Mallow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So much for the Norlun... looking like it's gonna be way up in upstate NY. Story of the winter. Then the storm next week is looking borderline already, which, based on the way the season's storms have trended so far, means rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 DJR nice write up!! Agree with you on the windchill. Mallow the models might not be consistent but the pattern sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Mallow made that post and, at that moment, five puppies died Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So much for the Norlun... looking like it's gonna be way up in upstate NY. Story of the winter. Then the storm next week is looking borderline already, which, based on the way the season's storms have trended so far, means rain... Don't complain/be a downer...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Don't complain/be a downer...lol. I guess it's technically possible that we could get lucky with next week's storm and have it track just right... for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thread that needle lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I want to belieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Let me dream.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL NE is just going to cease existence pretty soon if that keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 the pictures from up in MA. are insane........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 LOL, it would take a Polar Express type effort to get this forum to believe a major storm on the day 4 models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Sunday night might be the coldest day I've ever seen since moving here in 2006. Current coldest day is 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Reading the forecast disco seems there may be some squalls around tomorrow and they even said they should make it well into the Susq. Valley. Any mets see a good 20 min squall as a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Them poor people from Boston are saying uncle....But the snow isn't letting up. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Why is the GFS showing 2 lows? Any thoughts on what the model is having trouble with? http://www.txtornado.net/GFS/new_slp_gfs_12z.htm# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Reading the forecast disco seems there may be some squalls around tomorrow and they even said they should make it well into the Susq. Valley. Any mets see a good 20 min squall as a possibility? I see it more like a certainty than a possibility... Surface-850 lapse rates are progged to be ridiculous tomorrow afternoon. GFS 18z tomorrow (Euro lapses are even higher) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Reading the forecast disco seems there may be some squalls around tomorrow and they even said they should make it well into the Susq. Valley. Any mets see a good 20 min squall as a possibility?Pretty much echoing what Mag said. Tomorrow afternoon into evening should have numerous snow squalls present in the forecast area. The area of precip will be convective in nature with pretty incredible amount of PVA swinging through the LSV. The potential is there for pre frontal, FROPA and post frontal snow shower/squall capability. With that much lift, I wouldn't be surprised if areas can pick up an inch of snow in a brief period of time, but more like coating to 1/2" in most locales. These next 2-3 cold shots mean business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS says its going to be a snowy week for the state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS says its going to be a snowy week for the state! Let's hope it verifies. I've seen more than one digital snowmap this winter that's given me more snow than that and resulted in nothing. I'm pretty hopeful we get something decent early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Boston is going to have nightmare scenarios by next Monday. Roof collapses, etc all have to be very close and with another foot and high winds, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I would take the 10-12 inches of 18z snow for the LSV! That would put us on pace for above average snow for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Boston is going to have nightmare scenarios by next Monday. Roof collapses, etc all have to be very close and with another foot and high winds, yikes. I'd be in weenie heaven given that I'm able to work from home and classes would (presumably) be canceled if that occurred here. Although 69" in 30 days (as recorded at Boston) has to be just about statistically impossible for State College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd be in weenie heaven given that I'm able to work from home and classes would (presumably) be canceled if that occurred here. Although 69" in 30 days (as recorded at Boston) has to be just about statistically impossible for State College.We had like 45" in 5 days or whatever in Feb 2010 so I think it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd be in weenie heaven given that I'm able to work from home and classes would (presumably) be canceled if that occurred here. Although 69" in 30 days (as recorded at Boston) has to be just about statistically impossible for State College. It would be exceedingly rare of course, but probably doable in the right pattern. The early-mid 90s winters had some crazy periods: 2/12/93-3/14/93: 63.8" 2/4/94-3/4/94: 58" 12/19/95-1/13/96: 50.1" Also: 3/3/1942-3/31/1942: 47.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We had like 45" in 5 days or whatever in Feb 2010 so I think it could happen. Yes...that's exactly what I measured. I also got 43" in 6 days back in '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And then a week later I lost over 3' of snowcover in 12 hours and the Susky went wild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And then a week later I lost over 3' of snowcover in 12 hours and the Susky went wild... I'd be worried about that kind of scenario in NE if we get a sudden pattern change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Getting a little bit of a wintry mix in Altoona. Sort of a snow/ice pellet mix laying on the walks and icy patches on the driveway and road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 And then a week later I lost over 3' of snowcover in 12 hours and the Susky went wild...That flood was wild. Helped a buddy unload his first floor in ankle-deep water that probably cuts 15 years off my life lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I remember that...on the day of the blizzard I had my knee repaired, and could not find an open pharmacy to get pain medication. Then the snow melted and I was doing a presentation and had to tell the class that we were being sent home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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