MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Boston is going to have nightmare scenarios by next Monday. Roof collapses, etc all have to be very close and with another foot and high winds, yikes. Not to mention if the potential after Presidents Day system cuts in enough along the coastline where the Boston metro ends up with some kind of a mixing scenario and weighs the pack even more. Speaking of that system, I guess i'll talk about it a bit. I suspect that once again we will be riding the fine line if we get a more wound up system that taps in some southern stream energy. This time the positioning of the deep eastern trough might come more into play instead of a SWFE type scenario thats more latitudinal (better chance for snows the farther north you are). Models kind of have this mean trough digging at a point where I'm a bit uncomfortable of it being positioned too far west and allowing the wave to cut in too far. Not particularly worried about it being a full fledged lakes cutter (unless we get a major phase).. but it's going to be another nail biter for our region as we get closer to go time. Right now the wave has looked progressive, 0z GFS coming in for example has a positively tilted open 500 trough swinging behind the surface wave running up the coast. Some mixing issues would probably be introduced in the far southern tier and SE PA per the GFS, but generally mainly snow for the rest attm. Progressive might be a good thing, I think if this thing were to really dig and phase we'd be talking about a big cutter and big issues where the feet of snow are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro snowmap including next week's system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Models seem to be trending wetter for next week. Hopefully there's more white than wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro snowmap including next week's system... Totals on that map remind me of the 21" shown on the Euro for 240 hrs. prior to the last storm; the one where we ended up with a few flakes at UNV. Here we go again. FYI - EuroWx has added grid values to some of their maps - including the Accumulated Snow map. Also many improvements to the look and functionality of the site. And an instructional video: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro snowmap including next week's system... Holy **** haha. I was wondering what the Eurowx map was going to show for that, the ridiculousness in Maine and the 24+ in the PA laurels is likely incorporating the clipper system that drops down and blows up off New England as well as adding a bit overall to the rest of the region. Still though, leave it to the Euro to throw up a crazy evolution for next weeks system (two pronged strike). I still think the Saturday clipper can offer up a half decent snowfall somewhere in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Haha. For Boston, the Euro also throws in 0.61" of ice sandwiched between periods of 5.4" and 17.7" of snow - just for good measure. Weighing down the snowpack as you had speculated. Let the media madness begin! Fingers crossed for Saturday here. If not here, at least for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Great runs by Euro and GFS last night! Both bring near 12+ to all of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Great runs by Euro and GFS last night! Both bring near 12+ to all of the LSV. 984mb low near Richmond on the Euro for Wednesday evening...nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 should I start a panic on facebook??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And then a week later I lost over 3' of snowcover in 12 hours and the Susky went wild... Since that time, i always worry about this. That was so destructive. i was young. but remember the '72 flood and i can tell you there is a huge difference with regular flooding and one in the winter when the river raises with all that ice, its an erie sight. and the sounds the creaking ice make will raise the hair on your neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Great runs by Euro and GFS last night! Both bring near 12+ to all of the LSV. another tease that will be tough to become reality... Like MAG mentioned, having a high to our east instead of our north would lead to potential to cut based on these runs... just a matter of where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like some action heading SE from the DuBois area...hope it hold up past the Alleghenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 If that high ain't to the north, I'm not interested. Anothrr cold ass rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Had a dusting overnight fwiw. And agreed, with a high not north usually ends badly it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If that high ain't to the north, I'm not interested. Anothrr cold ass rain. Pretty much. Those snow maps are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like some action heading SE from the DuBois area...hope it hold up past the Alleghenies Decent looking little squall moving this way. Could put down a quick 0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Good little blowup of snow overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Decent looking little squall moving this way. Could put down a quick 0.5". And it's over as fast as it began. We have a fresh coating at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And it's over as fast as it began. We have a fresh coating at least. Yeah. Was pretty intense but extremely short duration. Have a look at 4km NAM sim radar for Saturday afternoon. (18z and 21z) Now that would be a squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Also impressive is that the NAM gives State College a sub-zero day Sunday. Ranges from -12 to -2 or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Also impressive is that the NAM gives State College a sub-zero day Sunday. Ranges from -12 to -2 or so! GFS does the same. I have to believe they are just a bit overdone. A high in the single digits seems like pretty much a lock at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Also impressive is that the NAM gives State College a sub-zero day Sunday. Ranges from -12 to -2 or so! Yep, and the southern tier even struggles to do much more than 5 above. NAM verbatim, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Is this that last squall line for the day, thought it was supposed to be later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah. Was pretty intense but extremely short duration. Have a look at 4km NAM sim radar for Saturday afternoon. (18z and 21z) Now that would be a squall line. With how strong this front is I could believe it. I imagine some places in centre county will be making a run at -10 Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 With how strong this front is I could believe it. I imagine some places in centre county will be making a run at -10 Sunday night Yeah as CTP has mentioned, if we go clear and calm for a couple of hours early Monday morning, watch out. Most likely candidates probably Clarence, Port Matilda, and Bellefonte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah. Was pretty intense but extremely short duration. Have a look at 4km NAM sim radar for Saturday afternoon. (18z and 21z) Now that would be a squall line. And you know what, Eric Horst just tweeted about the exact same thing. He said any meteorolgist worth his salt would be giddy looking at that. Shoot, that has me excited! I remember one time years ago when this intense squall line came tearing through the state. I was a kid, but I remember it being warned by the NWS just like a summertime line of severe storms is. That squall line dropped nearly 3" of snow in about an hour down here in Lanco. We've never seen anything close to that from a squall line since. That had to be back in the late 70s I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And you know what, Eric Horst just tweeted about the exact same thing. He said any meteorolgist worth his salt would be giddy looking at that. Shoot, that has me excited! I remember one time years ago when this intense squall line came tearing through the state. I was a kid, but I remember it being warned by the NWS just like a summertime line of severe storms is. That squall line dropped nearly 3" of snow in about an hour down here in Lanco. We've never seen anything close to that from a squall line since. That had to be back in the late 70s I would guess. We had a squall line a few winters ago (my first winter in State College) one night that was extremely intense. By far the heaviest snow I've ever seen. It dropped nearly an inch, but only lasted about 15 minutes. If I remember correctly, it was in a similar situation. That's pretty much what I'm expecting out of this one, too... a very intense, very short-lived squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Nice little widget from NWS: http://innovation.srh.noaa.gov/NWSwidget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd love to see a snow squall with crazy winds and rates on Saturday. I'd even trade the rest of the snow from the clipper for it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 NAM has -41 C air @ 500 mb and some great snow squalls Saturday. Too bad it's the NAM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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