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February pattern discussion


Typhoon Tip

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A cutter ia alleviation? Couldn't be more of the opposite. Say bye to your roofs, thanks euro!

We are at the Mercy of Mother Nature right now

 

I think we are going to have to thread the needle to get out of this snowpack without some sort of dis as tah. 

 

To me I think the absolute worst would be a pounding rain storm (wether it is 35F rain or 55F rain, both have their downsides for potential impact) followed by a fast return to -20 850's.  Then a repeat of that in another 5 days. With Ice dams all that water falling on roofs will find a way down, so unless you have created a valley ( A break somewhere in the ice damming) for water to fall to the ground,  the water will find it's way thru the roof into houses

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Ensembles still want to run the low west it seems. Looks like snow and ice prior.

Roof damage thread should be busy. I'm not sure what ppl should hope for to get out of this Snow pack situation best. Periods of boring sunny weather a few degrees above normal would seem like best way out

 

WPC still is waiting for GFS to get on board weekend storm till it buys a ticket

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1424122179

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Ensembles still want to run the low west it seems. Looks like snow and ice prior.

At 144 hr, I see the ensemble mean with the low 200 mi. further ssw in northern W. VA., whereas the op has it just e of Buffalo.  Also, the 850 mb 0° line on the ensemble mean runs from n RI to Marshfield, but the op has it up through central VT and NH.  Much weaker system on ensembles.

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Roof damage thread should be busy. I'm not sure what ppl should hope for to get out of this Snow pack situation best. Periods of boring sunny weather a few degrees above normal would seem like best way out

If things break right, this pack will present the opportunity for historic flooding around here. Time a cutoff Rainer with new moon and Peabody will be done for days.

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At 144 hr, I see the ensemble mean with the low 200 mi. further ssw in northern W. VA., whereas the op has it just e of Buffalo. Also, the 850 mb 0° line on the ensemble mean runs from n RI to Marshfield, but the op has it up through central VT and NH. Much weaker system on ensembles.

Yeah it's weak luckily. Still don't buy it yet.

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I just did a quick number crunch based on GEFS output for my area. I ADDED ten degrees due to outputs over snow cover being crazy. GEFS says I average 12 degrees for the rest of Feb. That would be astonishingly 20 degrees below normal, saying I would finish -15 for the month. The combo of record snow and record cold is totally unprecedented. Look at how much BHO blew away their Jan Feb record

BHO Snowiest January-February, inches (1886-2015):
 
1) 114.2 in 2015 (through Feb 15 at 1:00 PM EST)
2) 77.9 in 1948
3) 70.2 in 2005
4) 68.7 in 1904
5) 67.5 in 1920
6) 66.9 in 1994
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Roof damage thread should be busy. I'm not sure what ppl should hope for to get out of this Snow pack situation best. Periods of boring sunny weather a few degrees above normal would seem like best way out

 

WPC still is waiting for GFS to get on board weekend storm till it buys a ticket

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1424122179

Amazing the amount of roofs that haven't even been touched; any liquid precip at this point would be disastrous.

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At 144 hr, I see the ensemble mean with the low 200 mi. further ssw in northern W. VA., whereas the op has it just e of Buffalo.  Also, the 850 mb 0° line on the ensemble mean runs from n RI to Marshfield, but the op has it up through central VT and NH.  Much weaker system on ensembles.

In 78 with a pack that was 6 inches w/e it was epically boring for 6 weeks and things just melted quietly. Unfortunately I don"t see that happening , instead the pack will grow and saturate more and more until the warmth overcomes. 

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In 78 with a pack that was 6 inches w/e it was epically boring for 6 weeks and things just melted quietly. Unfortunately I don"t see that happening , instead the pack will grow and saturate more and more until the warmth overcomes.

After the blizzard of 78, there was no activity for a month. Then there was an early march storm that dumped 6-10 and I think that was it. I was in town for the march event and it was still on top of impressive depth.

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Ensembles still want to run the low west it seems. Looks like snow and ice prior.

Each run trickles farther and farther east. How many times have we seen this play out? It's a SWFE that ends as 32-33 and drizzle then quick freeze up..Nothing melts..we add weight and density to the pack and track the one after it

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This is the defining comparison month 1934, below is BOS 2015, below that is 1934

DY MAX MIN AVG DEP HDD CDD WTR SNW DPTH SPD SPD DIR MIN PSBL S-S WX SPD DR
================================================================================

1 30 12 21 -9 44 0 0.00 0.0 M 11.8 22 270 M M 4 29 270
2 31 10 21 -9 44 0 0.78 16.2 M 18.0 36 50 M M 10 1289 45 50
3 22 6 14 -16 51 0 0.00 0.0 M 13.0 24 300 M M 3 89 33 300
4 38 14 26 -4 39 0 0.01 0.0 M 9.3 20 230 M M 8 26 220
5 36 7 22 -8 43 0 0.09 0.8 M 14.7 30 320 M M 8 18 40 310
6 21 5 13 -17 52 0 T T M 11.5 21 300 M M 4 29 300
7 29 16 23 -7 42 0 0.07 0.9 M 10.7 20 240 M M 8 1 26 230
8 29 13 21 -10 44 0 0.37 7.4 M 13.5 22 30 M M 10 1 28 40
9 25 14 20 -11 45 0 0.88 14.8 M 15.0 26 30 M M 10 129 32 20
10 30 14 22 -9 43 0 0.05 0.7 M 11.2 21 360 M M 8 19 24 350
11 25 14 20 -11 45 0 0.01 0.5 M 11.7 23 20 M M 8 189 31 40
12 30 16 23 -8 42 0 0.03 1.0 M 5.3 16 330 M M 9 18 21 330
13 22 7 15 -16 50 0 0.00 0.0 M 15.5 28 290 M M 3 8 37 300
14 30 3 17 -15 48 0 0.23 3.2 M 9.7 22 120 M M 7 1 24 320
15 20 -2 9 -23 56 0 0.39 13.0 M 20.7 33 310 M M 7 129 51 280
================================================================================
SM 418 149 688 0 2.91 58.5 191.6 M 107
================================================================================
AV 27.9 9.9 12.8 FASTST M M 7 MAX(MPH)
MISC ----> # 36 50 # 51 280
=============================================================================
1934-02-01	37	29	33.0	32	0	0.50	6.5	1
1934-02-02	30	8	19.0	46	0	0.11	1.3	7
1934-02-03	22	3	12.5	52	0	0.00	0.0	6
1934-02-04	22	8	15.0	50	0	0.10	1.1	6
1934-02-05	21	9	15.0	50	0	0.00	0.0	5
1934-02-06	17	3	10.0	55	0	T	T	5
1934-02-07	24	1	12.5	52	0	T	T	5
1934-02-08	14	-12	1.0	64	0	0.00	0.0	4
1934-02-09	3	-18	-7.5	72	0	0.00	0.0	4
1934-02-10	25	-2	11.5	53	0	0.00	0.0	4
1934-02-11	35	15	25.0	40	0	0.00	0.0	3
1934-02-12	39	24	31.5	33	0	0.00	M	3
1934-02-13	35	5	20.0	45	0	T	T	3
1934-02-14	19	-3	8.0	57	0	0.00	0.0	3
1934-02-15	44	13	28.5	36	0	0.00	0.0	T
1934-02-16	16	2	9.0	56	0	0.00	0.0	T
1934-02-17	26	12	19.0	46	0	T	T	T
1934-02-18	33	10	21.5	43	0	0.00	0.0	0
1934-02-19	41	24	32.5	32	0	0.47	2.0	T
1934-02-20	32	14	23.0	42	0	1.87	13.0	15
1934-02-21	36	10	23.0	42	0	0.00	0.0	12
1934-02-22	44	25	34.5	30	0	0.03	0.0	10
1934-02-23	40	11	25.5	39	0	0.52	0.0	7
1934-02-24	14	3	8.5	56	0	0.00	0.0	7
1934-02-25	19	3	11.0	54	0	0.09	1.0	7
1934-02-26	23	11	17.0	48	0	0.76	8.0	15
1934-02-27	19	8	13.5	51	0	0.00	0.0	14
1934-02-28	29	4	16.5	48	0	0.00	0.0	13
Sum	759	220	-	1324	0	4.45	32.9	-
Average	27.1	7.9	17.5	-	-	-	-	5.7
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Each run trickles farther and farther east. How many times have we seen this play out? It's a SWFE that ends as 32-33 and drizzle then quick freeze up..Nothing melts..we add weight and density to the pack and track the one after it

 

I actually think you are right, haha...this one isn't cutting.  The long wave pattern has been too stable.  This cold has some staying power.

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I just did a quick number crunch based on GEFS output for my area. I ADDED ten degrees due to outputs over snow cover being crazy. GEFS says I average 12 degrees for the rest of Feb. That would be astonishingly 20 degrees below normal, saying I would finish -15 for the month. The combo of record snow and record cold is totally unprecedented. Look at how much BHO blew away their Jan Feb record

BHO Snowiest January-February, inches (1886-2015):

1) 114.2 in 2015 (through Feb 15 at 1:00 PM EST)

2) 77.9 in 1948

3) 70.2 in 2005

4) 68.7 in 1904

5) 67.5 in 1920

6) 66.9 in 1994

114 in two months. No way.

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Mets agree

 

  1. @BruceDePrest Just seems really unlikely given all the cold/snowpack and current pattern.

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    @ericfisher @BruceDePrest Agree. Remember, this past storm was originally tracking west of us on both Euro and GFS (day 5 fcst)

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