Ranking All-Time Blizzards for the East Coast

[TheSnowman]

So as a few days have gone by after our fairly Historic Snowstorm (and as we try to figure out these videos with over 30" of compact to decipher if there were 40" Totals missed), it's time for me to talk about the one thing I Can contribute to this board - Historical context after an event.  Since you don't want ME forecasting your town!  

 

Yes the NESIS scale is out for the Blizzard of 2015, and it's a bit low.  Don't worry, I already laughingly complained to Paul as I did for the Blizzard of 2013 which missed ALL of the 30" amounts in central CT.  

 

But we all know what these were like in every aspect.  So, why not, Really rank what I think were the 12 most Impressive events in Northeast History.  

 

- Blizzard of 2015  

- Blizzard of 2013     

- Duel Blizzards of 2010 (Mid-Atlantic)   

- Blizzard of 2006  

- Blizzard of 2005    

- PDII of 2003      

- April Fool's Day Blizzard of 1997  

- Blizzard of 1996  

- Superstorm of 1993    

- Blizzard of 1978         

- 100 Hour Storm of 1969    

- Great White Hurricane of 1888        

 

It is unbelievable to think that 9 of the 12 listed here are since the Great Snow Era started in 1992 with a Blizzard of its own which broke the Worcester Record at the time.   One would think this is wrong and that we just don't have the data of previous storms.  Though I have studied the Great storms of the 60's and 40's and others of the 80's and PDI; and none of them really deserve to be in the Highest echelon of storms in terms of widespread 20"+ amounts and memorable aspects form what I can see, but please tell me differently (Will and Jerry!).  

 

 

Here are 10 Aspects to Rank These on.  

 

1. Overall Size of Swath  

2. Total area of 30" Amounts  

3. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

4. Highest Totals (1888, 1993, and 1978 had 50" amounts)  

5. How Major Cities were affected (30" amounts in the city of Boston in the Blizzard of 2015 are impressive)  

6. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises (April Fool's Day in 1997 wins this since a 30" Snowstorm in April is Unreal.  And 2015's Length was surprising.)  

7. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"     

8. NESIS Scale  

9. Length  

10. Variety of Jackpot Zones (1993 was very impressive here)  

 

Impact on life can not count since we are Far better equipt to handle storms now, and predict them, which brings into a hole article someone could do Entitled "How bad would the Blizzard of 1978 be if it happened next weekend?".  Also, it's just good or bad luck wen they happen, such as the Blizzard of 2006 being nothing since it occurred on a Sunday, even though it gave NYC 2 Feet which should have been paralyzing.  

 

Something that was done once by Dr. Zelinski, and needs to be examined more, are storms that missed us that WOULD have and SHOULD have been in the Top ranks.  Just last season there were 2 storms with absolutely Incredible buzzsaws that missed us by 100-200 miles.  What Nor'Easters just didn't get the spot right, and would be worthy of the pantheon?  

 

 

Great White Hurricane of 1888:  4th Place  

6th. Overall Size of Swath                                                                  

1st. Total area of 30" Amounts  

3rd. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

1st. Highest Totals  

4th. How Major Cities were affected  

5th. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

4th. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

10th. NESIS Scale  

8th. Length  

6th. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

100 Hour Storm of 1969:   8th Place  

7th. Overall Size of Swath  

2nd. Total area of 30" Amounts  

12th. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

6th. Highest Totals  

12th. How Major Cities were affected  

9th. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

12th. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

8th. NESIS Scale  

1st. Length  

7th. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

The "Great" Blizzard of 1978:   5th Place  

5th. Overall Size of Swath  

8th. Total area of 30" Amounts  

1st. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

5th. Highest Totals  

7th. How Major Cities were affected  

6th. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

5th. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

6th. NESIS Scale  

3rd. Length  

8th. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

Superstorm of 1993:   1st Place  

1st. Overall Size of Swath  

5th. Total area of 30" Amounts  

9th. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

2nd. Highest Totals  

2nd. How Major Cities were affected  

3rd. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

8th. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

1st. NESIS Scale  

6th. Length  

1st. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

The Blizzard of 1996:   2nd Place  

2nd. Overall Size of Swath  

4th. Total area of 30" Amounts  

7th. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

3rd. Highest Totals  

3rd. How Major Cities were affected  

4th. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

9th. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

2nd. NESIS Scale  

7th. Length  

2nd. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

April Fool's Day Blizzard of 1997:   10th Place  

9th. Overall Size of Swath  

10th. Total area of 30" Amounts  

4th. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

10th. Highest Totals  

11th. How Major Cities were affected  

1st. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

6th. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

12th. NESIS Scale  

12th. Length  

11th. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

(Will Complete article in Next Post as too many pictures are here for 1 Post)  

[TheSnowman]

PDII Blizzard of 2003:   9th Place  

3rd. Overall Size of Swath  

9th. Total area of 30" Amounts  

11th. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

11th. Highest Totals  

8th. How Major Cities were affected  

11th. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

10th. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

4th. NESIS Scale  

10th. Length  

3rd. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

Blizzard of 2005:   11th Place  

12th. Overall Size of Swath  

11th. Total area of 30" Amounts  

6th. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

9th. Highest Totals  

9th. How Major Cities were affected  

10th. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

11th. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

5th. NESIS Scale  

5th. Length  

10th. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

Blizzard of 2006:   12th Place  

8th. Overall Size of Swath  

12th. Total area of 30" Amounts  

10th. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

12th. Highest Totals  

10th. How Major Cities were affected  

12th. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

2nd. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

9th. NESIS Scale  

11th. Length  

9th. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

Duel Snowstorms of 2010:   3rd Place  (Same As NESIS Scale in 3rd Place Actually)  

TOTAL: 

4th. Overall Size of Swath  

3rd. Total area of 30" Amounts  

5th. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

4th. Highest Totals  

1st. How Major Cities were affected  

2nd. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

7th. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

3rd. NESIS Scale  

2nd. Length  

12th. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

Blizzard of 2013:   6th Place  

Greatest Deformation Band EVER

 

10th. Overall Size of Swath  

6th. Total area of 30" Amounts  

2nd. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

8th. Highest Totals  

6th. How Major Cities were affected  

8th. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

1st. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

7th. NESIS Scale  

9th. Length  

5th. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

Blizzard of 2015:   7th Place  

11th. Overall Size of Swath  

7th. Total area of 30" Amounts  

8th. Intensity / Wind / Damage / Coastal Damage  

7th. Highest Totals  

5th. How Major Cities were affected  

7th. Impressiveness of the system and Surprises   

3rd. It's Deformation Band or "Death Band"  

11th. NESIS Scale  

4th. Length  

4th. Variety of Jackpot Zones    

 

 

 

    I will finish Ranking these in the morning from 1-12 in each category and get a Final Standing.  I've already got the notes.     Our Blizzard this week, Ranks 7th in my scale here.  Ranking High in the Deformation Band, Length and Cities Categories.  Ranking Poor on the NESIS scale and overall Swath.  The Blizzard of 2013 2013 was slightly better in most categories, and I think that is right.           

 

 

     Musically and Snowily - 

 

                                   Cory Pesaturo  "The Snowman"    

[CoastalWx]

[codfishsnowman]

i wish i knew exactly what spfd had in 78, that 13 seems low even for here and folk around here talk about it

[MN Transplant]

I lived through them, and I just don't think it is fair to combine the two mid-Atlantic events in 2010. I'm sure some of these other storms had smaller storms within days that added to the weekly total. As the list stands now, these would absolutely trump any New England storm, with three major metros receiving 35-50". 93 was a different beast.

[ice1972]

Oct 2011? For us the impact was about as bad as it gets.....9 days no power.....infrastructure damage from 12" heavy wet snow on fully leafed trees was tremendous.....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Forgot about the octobomb. But looks good thanks for doing it.

[ORH_wxman]

2015 is low on the list of east coast blizzards because it really only hit New England with sizable totals...and LI.

1993 is still the king even if the I-95 cities didn't get the max. Maybe 1996 if you need to insist on I-95 getting the jackpot.

2010 can't hold up because the big one on feb 5-6 missed NYC. Nevermind BOS.

This is if you are looking at these storms from a larger perspective. Of course, if you are only ranking them based on a more specific area that excludes some of the other major cities, then you can make different rankings.

[Ginx snewx]

 1st place East Coast 93, New England 78, Connecticut 2013, RI 78, Mass 78, Maine 69, NH 69, VT every year

[mreaves]

 1st place East Coast 93, New England 78, Connecticut 2013, RI 78, Mass 78, Maine 69, NH 69, VT every year

Lol, we wish.  I've lived here for 40 years, since I was 7 years old, and I don't know if I have ever seen conditions that would officially qualify as "blizzard", i.e. winds of 35mph lasting for more than 3 hours.  The best storm that I have seen is Valentine's Day 2007.  34" at my house and snow so deep our snowmobile club's groomer got stuck. 

[Chrisrotary12]

The Blizzard of 2015 likely received the correct NESIS score.  I did a report on the NESIS system in college and one of the main variables in the equation is population effected.  The Blizzard of 2015 only really impacted one major metropolitan center.  While storms such as March 1993, Jan 1996, Feb 2003, & Jan 2005 impacted more of the I-95 corridor.

[codfishsnowman]

they only had 14 to 15 inches in 78 here, thats pitiful....so maybe even if the low was captured farther west it wouldnt have made a difference.....so thats 78 05 and 15 that were all miller bs that had remarkable mins back this way....the more i look into this stuff the grimmer it gets

[TheSnowman]

Oct 2011? For us the impact was about as bad as it gets.....9 days no power.....infrastructure damage from 12" heavy wet snow on fully leafed trees was tremendous.....

I'll finish putting my ranking in today. It's already done on my computer. But I DID think about putting that one for the same reason as 97 - Impressiveness. A 2 Foot stormin Ovtober is obscene. But wasn't Big enough to really compete with 1993 and the likes of that calliber.

Glad we all agree 1993 was #1 even though it sucked for us!

And I DO feel that counting the two storms in 2010 is worthy since Paul himself did a NESIS Scale (I put there) of them as 1 storm. Has there ever been anything like that in history? 2 20" Storms with a 24 hour break? To The nine with the person with the naked eye, I'm sure they were very much the same storm to them, so..... .

[ORH_wxman]

I'll finish putting my ranking in today. It's already done on my computer. But I DID think about putting that one for the same reason as 97 - Impressiveness. A 2 Foot stormin Ovtober is obscene. But wasn't Big enough to really compete with 1993 and the likes of that calliber.

Glad we all agree 1993 was #1 even though it sucked for us!

And I DO feel that counting the two storms in 2010 is worthy since Paul himself did a NESIS Scale (I put there) of them as 1 storm. Has there ever been anything like that in history? 2 20" Storms with a 24 hour break? To The nine with the person with the naked eye, I'm sure they were very much the same storm to them, so..... .

 

 

It was more like a 60-72 hour break between the two 2010 storms...the first was Feb 5-6 and the 2nd was Feb 9-10.

[tamarack]

If one combines the two Feb '2010 storms, one might also combine the storms of Jan-Feb 1961, even though they were 2 weeks apart.  The 1st storm (JFK inaugural) was followed by brutal cold, such that many places N and W of NYC had over 20" OG when the 2nd one added 20-30", also recording NYC's strongest ever winds in Feb.  Snowpack reached 50" in NW NJ And adjacent NY, far above that in any other winter.  I'd at least add Feb. 3-4, 1961 to the list.

 

And while 1969 is probably the best Maine storm overall, it might depend on one's location - folks (older folks) from the PWM area might nominate Feb. 1952, and around BGR it would have to be New Year's Eve 1962.

[jamesnichols89]

I would not be surprised if the storm on Monday February 2nd 2015 could be worse if it all comes together on the NESIS scale given potential for 10-14" in multiple metros.

[snowman21]

NESIS is population and area-weighted, and this one didn't affect very many people. What's the minimum NESIS score to be considered a KU? I thought it was 3, and if NYC and PHL had gotten more it likely would have qualified.

[ORH_wxman]

NESIS is population and area-weighted, and this one didn't affect very many people. What's the minimum NESIS score to be considered a KU? I thought it was 3, and if NYC and PHL had gotten more it likely would have qualified.

 

 

Kocin doesn't go strictly on NESIS score..he goes by where it happened too. Fore example, V-day 2007 is a NESIS 3 ranked almost exactly what Feb 1978 is...but since it did not really hit the I-95 cities (and instead was a crushing BTV-ALB-AVP storm)...he would classify that as a "near miss).

 

He has Nesis category 1s in the KU book under the case studies.

[Ginx snewx]

NESIS is population and area-weighted, and this one didn't affect very many people. What's the minimum NESIS score to be considered a KU? I thought it was 3, and if NYC and PHL had gotten more it likely would have qualified.

yea what's 4.5 million people among friends

[ORH_wxman]

yea what's 4.5 million people among friends

 

 

He was obviously talking relatively...it was a small population affected in this event compared to other KU events which is why it got the category 2...hell April 1997 was a category 1.

[klw]

Feb 83 is also a good one.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/the-megalopolitan-blizzard-of-february-10-12-1983/2013/02/12/be05ae32-73a9-11e2-aa12-e6cf1d31106b_blog.html

[HoarfrostHubb]

I didn't realize they had already given the 2015 Blizzard a rating. Pretty quick

[Ginx snewx]

I didn't realize they had already given the 2015 Blizzard a rating. Pretty quick

we definitely need a New England based system. could do it

[TheSnowman]

we definitely need a New England based system. could do it

Actually I was working on one when I first started talking with Paul, and then he told me about the NESIS scale and I went "Well if the God of US Snowstorms is doing one, I'll just stop right now.  No point." Hahaha.  But I feel (hence why I did this post) that more factors need to be put in place to get a Real feel for what was the Greatest storm or storms.  1997 deserves an Insane amount of praise regardless of its small area since we all know how hard it is to produce a Top 3 snowfall across an area in April.  That's unprecedented.  Where 1996 is just the King of Classic East Coast Blizzards because of the massive area it affected, but not out of the realm of possibility.  1997 and October 2011 were more out of the realm of possibility.  

 

And Yes I probably do need to add 1983.  Just wasn't completely impressed with the 20" amounts (even if adding a lot).  But I need to read up on that one more. I just see it as a poor mans 1996 or 2003.  

[Ginx snewx]

having excessive snow in NYC or BWI is cool but we need a ranking system totally specific to New England, your parameters are good . 

[Ginx snewx]

Putting the Blizzard of 2015 into Historical Context

 

The recent “Blizzard of 2015” shutdown several major metropolitan areas in the Northeast and left several locations across Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and New York covered in over two feet of snow. But, how did this snowstorm compare to the region’s most historic storms? To place this storm and its societal impacts into historical context, NCDC used theRegional Snowfall Index or RSI to rank it on a scale from 1 to 5—similar to the Fujita scale for tornadoes or the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes. These ranks are based on the snowfall amount within the region’s borders, the spatial extent of the storm, and the relationship of these elements to the area’s population.

The RSI value for January 25­–28, 2015, snowstorm is 6.16, which makes it a Category 3 or major event for the Northeast. With that RSI value, the snowstorm ranks 26th out of the 423 northeastern snowstorms NCDC has analyzed since 1900. The area of snowfall and population affected by 20 inches of snow or more were the primary drivers for this storm’s raw RSI score. Almost 5 million people experienced over 20 inches of snow and 15 million experienced over 10 inches of new snow. While these are significant impacts, the footprint of the heavy snow was relatively small compared to RSI Category 5 storms. These rare events typically have over 45 million people experiencing over 10 inches of snow. Nonetheless, this storm is well within the top 10% of storms analyzed for the Northeast.

The late February snowstorm of 1969 remains the strongest storm to hit the Northeast, with an RSI value of 34.03 making it a Category 5 or extreme event. The March 1993 “Storm of the Century” remains the second strongest snowstorm to hit the Northeast, with an RSI value of 22.12 also making it a Category 5 event.

Learn more about the Regional Snowfall Index and use our interactive mapping tool to see RSI rankings for almost 600 snowstorms since 1900.

[eyewall]

I would argue some of those NESIS maps are not accurate. I had over 20 inches on Long Island for the Blizzard of 96 and PD II.

[gymengineer]

I would argue some of those NESIS maps are not accurate. I had over 20 inches on Long Island for the Blizzard of 96 and PD II.

The NCDC NESIS maps have been discussed quite often within the various sub-forums. It's the methodology-- they don't use the regular spotter reports we'd see in the PNS's. Instead, only first order and COOP data are included. Kocin and Uccellini's own NESIS maps from Northeast Snowstorms  were much more liberal, and probably closer to what people on here measured in the big ones. 

At least, though, the NCDC NESIS maps have the same conservative take on snowfall totals for almost all the storms that they ranked. So, it's not like one city's "big ones" get an inflated relative ranking to another city's. 

[klw]

we definitely need a New England based system. could do it

Lyndon State has a Interior NE snow storm ranking:

http://meteorology.lyndonstate.edu/projects/snowstorm/

 

Our geographic focus is on interior snow storms, or storms that generally bring heavy

snow inland over parts of north and western Massachusetts, northern and central New

York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. We apologize to those of you interested

in more coastal locations; however,about a third of our cases also have significant

snowfall accumulations near the coast. An excellent reference for coastal storms is

the authoritative book Northeast Snow Storms by Kocin and Uccellini (2004).

 

 

 

 

The last one listed is from 07 so I don't know if it is an active list anymore.  when posted it covered 77-07.

 

 

Methodology is here:

 http://meteorology.lyndonstate.edu/projects/snowstorm/

[mreaves]

Lyndon State has a Interior NE snow storm ranking:

http://meteorology.lyndonstate.edu/projects/snowstorm/

 

 

 

 

The last one listed is from 07 so I don't know if it is an active list anymore.  when posted it covered 77-07.

 

 

Methodology is here:

 http://meteorology.lyndonstate.edu/projects/snowstorm/

Cool site.. I've never seen it before.