GaWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 What about the means? from what I can see on the 18z gefs and it's members, we shouldn't be worried...? 2/17 gets back to colder. However, just seeing the warmer 2/15-6 is quite unsettling based on how much models have overestimated SE cold recently and backed off as one has gotten closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Don't shoot me as I'm just a friendly messenger. So, please put the guns (and knives) away. That having been said, the 0Z GFS appears to be coming in significantly warmer than the prior three runs for around 2/15-6. That's not what I wanted to see at all. Let's see where this leads.You haven't posted in awhile, up until a few days ago, we have seen this over and over again, the past month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You haven't posted in awhile, up until a few days ago, we have seen this over and over again, the past month! Mack, However, I've still been following the models and agree. By the way, the 11-15 day on the 0Z GFS is not as cold as the 6Z/18Z versions though it is quite a bit colder than the 12Z version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Classic downstream North Pacific/North America extratropical pattern amplification & subsequent (& likely powerful) 6-10 day cold shot into the eastern US upcoming w/ the recurvature of Tropical Storm Higos in the western Pacific, which spawned off a rather intense westward propagating Eq Rossby Wave that was actually able to project onto the RMM MJO EOFs... This kind of pattern was expected in looking @ the El Nino intensity/placement temperature composites & the +AO/NAO El Nino Februarys. with the core of the cold in the southeastern US & US Eastern Seaboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Fab Febs mentioned above (GSO totals): Feb 1959: T Feb 1973: T Feb 1992: T Feb 1995: T Feb 2003: 4.0" Mean: 0.8" Median: T Mode: T Not exactly ideal years, though February 2003 was legit with the PD III sleetstorm and all. The other years appear chilly, but all are below average in snowfall (average snowfall is 2-2.5" in February). Luckily, as always, every year is different and this year is, as well, so we'll always have a chance at seeing something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 CMC ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 CMC ftw? Sexy lakes low up there. Going to be close. Too bad the party ends at hr 240, so we won't get to see much of the result. EDIT: Nevermind, hr 240 tells the tale. Firestorm. But at least it has a storm......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think a typhoon was suppose to save Dec/Jan? How did that work out? JB flexing that meteorological muscle , along with WW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 How could the 0Z drunk Doc be so much different from the 12Z Doc? What happened to the beautiful tall western ridge? Where is the TX shortwave/moisture of 2/16? I'm assuming I'm really asleep and am having a nightmare. Maybe this run isn't real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 How could the 0Z drunk Doc be so much different from the 12Z Doc? What happened to the beautiful tall western ridge? where is the TX shortwave/moisture of 2/16? I'm assuming I'm really asleep and am having a nightmare. Maybe this run isn't real. It's rough man! It's almost like the models get false/ wrong data about 8-10 days, shows cold and snow for a run or two on either model , then 5-8 days out, they are like, sike, I was looking at the wrong thing! GFS run/warmer, Euro/ warmer, it's not a nightmare , it's just winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Well the 6z GFS continues to show the cold air attack starting late next week. It also shows a possible clipper around day 9 and a full blown fantasy SE snow storm at day 11. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=264ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150208+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I have a hard time buying in to the 5 degree low on the 20th for here (kjnx) per meteostar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The 0Z EPS looks similar to its prior run and quite different from the 0Z Euro op. It has two wintry threats for parts of the SE fwiw: 2/16-7 and 2/20-1. For the record, the 6Z GFS is a classic Miller B major mainly ZR for ATL and ZR/IP for 2/18 for AHN/GVL as well as much of N GA south of the mtns for PM of 2/18 and then 2/18-9 eastward to AGS/CUB (mainly IP much of SC portion) and to MYR from 0.75-1" of qpf. CHS gets 1/2" qpf of mainly ZR/IP. The wedge is quite impressive due to very cold high in the NE. If under modeled, the ZR could reach back to most of NW GA/NE AL. Far NE AL/far N GA/Upstate and N SC/most of NC/E TN get hammered with a 7-10" SN in many areas 2/18-9. Far N MS and far NW AL/W TN get 1-4" of SN on 2/18. Some SN on backside BHM-CUB mainly early 2/19. CUB gets ~2" on top of the IP. I probably wasted my time with this detail for something so far out (10 days) as it wasn't there on the last runs and will likely be totally different at 12Z. So, view this as almost pure entertainment and for the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The 0Z EPS looks similar to its prior run and quite different from the 0Z Euro op. It has two wintry threats for parts of the SE fwiw: 2/16-7 and 2/20-1. For the record, the 6Z GFS is a classic Miller B major mainly ZR for ATL and ZR/IP for 2/18 for AHN/GVL as well as much of N GA south of the mtns for PM of 2/18 and then 2/18-9 eastward to AGS/CUB (mainly IP much of SC portion) and to MYR from 0.75-1" of qpf. CHS gets 1/2" qpf of mainly ZR/IP. The wedge is quite impressive due to very cold high in the NE. If under modeled, the ZR could reach back to most of NW GA/NE AL. Far NE AL/far N GA/Upstate and N SC/most of NC/E TN get hammered with a 7-10" SN in many areas 2/18-9. Far N MS and far NW AL/W TN get 1-4" of SN on 2/18. Some SN on backside BHM-CUB mainly early 2/19. CUB gets ~2" on top of the IP. I probably wasted my time with this detail for something so far out (10 days) as it wasn't there on the last runs and will likely be totally different at 12Z. So, view this as almost pure entertainment and for the record. Of course some of this to the south is ice(too bad were this far out): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=06&fhour=276¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Of course some of this to the south is ice(too bad were this far out): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=06&fhour=276¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Looks good to me :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Pretty good analogs with Feb's of 78/80/07. 78 and 80 were very snowy and 07 had a nice event too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_MountainWX Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Looks like the cold air won't be a problem on the 6z gfs for the D11 storm. I know its far off but i like the placement of the highs and no pesky lake lows flirting around to give us the screw job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I have a hard time buying in to the 5 degree low on the 20th for here (kjnx) per meteostar. I don't either...the last cold shot modeled that deep didn't verify. When talking about the 15th/16th I tweeted yesterday ( I know not everyone is on twitter) that low 20s to mid-upper teens are the more likely scenario for Raleigh/Garner/Clayton area. The lowest temp on the GEFS 2mT mean lows is 17 for RDU. The 20th the means are in the mid-20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Pretty good analogs with Feb's of 78/80/07. 78 and 80 were very snowy and 07 had a nice event too... Pack - I've never seen you post so many snow maps, model runs, etc. this year. Are you all in for the last half of Feb? Come to the dark side! It's fun over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Pretty good analogs with Feb's of 78/80/07. 78 and 80 were very snowy and 07 had a nice event too... The placement of the anomalies look good. We know how they'll probably end up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I think the Feb 15th - Feb 20th range is probably going to be our last hope. If we can't get it done at the end or in between going in the freezer I just don't know how else we can do it. ULL in March will be our only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Pack - I've never seen you post so many snow maps, model runs, etc. this year. Are you all in for the last half of Feb? Come to the dark side! It's fun over here LOL, it's more of we got 2-3 more weeks of winter and then I won't log back on till cane season. Although with another boring cane season is possible with a lingering nino it could be a real dud. Just thinking about how uneventful this past hurricane season was and with how uneventful this winter season has been, zzzzzzzz.... The cold is impressive to end winter in otherwise boring winter. Just looking at the EPS 2m temps, I don't recall it being this call this far out from day 5 on, not even last winter was it this cold for the SE. From day 5 on it has 2m's between -4C to -8C from day 5 - 15. That's impressive, I guess that would be 7 to 15 below normal for 10 days... Edit: I really am going back and forth on whether I should be rooting for a shutout the rest of the way or to see a 1-3" event. I just don't see us getting a big event (5"+), with no blocking any kind of strong SLP will cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The placement of the anomalies look good. We know how they'll probably end up though. Yeah, if that analog map verifies it's going to take some serious dodging to not see atleast a little snow, IMO...kind of why I am torn between seeing snow and rooting for a shutout. Be nice to just take the shutout and suck it up for this winter, just banking another bad winter. I don't get that excited for snow into March, ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Of course some of this to the south is ice(too bad were this far out): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=02&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=06&fhour=276¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Wow, you can say that again!! It is WAY overdone on the SN for places like N GA eastward to CUB where most of the QPF falls as ZR or IP. ATL looks like mainly ZR with some snow possible at the end. (1" or less). This algorithm is horrible as it gives AHN to NE ATL burbs near 12" of SN!! Obviously, the model is not really producing anything of the sort. It is producing near 1" of qpf, mainly as ZR/IP as 850's and 850 TD's are in the +1 to +3 C range. Even if nearly all of that were IP and I assumed 1" of SN on the backend (and that's generous IMO), the accumulation would not exceed 6" at the very most in AHN and would likely be more like 3-5" in reality. I'm really surprised to see a GFS based clown so overstated. I knew that the Euro ones were bad but this one surprises me. To see cr*p like this really is a problem when it gets out to places like FB and Twitter. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 LOL, it's more of we got 2-3 more weeks of winter and then I won't log back on till cane season. Although with another boring cane season is possible with a lingering nino it could be a real dud. Just thinking about how uneventful this past hurricane season was and with how uneventful this winter season has been, zzzzzzzz.... The cold is impressive to end winter in otherwise boring winter. Just looking at the EPS 2m temps, I don't recall it being this call this far out from day 5 on, not even last winter was it this cold for the SE. From day 5 on it has 2m's between -4C to -8C from day 5 - 15. That's impressive, I guess that would be 7 to 15 below normal for 10 days... Edit: I really am going back and forth on whether I should be rooting for a shutout the rest of the way or to see a 1-3" event. I just don't see us getting a big event (5"+), with no blocking any kind of strong SLP will cut. We would have to have a true 50/50 or a perfectly placed PV to act as a block........ What could go wrong?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 We would have to have a true 50/50 or a perfectly placed PV to act as a block........ What could go wrong?? Yep, why if you want snow I think a weak wave would be best bet, a big phaser would be great but would cut west of us, IMO...although Franklin may want a big phaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I guess we have nothing else interesting going on, unless you watch coverage of the Boston storm, but I can't believe we are tracking another 10+ day winter storm!? Why is this one going to be any different? The 6z GFS is a nice look, but will be gone in the next run or two, or be a warm snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I guess we have nothing else interesting going on, unless you watch coverage of the Boston storm, but I can't believe we are tracking another 10+ day winter storm!? Why is this one going to be any different? The 6z GFS is a nice look, but will be gone in the next run or two, or be a warm snow I say don't look at the GFS it's only going to be a roller coaster until it's actually decent (inside 120hrs)....I just look at Euro means basically each morning and evening, that's it. I leave it to the pbper's to talk about each GFS run, they really do change way to often to focus on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I guess we have nothing else interesting going on, unless you watch coverage of the Boston storm, but I can't believe we are tracking another 10+ day winter storm!? Why is this one going to be any different? The 6z GFS is a nice look, but will be gone in the next run or two, or be a warm snow Just because it has been that way so far doesn't mean it can't change. I still think the 18th to 20th looks like a good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I guess we have nothing else interesting going on, unless you watch coverage of the Boston storm, but I can't believe we are tracking another 10+ day winter storm!? Why is this one going to be any different? The 6z GFS is a nice look, but will be gone in the next run or two, or be a warm snow I think your right, But I'm holding out hope for a change in the pattern.. If it don't turn to Cold Rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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