WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I will tell ya that if anyone is gonna get blizzard conditions, it will be here at IWX. We have definitely been throwing around the wording. The concern isn't as much because of NYC as it is winds. It is extrememly difficult to get true blizzard criteria in this portion of the country. We will continue to nowcast for this event and if the surface low trends deeper, don't be surprised to see us throw one one. What is blizzard criteria for the US? Here in Canada it is 25 mph sustained winds for 4+ hours with 1/4 SM or less visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Interesting if the 12z EURO comes in looking like it has since the 12z Canadian remains South as well. If so I'm going with the globals over the American models. That'd be 4 straight runs for both without much waffling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm a little concerned about the mild temperature across Iowa. We have already hit 36 and it's not even 11am. It's one thing to be 35 and quickly fall to freezing once the precip begins, but 40 degrees is a little different. I don't want to lose a quarter inch of the precip to rain. The SW winds sure have ushered in some warmth. This is why I think the farther north track that the GFS has is plausible. More warmth farther north. This could also aide in a stronger, moist system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What is blizzard criteria for the US? Here in Canada it is 25 mph sustained winds for 4+ hours with 1/4 SM or less visibility. Either sutained winds of 35 MPH+, or consecutive gusts of 35 MPH+ within 3 hours with visibilities solidly below 1/4 miles the entire 3 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If the system was taking aim on the Toronto region it would be taken seriously. During severe weather the warnings are issued after the event has passed in many cases. The last widespread winter storm watch in SW Ontario/GTA was April 9/10 2013. It's fairly common for them to skip a watch and go right to warning at the last minute in our area regardless of how many snow/ice storms we've had in the last 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Any word yet on the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z Ukie no where near as amped as the 0z but still holding strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1043 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015 UPDATE1032 AM CSTCURRENTLY GOING OVER THE LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. A FIRST LOOKAT THE 12 UTC GFS INCREASES MY CONCERNS FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCHOF MY AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...PRECIP TYPE ISSUESMENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COULD COMPLICATED THINGSACROSS MY FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTSTHE 850 MB LOW MAY TRACK RIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAYAFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THIS COULD IMPACT SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS MYFAR SOUTH.I AM ALSO BECOMING MORE CONCERNED FOR THE POTENTIAL OFBLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY GIVENTHE TREND FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM. THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE GFSSUGGESTS WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS...WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UPAROUND 40 KT. IF THESE TYPE OF WINDS MATERIALIZE...WHITE OUTCONDITIONS COULD CERTAINLY BECOME AN ISSUE. IN ANYEVENT...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF MY AREA WILLEXPERIENCE A MAJOR WINTER STORM...WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOWPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 If the system was taking aim on the Toronto region it would be taken seriously. During severe weather the warnings are issued after the event has passed in many cases. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 What is blizzard criteria for the US? Here in Canada it is 25 mph sustained winds for 4+ hours with 1/4 SM or less visibility. potential for sustained wind or frequent gusts equal to or greater than 35 mph and visibility less than 1/4 mi for 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At the end of the day, you're right. Obsessing about these numbers are stupid. If you get a nice dumping of snow, with cold, wind, drifts, near blizzard conditions, you're set. Regardless about what the F6 data says. Absolutely agree with this! To me, these are my own personal "excitement" criteria for snowstorm amounts: < 4" No excitement 4-6" Minor excitement 7-10" Excited 11-15" Very excited 16"+ Heaven I think any system above 6" can be very exciting if winds are strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 In the end...The GFS. GFS has done pretty well since the new year update. EURO could take some notes given their updates seem to diminish its reliability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GRR saying "oh knock that **** off, It's only going to be a couple inches - the models are all overdone" lol - being facetious here I am becoming increasingly concerned. Being a firefighter here in Marshall... Everyone I've talked to this morning (taught a fire academy course this am) has said "it's only going to be a couple inches" or the infamous "it's going to miss us to the south". Coming from a public safety stand-point, you have all major models giving the area appreciable snow that WILL cause issues 8" on the low end and as high as 20"... Just issue a warning and let people prepare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Got to head out and get the equipment ready.... Been waiting for the morning chill to relax and the sun to warm the machines up to help get them started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 At the end of the day, you're right. Obsessing about these numbers are stupid. If you get a nice dumping of snow, with cold, wind, drifts, near blizzard conditions, you're set. Regardless about what the F6 data says. I could not agree with you MORE. But it bothers some so I say lets DO IT. Whats funny is that while Jan 22, 2005 was awesome, it was nowhere NEAR my favorite storm the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Wow, for some reason I thought DTW went over 12" for that January 6(?), 2014 system. Sounds like Detroit's 10-12" "no problem" dumps are like YYZ's 8" dumps... which are almost always forecasted as 4" DTW had 11.0" on Jan 4/5, 2014. The NWS office, DTX, had 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 FWIW the 15z RAP is digging the wave more than the NAM and is as strong as the GFS at 9z tomorrow with a 1008mb low in northeast KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 So, the "blizzard panic" was in full swing this morning. Was out at the local Wally World this morning getting new boots, and other supplies. Bread, milk, coffee, and any other kind of thing was flying out of the store. (I have beer and cheese balls, and pretzels, so I am good.... ) Figuring MBY will see, at the very least 10" . Haven't seen a snow map, but it looks as though we are in for it through tomorrow. This kind or weather makes working from home extra sweet.... although, unless power goes out, I can't use the weather as an excuse for not showing up...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 DTW had 11.0" on Jan 4/5, 2014. The NWS office, DTX, had 14.0" OFficial storm total map for January 4th-5th, 2014... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GRR saying "oh knock that **** off, It's only going to be a couple inches - the models are all overdone" lol - being facetious here I am becoming increasingly concerned. Being a firefighter here in Marshall... Everyone I've talked to this morning (taught a fire academy course this am) has said "it's only going to be a couple inches" or the infamous "it's going to miss us to the south". Coming from a public safety stand-point, you have all major models giving the area appreciable snow that WILL cause issues 8" on the low end and as high as 20"... Just issue a warning and let people prepare. The hypesters of the media are to blame. Send a message of potential weather and make the calls as required. I see no harm in posting the upper and lower perameters to the public as what could happen and sharpen the pencil when the event nears. To sit back and issue don't worry everything will be fine till the last minute should be flamed more than making a call based on blending the information available at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Liking between US 30 and US 6 for the heaviest snow. You are looking primed my friend.Hey, that's me! *right between US 6 and US30 Was wondering if you folks at IWX would throw around the possibility of blizzard warnings. Seems like all the criteria will be present at sometime or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 OFficial storm total map for January 4th-5th, 2014... that map was made before reports came in. DTX is good about making maps but sometimes they dont finalize them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Just look at that radar, moisture coming up...KABOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Omaha was up to 37 degrees and started as rain. It has taken them about three hours to fall to 34 and switch to snow. It is now 38 in Cedar Rapids and still rising steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z NMM is 1004mb just south of Lousville and the ARW is 1000mb between Indy and Louisville, both pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 OFficial storm total map for January 4th-5th, 2014... lol at the little donut hole over me. Can safely say we got more than 8" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 that map was made before reports came in. DTX is good about making maps but sometimes they dont finalize them. That map included a 10.6" report from DTW, and a 9.9" report from Wyandotte... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z vs new 12z ARW at 0z tomorrow night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GRR saying "oh knock that **** off, It's only going to be a couple inches - the models are all overdone" lol - being facetious here I am becoming increasingly concerned. Being a firefighter here in Marshall... Everyone I've talked to this morning (taught a fire academy course this am) has said "it's only going to be a couple inches" or the infamous "it's going to miss us to the south". Coming from a public safety stand-point, you have all major models giving the area appreciable snow that WILL cause issues 8" on the low end and as high as 20"... Just issue a warning and let people prepare. Even when I was out taking care of stuff prior to starting work today, I over heard a couple of discussions, people discounting the storm, saying it's going to miss, or it's only going to be "a couple of inches" annoys me. As a former public safety type (Firefighter, EMT, 9-1-1 Operator) it drives me nuts when people fail to prepare for any kind of inclement weather, be it a blizzard, or severe storms, or what have you, especially when the weather is imminent, and warnings have been posted. Today there are those out preparing, as best they can, and there are those, like a couple of my neighbors, who are blowing it off. However, there is no convincing them that there is going to be heavy snow, until it starts falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12z NMM is 1004mb just south of Lousville and the ARW is 1000mb between Indy and Louisville, both pretty wet. yeah...NMM may bust a few 1.5+ lolli's in LOT by the looks of it through H34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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