustration, bitterness...whatever, but snow brings out the best and worst in people depending on whether or not they get snow at their location. Another thing...in my area, our longtime average is about one, 12' snow per decade. Having been born in 1965, I experienced foot-plus snows in '78, '79, and '83. 3 large storms in 18 years. I then went another decade until the Superstorm of '93 dropped 18" in Lancaster. That started an unprecedented stretch of major snows in '96, '03, and 3 more in '09-'10. That's 6 more in 17 years...which is WAY above what I should even dream of expecting. Problem is, many on this board have "grown up" during this stretch in areas like NYC and Philly that don't understand that what they've grown up with is NOT typical. We have a bunch of spoiled people in some of our neighboring forums that expect a 2' snowstorm several times a winter. And when it doesn't happen, it further pisses off people that haven't had any such storms in years, which is understandable. At any rate, for those that care...Eric Horst said that from the 12th (Thursday) to the 19th will define our winter down here. He's saying we have near-record cold and multiple snow threats in this period. Let's see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think the negativity stems from not getting something that people think they're entitled to. When nearby cities get hit with huge snowfalls that miss them, they feel as if they were slighted somehow. When it happens repeatedly, the angst only multiplies. Call it jealousy, frustration, bitterness...whatever, but snow brings out the best and worst in people depending on whether or not they get snow at their location. Another thing...in my area, our longtime average is about one, 12' snow per decade. Having been born in 1965, I experienced foot-plus snows in '78, '79, and '83. 3 large storms in 18 years. I then went another decade until the Superstorm of '93 dropped 18" in Lancaster. That started an unprecedented stretch of major snows in '96, '03, and 3 more in '09-'10. That's 6 more in 17 years...which is WAY above what I should even dream of expecting. Problem is, many on this board have "grown up" during this stretch in areas like NYC and Philly that don't understand that what they've grown up with is NOT typical. We have a bunch of spoiled people in some of our neighboring forums that expect a 2' snowstorm several times a winter. And when it doesn't happen, it further pisses off people that haven't had any such storms in years, which is understandable. At any rate, for those that care...Eric Horst said that from the 12th (Thursday) to the 19th will define our winter down here. He's saying we have near-record cold and multiple snow threats in this period. Let's see what happens... Well said..... like many/most here in the winter...i/we like snow, but just because my back yard doesnt have 12"+ on the meter from Nov-March, doesnt make me get down on it and cry over it. Its the freakin weather anyone that know anything about it, should know that just because you live in a certain local in PA or surrounding states...you are still not entitled to anything. NYC to Boston....good for you. last year south of the mason dixon...fantastic march. Last week the rockies were in the 70's.... If memory serves whistler had snow problems for the Olympics. Just cause you see pics on TV of mounds of snow....noone is reporting how little snow is in other parts of the country, and I do not want to see those pics. I'll take what i got and be happy. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Watch this weekend's inverted trough carefully. Could be a narrow band of prolonged light-to-moderate snow somewhere in PA. Wherever that inverted trough sets up could see a "surprise" 4-6 inches, especially with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 NWS's new adaptive forecast page is really nice. Still in beta but working great on the iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 NWS's new adaptive forecast page is really nice. Still in beta but working great on the iPhone. Haven't seen it, but is that the one where if you like snow it shows a forecast for 12" with howling winds, and sunny with mild temps if you hate snow? Very nice indeed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That'd be great Mallow, I'm all in for a nice advisory snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Haven't seen it, but is that the one where if you like snow it shows a forecast for 12" with howling winds, and sunny with mild temps if you hate snow? Very nice indeed! well played... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Haven't seen it, but is that the one where if you like snow it shows a forecast for 12" with howling winds, and sunny with mild temps if you hate snow? Very nice indeed! Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Watch this weekend's inverted trough carefully. Could be a narrow band of prolonged light-to-moderate snow somewhere in PA. Wherever that inverted trough sets up could see a "surprise" 4-6 inches, especially with good ratios.The 12z GFS would be a nice NORLUN event. Great low level flow of Atlantic moisture into the zone of low level convergence and elevated lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I would love to lock in the 12z GFS for the LSV for the weekend system and the storm next Tues/Wed. This weekend it puts down 3-6 inches, which could possibly be more with ratios. Next week it puts down another 4-6 inches. Clown map at 240 hours shows 8-12 in. across the LSV. Sign me up please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think the negativity stems from not getting something that people think they're entitled to. When nearby cities get hit with huge snowfalls that miss them, they feel as if they were slighted somehow. When it happens repeatedly, the angst only multiplies. Call it jealousy, frustration, bitterness...whatever, but snow brings out the best and worst in people depending on whether or not they get snow at their location. Another thing...in my area, our longtime average is about one, 12' snow per decade. Having been born in 1965, I experienced foot-plus snows in '78, '79, and '83. 3 large storms in 18 years. I then went another decade until the Superstorm of '93 dropped 18" in Lancaster. That started an unprecedented stretch of major snows in '96, '03, and 3 more in '09-'10. That's 6 more in 17 years...which is WAY above what I should even dream of expecting. Problem is, many on this board have "grown up" during this stretch in areas like NYC and Philly that don't understand that what they've grown up with is NOT typical. We have a bunch of spoiled people in some of our neighboring forums that expect a 2' snowstorm several times a winter. And when it doesn't happen, it further pisses off people that haven't had any such storms in years, which is understandable. At any rate, for those that care...Eric Horst said that from the 12th (Thursday) to the 19th will define our winter down here. He's saying we have near-record cold and multiple snow threats in this period. Let's see what happens... great post my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 These storms are kind of like snow/sex you get promised 4 days out that your going to get some. And at the last minute you get told....whoah never mind, event canceled. Who wouldn't be disappointed?Sheesh Hey at least we have some snow events heading our way. Everyone who shares their thoughts on the storms, your thoughts are much appreciated!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 12z GFS would be a nice NORLUN event. Great low level flow of Atlantic moisture into the zone of low level convergence and elevated lapse rates. Exactly! As for next week's storm... it's really quite a ways a way still, but I'm actually concerned (again) about warmth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Maytown made a great post, but I can say without a doubt, no one in this forum has been that bad. There may be joking around and getting on NYC people, but it's hardly a major problem in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Exactly! As for next week's storm... it's really quite a ways a way still, but I'm actually concerned (again) about warmth... Hearing that HM is talking about NAO trending to the minus side. Watch....we'll get a full on -NAO for the spring. Me - I'll take blocking for $1000.00 please..... Mr. Sajak - I'm sorry...blocking isn't one of the options Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Exactly! As for next week's storm... it's really quite a ways a way still, but I'm actually concerned (again) about warmth... I think until this pattern shifts, you have to believe that the weather will bring the warmth. Joe was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Haven't seen it, but is that the one where if you like snow it shows a forecast for 12" with howling winds, and sunny with mild temps if you hate snow? Very nice indeed! Where can I find said forecast??? Oh wait, Denver, Colorado.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Where can I find said forecast??? Oh wait, Denver, Colorado.... Ha! Funny you should mention Denver. My son is spending his first "winter" in Denver and so have been following their weather pretty closely. I used to live there myself and really can't believe how incredibly mild it's been out there. Wild temperature swings are nothing new for Denver, but for them to be this mild for such an extended period is unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think until this pattern shifts, you have to believe that the weather will bring the warmth. Joe was right. Generally agree, however with the projected cold for the next 10 days any precip should have some excellent ratios - probably in the 20:1 range. So it won't take a wound up low to give us some decent totals. Decent to me at this point is 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 2 in this pattern is my bar for success, and high end advisory would be a major win. Also would like to see an LSV special where they get a solid 3 to 6 to get the totals up. This year it seems like that may be like pulling teeth unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 maybe i should keep my eye on Thursday, thinking of a Millersville run after work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Have fun with the look before it moderates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I find no fun in that image at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 time to bring in the brass monkeys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM wants to spin up something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW GEFS MEAN 925 MB TEMPS OF ARND -18C = -0.4 F LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Saturday's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE ONE OF THE COLDEST DAYS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW GEFS MEAN 925 MB TEMPS OF ARND -18C = -0.4 F LIKELY SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPS NO BETTER THAN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=CTP&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Saturday's storm yet Sunday/Monday will be colder... I think the worst part about the forecast for the next 5 days (Thursday through Monday) is how windy it will be for such a long duration...value wise temperatures may not hit record cold numbers at locations with long term records but wind chills for the next few days are just going to be brutal. Would not surprise me to see schools with at least delays Friday and Monday due to the cold. We would probably be looking at highs and lows 5-10 degrees colder if this airmass moved through in mid-January than mid-February. Having the 1000-500mb thickness drop below 500dm Sunday morning is 4 standard deviations below normal compared to climatology! Current top 10 highs in 2015 for MDT - 49, 43, 42, 42, 41, 41, 40, 40, 39, 39 It is silly and really does not mean much but here are the current rankings for latest first 50 degree day in a calendar year for Harrisburg: 1963 (March 10), 1968 (March 4), 1941 (March 3), 1923 (March 2), 1987 (March 1), 1910/1902/1895 (Feb 27), 1936 (Feb 25), 1958 (Feb 24), 1994/1971 (Feb 18), 1948/1912 (Feb 17), 1945/1918 (Feb 12), 2015/1977 (Feb 11) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 yet Sunday/Monday will be colder... I think the worst part about the forecast for the next 5 days (Thursday through Monday) is how windy it will be for such a long duration...value wise temperatures may not hit record cold numbers at locations with long term records but wind chills for the next few days are just going to be brutal. Would not surprise me to see schools with at least delays Friday and Monday due to the cold. We would probably be looking at highs and lows 5-10 degrees colder if this airmass moved through in mid-January than mid-February. Having the 1000-500mb thickness drop below 500dm Sunday morning is 4 standard deviations below normal compared to climatology! Current top 10 highs in 2015 for MDT - 49, 43, 42, 42, 41, 41, 40, 40, 39, 39 It is silly and really does not mean much but here are the current rankings for latest first 50 degree day in a calendar year for Harrisburg: 1963 (March 10), 1968 (March 4), 1941 (March 3), 1923 (March 2), 1987 (March 1), 1910/1902/1895 (Feb 27), 1936 (Feb 25), 1958 (Feb 24), 1994/1971 (Feb 18), 1948/1912 (Feb 17), 1945/1918 (Feb 12), 2015/1977 (Feb 11) Monday just looks down right vodka cold. I'm not sure if i'm looking at that right but it looks like -3. and that doesn't take into count for wind chill does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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